Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent assertion that Pakistan, Russia, and China have secretly conducted nuclear tests has thrown a fresh spotlight on one of the world’s most opaque and anxiety-inducing security issues. The claim, made during a November 2 interview with CBS’ 60 Minutes, was immediately amplified by his former White House Economic Adviser Scott Bessent, who sat beside him in agreement. Trump’s words have not only reignited old suspicions but have also stirred up a storm of speculation, particularly regarding Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions and regional tremors that have puzzled experts and the public alike.
The controversy comes at a time when tensions between India and Pakistan are already simmering. In the spring of 2025, between April 30 and May 12, the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region experienced a series of four earthquakes, each measuring between 4.0 and 4.7 on the Richter scale. According to Mathrubhumi, these magnitudes were strikingly similar to seismic readings from Pakistan’s official nuclear tests in May 1998 at the Ras Koh Hills in Baluchistan. Back then, Pakistan had openly joined the nuclear club with two rounds of tests, Chagai-1 and Chagai-2, on May 28 and 30, 1998. The seismic signatures of those blasts were unmistakable, recorded by monitoring stations around the globe.
So when similar tremors struck again in 2025, especially amid heightened military tension between India and Pakistan, rumors swirled. Was Pakistan secretly testing nuclear weapons again? Or were these simply natural earthquakes in one of the world’s most geologically active regions?
To unravel the mystery, India’s National Centre for Seismology conducted a thorough analysis of the seismic data. Their conclusion, as reported by Mathrubhumi, was clear: the tremors were normal tectonic earthquakes, not nuclear detonations. This assessment was echoed by the United Nations’ Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO), which operates more than 300 monitoring stations worldwide. The CTBTO found “absolutely no signs of any nuclear test happening anywhere in the world during that period.”
Further evidence pointed away from the nuclear hypothesis. The epicenters of the quakes were hundreds of kilometers from the Ras Koh Hills, Pakistan’s only known nuclear test site. As experts pointed out in The Economic Times, it would make little sense for Pakistan to risk testing at an unprepared, unmonitored location, especially given the logistical and security challenges involved.
Yet, the region’s geology does little to soothe nerves. The Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands are where the Indian Plate collides with the Eurasian Plate, creating intense seismic activity. Major earthquakes are tragically common: on November 3, 2025, a magnitude 6.3 quake struck Mazar-i-Sharif in Afghanistan, killing seven people. Just months earlier, a devastating 6.0 quake had claimed more than 2,200 lives in the same area. These disasters, as Mathrubhumi notes, are reminders of the region’s natural volatility, not evidence of clandestine nuclear activity.
Despite the scientific consensus, conspiracy theories have proven stubbornly resilient. Trump’s claim poured fresh fuel on these suspicions, with his suggestion that America’s own plans to resume nuclear testing are a response to alleged violations by rivals. In Pakistan, officials wasted no time rejecting the idea. As quoted in The Economic Times, a senior Pakistani official stated, “Pakistan was not the first to carry out nuclear tests and will not be the first to resume nuclear testing,” reaffirming the country’s moratorium on nuclear explosions since 1998.
But the rumors didn’t stop there. Social media lit up with uncorroborated claims in May 2025, including stories about Indian missile strikes on Pakistan’s Kirana Hills, supposedly a nuclear storage site, and sightings of a U.S. “Nuclear Emergency Response” aircraft over Pakistan. None of these tales were verified by official sources, and most analysts dismissed them as misinformation amplified during a tense period of military exchanges dubbed “Operation Sindoor.”
The deeper mystery, however, is not just about seismic readings or secret tests, but about who really controls Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. The Economic Times highlighted allegations by former CIA officer John Kiriakou, who claimed that during Pervez Musharraf’s presidency in the early 2000s, the Pentagon effectively took control of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Islamabad has vehemently denied such assertions, insisting that oversight has always remained with its military and civilian leadership. Still, Washington’s longstanding concerns about “loose nukes” in Pakistan are well documented. NBC News reported in 2011 that the U.S. has a contingency plan to “snatch-and-grab” Pakistan’s nuclear weapons if they are ever deemed a threat to American interests.
Since 9/11, the U.S. is said to have provided technical assistance to help Islamabad strengthen the safety of its command-and-control systems, but the true extent of American involvement remains classified. The contrast between Trump’s claim of Pakistani autonomy and allegations of U.S. oversight underscores just how little is publicly known about the real balance of power.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s nuclear program is evolving. According to the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency’s 2025 threat assessment, cited by The Economic Times, Pakistan is actively modernizing its arsenal and developing short-range, lower-yield battlefield nuclear weapons, intended for use against Indian conventional forces. This shift from strategic deterrence to tactical capabilities is potentially destabilizing, raising the risk of escalation in any future conflict. Experts and politicians have repeatedly claimed that testing would be required to validate such new weapons, yet there is no public evidence of renewed nuclear testing.
This contradiction—modernization without visible tests—adds another layer to the enigma. Trump’s assertion, lacking substantiation, appears to serve a political purpose by implying that rivals are already violating test bans, thus justifying possible U.S. nuclear tests. As The Economic Times notes, “the controversy triggered by Trump’s words is less about what he revealed and more about what remains hidden.”
Pakistan’s nuclear policy, since its 1998 tests, has relied on its arsenal as a shield against India, allowing it to deter conventional retaliation while pursuing other strategic goals. But the country’s dire economic straits—dependent on loans from the World Bank and IMF—make the prospect of renewed testing, and the inevitable sanctions that would follow, a dangerous gamble. Despite pressure from hardliners, most analysts believe Pakistan’s military leaders are unlikely to risk it, at least for now.
Still, as long as trust between India and Pakistan remains fragile and rumors swirl with every tremor, the region will remain on edge. Trump’s comments, whether rooted in fact or political calculation, have only deepened the fog of uncertainty around one of the world’s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints.
