President Donald Trump’s recent diplomatic maneuver in the Middle East—a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas—has sparked a noticeable uptick in public approval for his handling of the conflict, according to several newly released national polls. Yet, this surge in foreign policy support has not translated into broader gains for Trump on the domestic front, where economic anxieties, health care frustrations, and political polarization continue to dominate the mood of the American electorate.
According to a survey conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research between October 9 and 13, 2025, 47% of U.S. adults now approve of Trump’s handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, marking a 10-point increase since September. This poll, which surveyed 1,289 adults and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, was taken after the ceasefire deal was announced but before hostages and prisoners were freed—a crucial distinction in understanding the immediate public reaction. As the AP-NORC Center notes, the ceasefire’s durability remains uncertain, and major questions linger about the U.S. plan for the region.
Interestingly, the uptick in support for Trump’s handling of the conflict is not limited to his traditional Republican base. The AP-NORC poll found that the increase was “driven primarily by Democrats viewing Trump more positively on this issue.” While partisanship remains a powerful force, even some Democratic-leaning independents expressed approval of the president’s role in negotiating the ceasefire. Jack Bornstein, a 61-year-old independent from Georgia who typically votes for Democrats, told the AP, “I give him credit for that. That’s probably the only thing I can say is positive for him,” referencing the release of Israeli hostages as part of the deal. Still, Bornstein voiced broader concerns about rising grocery prices, health care, and Trump’s character.
This pattern—praise for Trump’s foreign policy achievement, but persistent skepticism about his domestic performance—was echoed across other polls. An Emerson College Polling national survey conducted October 13-14, 2025, found that 47% of voters approved of Trump’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas (up from 30% earlier in the year), while 34% disapproved. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 active registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, attributed the shift in overall approval to independents, who moved from 25% approval in April to 43% in October. “Republicans generally approve of Trump’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas at 80% to 7%, while Democrats disapprove 57% to 19%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “The shift in overall approval comes from independents.”
Despite this boost on the international front, Trump’s overall job approval has remained stubbornly flat. The AP-NORC poll pegged his approval at about 40%, unchanged from September, while the Emerson survey found a steady 45% approval rating with disapproval ticking up to 48%. The AP-NORC Center also reported that 56% of adults had an unfavorable opinion of Trump, compared to 39% with a favorable view. Vice President JD Vance, meanwhile, garnered slightly lower approval and disapproval numbers, with a significant portion of the public unsure about him.
Why hasn’t the Middle East breakthrough translated into broader support? The answer, according to both polls and interviews, lies in the domestic concerns that continue to weigh heavily on Americans’ minds. The AP-NORC poll revealed that only about one-third of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, a figure that has remained steady throughout his second term. On health care, just 30% approve—a number that has not budged, even as the ongoing government shutdown has thrown the issue into sharper relief. Immigration, long a signature issue for Trump, also drew only about 40% approval.
Alison Weaver, a 62-year-old independent from Roanoke, Virginia, didn’t mince words when asked about Trump’s domestic record. “It’s horrifying,” she told the AP, criticizing what she described as “gestapo tactics” on immigration and laughing at the notion of Trump’s health care performance. Even among some of his supporters, there’s frustration. Justin Sanders, a 31-year-old Republican from Birmingham, Alabama, said, “It’s kind of cool he’s bringing peace, but I’m like, ‘You kind of need to worry about your American people instead of bringing peace to the world first.’ We need the inflation to go down. I’m tired of sitting here struggling going day by day trying to figure out if I’m going to eat or not.”
The data suggest these concerns are widespread. The Emerson poll found that 52% of voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared to 37% who approved. When asked about their own finances, 40% said their household was worse off than a year ago, and only 30% said they were better off. The economy topped the list of issues facing the country (31%), followed by threats to democracy (23%), immigration (13%), health care (9%), crime (8%), and housing affordability (6%). Younger voters and those in their forties were especially likely to report feeling “worse off” financially, highlighting the generational divide in economic optimism.
Broader pessimism about the country’s trajectory is also apparent. The AP-NORC poll found that about 69% of adults felt the U.S. was headed in the wrong direction, with younger adults, women, and Democrats expressing the most pessimism. Adults under 30 were especially downbeat, with 81% saying the country was on the wrong track, compared to 58% of those 60 or older. Among Democrats, a staggering 93% said the country was headed in the wrong direction, compared to 39% of Republicans.
Meanwhile, the ongoing government shutdown—now in its third week as of mid-October—has added another layer of uncertainty. Nearly half of voters (49%) told Emerson College Polling that the shutdown was having “no real impact” on their household, but 30% reported a minor impact and 14% a major impact. The shutdown has brought issues like health care cuts and hospital closures to the forefront, further complicating the political landscape as the 2026 midterm elections approach.
Looking ahead, the electorate remains deeply divided. The Emerson poll found a near-even split on the generic congressional ballot for 2026, with 44% planning to vote Democratic and 43% Republican. In a hypothetical 2028 presidential race between California Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President JD Vance, the numbers were similarly close: 46% for Vance, 45% for Newsom. “It will be interesting to see whether ‘threats to democracy’ will influence voter attitudes, or if the dominant factor continues to be the economy, which voters, particularly women and younger voters, see as heading in the wrong direction,” Kimball observed.
As the dust settles from the Gaza ceasefire deal, it’s clear that while President Trump has earned some rare bipartisan praise for his role in the Middle East, the enduring weight of domestic worries—especially economic ones—continues to shape the political climate. With a pivotal election season on the horizon and voters split on nearly every major issue, the coming months promise to be anything but predictable.
