There’s hardly a day that passes in Mexico without the shadow of U.S. President Donald Trump looming large over the nation’s politics. From drug trafficking to migration, money laundering, and the fate of trade agreements, the influence of the United States—particularly under Trump’s administration—has become a constant, sometimes overwhelming, presence in Mexico’s public life. As August 2025 unfolds, the relationship between the two neighbors is marked by a series of high-stakes confrontations, uneasy cooperation, and a relentless balancing act performed by Mexican leaders.
According to EL PAÍS, the past week alone has been a whirlwind of headline-grabbing events that underscore just how tightly Mexico’s fate is intertwined with decisions made north of the border. Washington kicked off its latest round of actions by accusing two businessmen of bribing state oil giant Pemex. This was swiftly followed by the extradition of 26 cartel prisoners to the U.S., and the dramatic arrest of Carlos Treviño, the last director of Pemex under Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration, in Texas. The details of Treviño’s arrest were murky at best—initially reported as an extradition, later reclassified as an immigration-related detention. Mexican authorities now say he will be returned to Mexico to face ongoing legal proceedings for criminal association and illicit assets.
But these legal dramas are just one thread in a much larger tapestry. The Trump administration’s approach—described by analysts as a mix of carrots and sticks—shows little sign of strategic coherence, but plenty of raw power. Trump himself made headlines with an unvarnished declaration: “Mexico does what we tell them to do. And Canada does what we tell them to do.” Such statements, while jarring, have become par for the course, and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has learned to respond with a shrug. “Well, you know how the president expresses himself,” she told reporters, suggesting that beneath Trump’s bravado, the gears of bilateral agreements are still grinding forward.
Yet, if there’s one area where the U.S. demands are non-negotiable, it’s security. The fight against drug cartels and organized crime has taken on new urgency, with Washington insisting on visible results. Stepping into this fraught landscape is Omar García Harfuch, Mexico’s security minister, whose own life reads like a crime thriller. As Bloomberg recounts, García Harfuch survived a brazen cartel assassination attempt in 2020, when masked gunmen ambushed his armored SUV in one of Mexico City’s wealthiest neighborhoods. That harrowing morning left a lasting mark on the battle-tested cop, who now finds himself at the center of efforts to pacify one of the world’s most violent nations—while also placating the ever-watchful Trump administration.
García Harfuch’s strategy is to deliver results, and fast. In 2025, he and President Sheinbaum have showcased a string of successes: drug seizures, dismantled laboratories, and the capture of high-profile criminals. These visible victories are meant to reassure both the Mexican public and U.S. officials that progress is being made. At the same time, García Harfuch has had to navigate a series of controversial actions, such as the unexplained flight of a U.S. drone over Valle de Bravo on August 13. He insists that the drone’s mission is under investigation at the request of the Mexican government, but the incident has fueled suspicions about the extent of U.S. operations on Mexican soil.
Behind the scenes, the rules of engagement between the two countries have grown increasingly opaque. The transfer of prisoners to the U.S. without formal extradition orders is justified as a matter of national security, while the legal justifications for other cross-border actions—like the entry of U.S. agencies into Mexican territory, most dramatically illustrated by the kidnapping of cartel figure ‘El Mayo’ Zambada in July 2024—remain murky. “It’s been going on for eight months and it feels like three years,” says Josué González, a security expert at UNAM’s faculty of political and social sciences, reflecting on the intensity of the daily exchanges. “Nothing like this has ever been seen in this entire modern era. It doesn’t seem like international or diplomatic relations, but rather a negotiation with a company 20 times smaller.” González describes Trump’s posture as “absolute power” over Mexico, with “brutal” levels of pressure.
Despite the relentless demands, analysts say Mexico is coping—barely. “Without raising the tone, because it can’t,” González explains, Mexico is delivering tributes in the form of operational successes and avoiding incidents “that would have been impossible a few years ago.” Internationalist Aribel Contreras, from Universidad Iberoamericana, offers a nuanced perspective. While she repudiates Trump’s threats, she also sees a silver lining: “For those of us who disagree with these administrations of the 4T [the Fourth Transformation], which pulverize democracy, trample on institutions, and dilute the three branches of government, Trump is preventing this government’s agenda from penetrating.” Contreras is quick to point out, however, that the migration policies of the previous administration were “a mess,” and that populism on both sides—Sheinbaum’s “in Mexico only the people govern” and Trump’s own rhetoric—serves their respective political bases.
What remains uncertain is whether the leaders of Mexico, the U.S., and Canada can resolve the simmering trade disputes that threaten economic stability across North America. Trump has forced everyone into bilateral talks, a move that Contreras argues Mexico and Canada should have resisted, given the framework of their shared trade agreement. Yet, as González notes, “At no point will these relations be diplomatic, and we will always be subject to the ups and downs and impacts of his statements. Mexico only has to manage this. And we can no longer rule out other actions, with him or with whoever comes next.”
Adding to the complexity is the 10-point plan unveiled by U.S. ambassador Ronald Johnson during a 90-day tariff truce. The plan, which reads like a list of marching orders, includes prisoner transfers, reducing migration and fentanyl trafficking, targeting cartel finances, managing water transfers across the border, and even cooperation in the 2026 World Cup. Of particular note is point seven: the designation of cartels as terrorist organizations, which Johnson says “unlocks a wide range of new powers and resources to combat them.”
With the stakes so high and the pressure unrelenting, Mexico’s leaders are left with little room to maneuver. The daily reality is one of constant negotiation, tactical retreats, and the occasional small victory. For now, the only certainty is that the Trump factor isn’t going anywhere—and Mexico must find a way to ride out the storm, one day at a time.
