On Monday, September 29, 2025, President Donald Trump reignited controversy in the entertainment world by renewing his threat to slap a 100% tariff on all movies not made in the United States. This bold move, announced via his Truth Social platform, has sent shockwaves through Hollywood, international film hubs, and even small-town theaters, as industry players scramble to decipher what this could mean for the future of filmmaking and moviegoing in America.
Trump’s post minced no words: "Our movie making business has been stolen from the United States of America, by other countries, just like stealing 'candy from a baby.' California, with its weak and incompetent Governor, has been particularly hard hit! Therefore, in order to solve this long time, never ending problem, I will be imposing a 100% Tariff on any and all movies that are made outside of the United States." According to BBC and UPI, this echoes similar threats made earlier in May after Trump met with actor Jon Voigt, but now the rhetoric is sharper and the stakes higher.
While Trump’s declaration is clear in its intent—protect American jobs and revive a struggling Hollywood—the details remain frustratingly vague. He did not specify when or how the tariff would take effect, nor did he clarify whether it would apply to films streamed on platforms like Netflix or only those shown in theaters. As reported by BBC, the White House has yet to comment on the specifics, and even industry analysts are left scratching their heads. Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell, remarked, "The threat of 100% tariffs on movies made outside of the US raises more questions than it does answers."
One of the thorniest issues is how to define what constitutes an "American-made" movie in today’s globalized industry. Daniel Loria, senior vice president of The BoxOffice Company, posed a scenario to UPI: "Is a movie written in the U.S. for a U.S. studio, funded by a U.S. production company set in a foreign country that then comes back and does all the effects and post-production work and marketing here—because the story elements include a foreign angle, does that count as a foreign-made film?" With financing, filming, post-production, and visual effects often spread across continents, drawing a clear line is anything but straightforward.
Hollywood’s reaction has been swift and deeply skeptical. As New York Magazine reported, studio executives, agents, and producers have described the plan as "ill-conceived" and "shitty for business." The timing is especially fraught, coming just before the Cannes Film Festival, a key marketplace for film acquisitions. Independent producers and sales agents are particularly alarmed, with one executive telling New York Magazine, "The tariffs basically destroy indie film. Anytime there’s an international co-production, forget American distribution because of this crazy tax. It’s a shitshow."
Even as Trump blames California’s Governor Gavin Newsom for Hollywood’s woes—saying, "California, with its weak and incompetent Governor, has been particularly hard hit!"—Newsom’s administration has been maneuvering to double the state’s television and movie tax incentives to $750 million per year. Newsom had previously offered to work with Trump to create tax credits for movies filmed in the US, but, as UPI notes, nothing came of it.
Beyond the glitz of Hollywood, the proposed tariff has real implications for local economies and small businesses. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce voiced deep concern, warning that the tariff could "weaken both economies" and jeopardize "thousands of middle-class jobs." US studios often rely on Canadian facilities, crews, and talent, and a tariff could disrupt this symbiotic relationship. Catherine Fortin-LeFaivre, senior vice president of international policy and global partnerships for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, told BBC, "These tariffs risk punishing US studios for filming in Canada by driving up costs, stifling investment, and undermining the competitive advantage our countries have built together."
Local theaters are also bracing for impact. Shannon Cole, executive director of the Vermillion Cultural Association in South Dakota, which owns the Coyote Twin Theater, expressed concern to UPI: "It means we’re looking at at least three more years of what’s already been a four-year downturn in the film industry. Everyone is out of the habit of going to the movies. Now, you’re saying potentially movies could end up costing more because studios will charge theaters more to show movies?" For many rural communities, higher costs could mean fewer options and even emptier auditoriums.
The economic rationale behind the move is also under scrutiny. According to BBC, the US film industry remains a global powerhouse, with $14.54 billion in production spending in 2024. However, that figure is down 26% since 2022, as productions increasingly decamp to countries like Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the UK, drawn by generous state-funded tax incentives. Recent big-budget films such as Deadpool & Wolverine, Wicked, and Gladiator II were all shot outside the US, highlighting just how international the business has become.
Complicating matters further, the US Supreme Court is set to decide on November 5, 2025, whether Trump even has the authority to unilaterally impose such tariffs, following a legal challenge. As New York Magazine pointed out, a senior adviser to Governor Newsom’s administration questioned Trump’s legal standing, arguing, "We believe he has no authority to impose tariffs under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act since tariffs are not listed as a remedy under that law."
For now, the tariff remains just a threat. White House spokesman Kush Desai told New York Magazine, "no final decisions on foreign-film tariffs have been made." The US Trade Representative and Commerce Department have yet to announce any concrete steps. Still, the uncertainty alone has roiled markets, with media stocks taking a brief hit before rebounding. Investors, according to Dan Coatsworth, don’t "appear to see this as a serious threat"—at least not yet.
Meanwhile, the UK government is watching closely, with a spokesperson for the Department for Business & Trade telling BBC they are awaiting details "to assess how it will impact the British film industry." The UK film sector, which employs millions and generates billions for the economy, could face significant challenges if the US follows through.
Trump’s tariff threats are part of a broader pattern of protectionist measures. On the same Monday, he announced 10% tariffs on softwood timber and lumber imports, as well as 25% levies on kitchen cabinets, vanities, and upholstered wooden furniture, effective from October 14, 2025. A recent wave of tariffs also targeted branded or patented drug imports and other goods, stoking further uncertainty in global trade.
As the industry waits for clarity, one thing is certain: the debate over how to protect American filmmaking in an interconnected world is far from over. With the Supreme Court decision looming and Hollywood’s future hanging in the balance, both sides are digging in for what could be a blockbuster showdown.
