On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump made a move that would send ripples through the global coffee trade and beyond: he announced sweeping tariffs of at least 10% on nearly all U.S. trading partners, with the aim of encouraging companies to bring production back to American soil. This bold economic gambit, however, quickly escalated into a far-reaching trade conflict, with some countries facing even steeper penalties. By August, both India and Brazil found themselves hit with a punishing 50% tariff on their exports to the United States—India for its ongoing purchases of Russian oil, which Trump claimed aided President Putin’s war in Ukraine, and Brazil in response to what Trump described as a political “witch hunt” against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
For Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, the consequences have been immediate and dramatic. According to Cecafé, Brazil’s coffee exporters council, August 2025 marked the ninth consecutive month of declining coffee exports. The numbers speak volumes: Brazil shipped 3,144,422 bags of coffee in August, a 17.5% drop compared to the same month the previous year. Green coffee shipments fell by the same percentage, with Arabica beans down 11.2% and Robusta beans plummeting by 34.5%. Processed coffee, mostly soluble, also saw a decline of 17.6%.
Looking at the year to date, the trend is even more stark. From January to August 2025, Brazil’s coffee exports were down 20.9% compared to the same period in 2024, totaling just over 25.3 million bags. Green coffee exports fell by 22.4%, with Arabica shipments dropping by 13% and Robusta exports more than halved. The drop in processed coffee was less severe but still notable at 3.6%.
But it’s the U.S. market, traditionally Brazil’s largest customer, where the impact of Trump’s tariffs has been most acute. In August, exports to the United States tumbled 46% to 301,000 bags—down from 562,723 in August 2024—falling behind Germany, which imported 414,000 bags. As Márcio Ferreira, president of Cecafé, explained to Reuters, “The US ceased to be the largest buyer of our coffee in August, falling to second place with 301,000 bags imported—from deals made before the tariff came into effect—which meant a 46% drop compared to the same month in 2024 and a 26% drop compared to July this year. Thus, the Americans fell behind Germany, which imported 414,000 bags last month.”
Ferreira also noted that “the tariffs disrupted the market and opened the door to speculative movements.” Attempts to circumvent the tariffs by re-exporting beans through third countries have been largely dismissed. “Sending raw beans via third countries would be very easy for the American government to spot,” Ferreira said, emphasizing that such strategies offer little hope for exporters seeking to maintain access to the U.S. market.
The blow has been particularly harsh for Brazil’s instant coffee industry. Aguinaldo Lima, executive director at ABICS, which represents Brazil’s instant coffee producers, told journalists that exports to the U.S. in August fell nearly 60% compared to the previous year. “This is detrimental not only to our industries, but also to our trading partners in the United States,” Lima said, according to Reuters. Indeed, Brazil’s instant coffee exports to the U.S. in August were just 24,460 60-kilogram bags, down from 65,914 a year earlier.
The pain isn’t limited to Brazil’s relationship with the U.S. Exports to other major destinations have also plummeted: shipments to Italy fell by 23.62%, and to Belgium by a staggering 48.27% in the first eight months of the year. Yet, in a twist that underscores the shifting sands of global trade, exports to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia bucked the trend, growing strongly in August. Exports to Mexico and Colombia surged by 90% and 578% respectively, according to Cecafé, while Japan saw a 15.57% increase.
Trump’s tariffs, intended to bring business back to the U.S., may be having the opposite effect. As the cost and unpredictability of trading with the U.S. rise, countries like Brazil and India are seeking new partners. India, for instance, has moved closer to China both economically and diplomatically, as highlighted during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Security Summit on September 5, 2025. Kausik Basu, India’s former chief economic adviser, told Crime Crackdown in D.C. that India needs to “cultivate economic and diplomatic ties with countries like Mexico, Canada, and China. This also means strengthening trade and cooperation with other governments concerned about the impact of Trump’s tariffs, particularly in Europe and Latin America.”
Brazil, too, is diversifying its trade portfolio. Coffee exporters are increasingly looking to China as a new, more stable market. One coffee bean trader observed that instead of weakening Brazil, “it is pushing sellers closer to China.” As the U.S. market becomes less attractive, China’s familiarity with aggressive trade tactics and its ongoing trade war with the U.S. make it a logical alternative for countries seeking reliable partners.
Meanwhile, the broader geopolitical implications of Trump’s trade strategy are coming into sharp relief. In early September, Chinese President Xi Jinping, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and Russian President Vladimir Putin were seen in high spirits at a lavish Chinese military parade—a show of unity that some analysts say is being fueled, in part, by shared opposition to U.S. economic pressure. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Security Summit also saw warming ties between India and China, suggesting that U.S. tariffs are pushing some of the world’s largest economies away from Washington’s orbit and toward new alliances.
The fallout isn’t just diplomatic or economic; it’s also being felt at home in Brazil. Coffee is becoming more expensive for Brazilian consumers, contributing to inflation, as Celirio Inacio of the Brazilian coffee industry association (ABIC) explained to Reuters: “Coffee is becoming more expensive for consumers again, and this is causing complaints from consumers and will directly contribute to inflation here in Brazil.” The International Coffee Organization and Brazil’s national crop agency Conab have both warned that the tariffs could push prices higher globally.
As coffee futures fell in both New York and London in early September—driven by a stronger dollar and the uncertainty unleashed by the tariffs—the sense among traders, exporters, and economists is that Trump’s strategy may be backfiring. Rather than drawing jobs and investment back to the U.S., the tariffs are driving longtime partners into the arms of America’s rivals, redrawing the map of global trade in ways that may prove hard to reverse.
The world’s coffee market is just the latest arena where the costs of economic brinkmanship are being laid bare. As Brazil, India, and other nations look elsewhere for trade and stability, the U.S. finds itself facing not just lost business, but a shifting global order that could have consequences far beyond the price of a cup of coffee.
