In a region long fraught with political intrigue and shifting alliances, two of South America’s largest nations—Brazil and Venezuela—find themselves at the heart of a renewed U.S. foreign policy push under President Donald Trump. The past several weeks have seen a flurry of diplomatic maneuvering, military posturing, and back-channel negotiations that have left both allies and adversaries guessing at Washington’s true intentions.
According to O Estado de S.Paulo and Reuters, Trump’s Brazil strategy initially revolved around imposing stiff tariffs and sanctions. The stated aim was to pressure Brazilian authorities, particularly those presiding over the fate of former President Jair Bolsonaro, whose legal troubles have all but dashed his hopes of a 2026 comeback. Yet, rather than shielding Bolsonaro or diminishing the influence of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, these measures seemed to have the opposite effect: hastening Bolsonaro’s conviction while unexpectedly boosting Lula’s popularity.
Despite the economic strain, Brazil’s economy weathered the storm better than many had anticipated. U.S. business leaders—concerned about the impact of tariffs on essential imports like coffee and beef—warned the White House that American consumers could soon feel the pinch. Sensing the shifting winds, Trump recalibrated his approach. A brief but carefully orchestrated encounter with Lula at the United Nations on September 24, 2025, signaled the start of a new phase. Though the meeting lasted only “39 seconds,” as Trump himself quipped, it was the product of weeks of behind-the-scenes diplomacy, including a covert trip to Brasília by Trump’s special envoy Richard Grenell, a detail only recently revealed by Brazilian media.
Now, both presidents are preparing for further talks—by phone or videoconference in the coming days, and possibly face-to-face later. As officials in Washington and Brasília anxiously await the outcome, the big question is whether Trump genuinely seeks compromise or is simply setting the stage for another dramatic showdown. The consensus among diplomats is that Trump wants to cool tensions, but not entirely. He recognizes, thanks to Grenell and other advisors, that Bolsonaro’s political future is all but sealed. Still, Trump remains reluctant to fully abandon the Bolsonaro camp, seeing parallels between his own legal woes and those of his Brazilian ally.
The likely outcome? According to O Estado de S.Paulo, Trump is expected to keep tariffs on Brazil at 50% but expand the list of exempted goods, a move designed to protect both economies and preserve political face. Sanctions under the Magnitsky Act against Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and his wife will remain in place, but there are no immediate plans to broaden them to other officials. These measures, while modest, are intended to keep pressure on Lula’s government and Brazil’s judiciary to show leniency toward Bolsonaro and his supporters—perhaps through reduced sentences, an amnesty law, or allowing the ailing ex-president to serve any sentence under house arrest.
Yet, the path to détente is riddled with pitfalls. Both Trump and Lula are famously combative, and both are surrounded by advisors urging them to stand firm. The risk of a diplomatic misstep remains high, especially if either leader feels slighted during their upcoming conversations. As one seasoned observer put it, “If Lula tries to lecture Trump, or simply rubs him the wrong way in a conversation longer than the ‘39 seconds’ Trump says they spent together at the UN, all bets are off.”
Still, there are areas of potential cooperation. Chief among them is the critical minerals sector. Brazil boasts the world’s second-largest reserves of rare earth elements, trailing only China. The U.S., eager to reduce its dependence on Chinese supplies, sees an opportunity to forge a mutually beneficial partnership. Trump has made rare earths a centerpiece of his foreign economic policy, and Lula has reportedly signaled willingness to help pass legislation that would attract American investment. There is also talk of Brazil easing up on proposed regulations for digital speech and artificial intelligence—an issue that has alarmed Silicon Valley giants—and of collaborating to address the ongoing crisis in Haiti, a key driver of migration to the United States.
Meanwhile, just north of Brazil, the situation in Venezuela is taking on a more ominous tone. As Reuters and The New York Times report, the United States has deployed a formidable naval force to the Caribbean: seven destroyers, multiple amphibious landing craft, and a nuclear-powered attack submarine. Officially, the buildup is aimed at combating drug trafficking and criminal cartels, as Deputy White House chief of staff Stephen Miller stated on September 26, 2025. But experts like retired Adm. James G Stavridis dismiss this rationale as “operational overkill,” arguing that the true objective is to force President Nicolás Maduro from power.
“I think what they are trying to do is put maximum pressure…on the regime to see if they can get it to break…It’s gunboat diplomacy,” David Smilde, a Venezuela expert at Tulane University, told Reuters. The White House’s recent actions are only the latest chapter in a long history of American intervention in Latin America, from coups and election meddling to economic sanctions. Trump’s approach, however, is more blunt than most: labeling Maduro a cartel leader and “fugitive of American justice,” and circulating draft legislation that would grant the president sweeping authority to target drug cartels and any nation accused of harboring them.
The stakes are enormous. Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves, a fact not lost on Washington. Since the rise of Hugo Chávez in 1999, the U.S. has repeatedly sought to influence who controls these resources. In January 2019, Trump recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president, froze Maduro’s assets, and imposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil. After returning to office in January 2025, Trump dispatched Richard Grenell to Caracas in a bid to secure a license for Chevron to resume operations—a move designed to sideline competitors from China and Russia, now the main buyers of Venezuela’s crude.
Inside Venezuela, the situation is grim. Maduro, widely accused of rigging the 2024 elections, clings to power amid deepening economic hardship and allegations of human rights abuses. Many Venezuelans, even those who want Maduro gone, fear that U.S. intervention could unleash chaos. As one opposition politician told The New York Times, “And the cost for us Venezuelans, what will it be? What guarantee do we have that this (removal of Maduro) will translate into a recovery of our democracy?”
The coming weeks will test whether Trump’s recalibrated approach in Brazil and his hard line on Venezuela can achieve their intended results—or simply add new chapters to a long, complicated history of American involvement in the region. For now, the world watches as old rivalries and new opportunities collide, with the fate of millions hanging in the balance.
In this moment of high stakes and uncertain outcomes, the choices made in Washington, Brasília, and Caracas could shape the future of the hemisphere for years to come.
