In a week that has seen the United States flex its diplomatic and military muscle across multiple volatile regions, President Donald Trump’s recent maneuvers are drawing both praise and skepticism from international observers and domestic critics alike. With the ink barely dry on a sweeping executive order pledging to defend Qatar, and the unveiling of a historic peace accord between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the White House has positioned itself at the heart of two of the world’s most combustible geopolitical fault lines.
On October 3, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order that, in unmistakable terms, vowed to use all measures—including the US military—to defend Qatar. The order, as reported by BBC, states that Washington will view any armed attack on the energy-rich Gulf state as a threat to the United States itself, and will “take all lawful and appropriate measures—including diplomatic, economic, and, if necessary, military—to defend the interests of the United States and of the State of Qatar and to restore peace and stability.” In effect, this executive order creates a security pact between the US and Qatar that echoes the mutual defense promises of NATO’s Article 5, an extraordinary step for a bilateral relationship in the Middle East.
This move is all the more remarkable given Qatar’s transformation from regional pariah—subject to a diplomatic and economic boycott by its neighbors just a few years ago—to a central diplomatic player in the region. Today, Doha hosts the region’s largest US airbase at Al Udeid and serves as a critical mediator in ongoing conflicts, including the fraught negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Indeed, the political offices of Hamas are located in Doha, and the group is currently reviewing President Trump’s 20-point Gaza peace proposal, announced at the White House on September 29, 2025.
Trump’s commitment to Qatar comes in the wake of heightened security concerns. Last month, Israeli airstrikes on Qatari soil targeted Hamas leaders, resulting in the deaths of several lower-level members of the group and a Qatari security official. Earlier this year, Iran attacked Qatar in retaliation for American strikes against Iranian nuclear sites. These incidents have left many Gulf Arab states questioning whether their partnerships with the US, and the presence of American military bases, truly guarantee their security.
Qatar’s foreign ministry welcomed the executive order, describing it as “an important step in strengthening the two countries’ close defence partnership.” Yet, the timing and motivation behind Trump’s move have sparked debate in Washington and beyond. Former US ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro, quoted by the BBC, suggested that Trump was offering Qatar a substantial reward before securing clear assurances from Doha. “Trump’s security commitment to Qatar makes no sense unless they deliver a yes from Hamas, or expel them if they say no,” Shapiro said. Meanwhile, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz interpreted the move as granting “immunity to Hamas’ leadership when residing in Qatar, despite Netanyahu’s warning that they would not be safe wherever they go.”
Gulf analysts, however, argue that the guarantee is a crucial signal to a region shaken by Israel’s expanding use of force outside its borders and deepening doubts about the reliability of the US security umbrella. Firas Maksad of the Eurasia Group told BBC, “I do think it’s very much in the US interest to keep them onside,” adding that Saudi Arabia may soon seek a similar commitment.
The legal and political dimensions of the executive order are not lost on observers. By issuing the commitment as an executive order, Trump bypassed Congress, raising questions about its legal standing and permanence. Under the War Powers Act, Congress should be consulted before the president commits US forces to conflict. The order could be rescinded or amended by a future president and is already facing scrutiny from Democrats and even some within Trump’s own political base. Prominent far-right activist Laura Loomer suggested Qatar poses more of a threat than an ally, while radio host Mark Levin questioned whether the US would go to war with Israel if Hamas leaders in Qatar were targeted.
Adding another layer of controversy are the Trump family’s business ties to Qatar. In April 2025, the Trump Organization, managed by Trump’s sons Eric and Donald Jr., signed a deal to develop a luxury golf resort in Qatar, complete with Trump-branded beachside villas and an 18-hole course, in partnership with a Qatari government-owned developer. Qatar has also donated a 747 jetliner to the US, which Trump has said will replace Air Force One after his presidency and be displayed in his planned presidential library. Watchdog group Accountable.US, through Tony Carrk, accused Trump of blurring the lines between personal gain and national policy, stating, “Donald Trump apparently wants US taxpayers to foot the bill for potential military protection of his luxury Qatar golf course while currying favour with his Qatari-government-tied business partners.” The White House has firmly rejected these allegations, with Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly telling BBC, “President Trump’s assets are in a trust managed by his children. There are no conflicts of interest.”
While the Gulf simmers, Trump’s diplomatic ambitions have also reached the South Caucasus. As reported by Newsweek, the US-brokered Washington Accords between Armenia and Azerbaijan, unveiled in summer 2025, represent a significant bid to end decades of war and to recast the region’s geopolitical landscape. The centerpiece of the deal is the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a US-Armenian joint venture that links two parts of Azerbaijan separated by Armenian territory, but crucially, under Armenian sovereignty. The deal narrowly averted a possible Azerbaijani invasion after recent military defeats for Armenia and the displacement of 120,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh.
The agreement, which aims for normalization within three years, includes a $145 million US investment package and the construction of a $500 million AI factory in Armenia. The TRIPP corridor is restricted to commercial traffic only, with third-party inspections and no contact between Armenian officials and Azerbaijani transit personnel. This compromise was reached after the US rejected Azerbaijan’s demand for unimpeded access, including military cargo, through the so-called Zangezur Corridor.
The strategic importance of the South Caucasus is hard to overstate. The region is a critical junction for China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and the US-backed corridor is seen as a cost-effective way to disrupt China’s ambitions, limit Russian influence, and sideline both Iran and Turkey. As Nerses Kopalyan, a political scientist at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, told Newsweek, “TRIPP let the US knock down 10 birds with one stone.”
Yet, doubts remain. Tensions over Armenian prisoners of war in Azerbaijan persist, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reignited corridor rhetoric at the United Nations on September 26, 2025, despite the Trump-brokered agreement. Russia and Iran have voiced skepticism or outright concern, with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warning of potential “calibrated disruptions” and Iran wary of US intelligence activities under the guise of economic cooperation.
For many Armenians, the deal is both a source of hope and anxiety. Some see the American presence as a deterrent to Azerbaijani aggression, while others, like 60-year-old Ruzanna Tsatryan—displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023—fear the corridor could be used for military incursion under the “mask of trade.”
As the US convenes working groups and deepens investments in the region, the entry of Washington is widely seen as a game-changer. Whether these bold moves will bring lasting stability or spark new controversies remains to be seen, but for now, President Trump’s foreign policy is unmistakably reshaping the chessboard from the Gulf to the Caucasus.
