The geopolitical chessboard in the Caribbean has rarely looked as tense as it does in early November 2025. With the USS Gerald R. Ford, the United States’ most advanced aircraft carrier, steaming toward Venezuelan waters, and B-52 and B-1 bombers conducting simulated bombing runs within just 20 miles of Venezuela, the world is watching a high-stakes standoff unfold. According to recent reports from multiple major outlets, U.S. President Donald Trump has not only reviewed a target list for Venezuela but also signaled that missile strikes could be “imminent.” The deployment of the Ford carrier strike group now means that about 10 percent of the U.S. Navy’s total deployed assets are concentrated in the Southern Command area, which covers Central America, South America, and the Caribbean—a striking show of force not seen in the region for years.
What’s driving this dramatic escalation? The answer, it seems, is a blend of frustration with diplomatic stalemates, a response to Venezuela’s recent contested election, and a new willingness in the Trump administration to try something “different, novel, and unprecedented” against the regime of Nicolás Maduro. As Trump put it in mid-October, “We are certainly looking at land now, because we’ve got the sea very well under control.” This marks a significant shift from the original counternarcotics mission, which had already seen more than a dozen strikes on suspected drug-laden vessels and a clampdown on trafficking routes in the southern Caribbean.
But the focus is no longer just about drugs. What began as a campaign against cartels—newly designated as foreign terrorist organizations—may now expand to include direct strikes on land-based targets central to the Maduro regime’s so-called state-crime nexus. This network, which implicates Venezuela’s armed forces and political elites in illicit activities ranging from drug trafficking to illegal mining, has long been a thorn in Washington’s side. Trump’s approach, however, stops short of a full-scale ground invasion—a strategy he’s consistently rejected since his 2016 campaign. Instead, the administration appears to favor what experts are calling a “regime collapse” theory: limited, precise strikes aimed at catalyzing internal movement against Maduro, all while keeping U.S. personnel out of harm’s way.
The prospect of such a campaign has electrified Venezuela’s battered democratic opposition, especially after what many international observers have called a brazenly stolen election in July 2024. Opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado captured the mood in a recent interview, saying, “We’ve had thousands of protests, peaceful rallies, demonstrations. We’ve gone through every single institutional means.” In other words, as she sees it, every peaceful avenue has been exhausted—leaving only more forceful options on the table.
Trump himself has cast doubt on the idea of a full-blown war, but when asked whether Maduro’s days are numbered, he responded emphatically, “yes.” The theory of regime collapse, as opposed to boots-on-the-ground regime change, appeals to a U.S. electorate weary of foreign entanglements, yet still deeply concerned by the threat posed by Venezuela’s criminal networks and their potential impact on homeland security. According to polling cited by The Atlantic, much of Latin America would welcome Maduro’s departure by military means, a sign of just how isolated the Venezuelan leader has become in the region.
Still, the question remains: what would regime collapse actually look like? There are several scenarios, none of them simple. One possibility is that U.S. strikes on key targets—drug trafficking sites, illegal mining operations, and even oil infrastructure—could weaken the regime’s finances and undermine its grip on power. Another scenario envisions the Venezuelan armed forces, long considered both the backbone and the Achilles’ heel of Maduro’s rule, finally breaking ranks. Though deeply penetrated by the ideology of Chavismo and mired in corruption, the military has its own grievances, from eroded chains of command to lack of upward mobility. If faced with the unprecedented shock of U.S. missile strikes, some analysts believe the armed forces could act in self-preservation, perhaps forcing Maduro into exile or even capturing him and handing him over to the United States in exchange for the $50 million bounty on his head.
Recent history offers sobering lessons. The United States has tried almost every non-military lever against Maduro: diplomatic isolation, crippling sanctions, support for an interim government led by Juan Guaidó, and even backing an investigation for crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court. Each move brought incremental pressure, but none managed to dislodge Maduro or restore democracy. As The Atlantic notes, “no strategy has even managed to achieve less ambitious objectives—changing the regime’s behavior or putting an end to rigged elections.”
Efforts at negotiation have repeatedly faltered. Chavismo, the left-wing movement founded by Hugo Chávez and now led by Maduro, has outmaneuvered Washington through countless rounds of talks, often pocketing concessions before walking away from the table. The Biden administration’s year-long negotiations culminated in the 2024 stolen election, leaving the opposition more desperate than ever for outside help.
There’s also a covert side to the new U.S. strategy. Trump’s administration has greenlit more robust CIA operations in Venezuela, including the use of cyber tools to block payments to the military and information warfare campaigns designed to convince regime insiders that a transition is inevitable. According to The Atlantic, the CIA could even reactivate the Naval Station at Guantanamo Bay to hold high-level prisoners from the Maduro regime, further increasing the pressure.
Maduro, for his part, has reportedly tried to negotiate his own exit, offering Trump deals that would see him step down in 2028 or give U.S. companies priority access to Venezuelan resources. Trump has confirmed both the offers and his decision to turn them down, suggesting that a diplomatic off-ramp is unlikely—at least for now.
What happens next is anyone’s guess. The Venezuelan military, so far united, could fracture under the weight of U.S. strikes and internal discontent. The opposition, which claims to have won 70 percent of the vote in the last election, maintains contacts within the armed forces and is ready to step in if the regime falls. Trump, by cutting off diplomacy and speaking directly to Venezuela’s military, seems determined to drive a wedge between Maduro and his last line of defense.
Of course, there are risks. Venezuela has never experienced modern warfare on its soil, and any escalation could have unpredictable consequences. The U.S. must contend with sophisticated air defenses, including Russian-supplied S-300 systems, and the possibility of regional backlash if things go awry. Yet, as Bloomberg reported on November 6, 2025, Trump’s view is clear: “Maduro’s days in power could be numbered.”
For now, the world waits. With U.S. forces massed in the Caribbean and covert operations ramping up, the next move could reshape not just Venezuela, but the entire region’s political landscape. The stakes, as both sides surely know, could not be higher.
