The world of cryptocurrency has always been a realm of high stakes, rapid innovation, and, occasionally, dramatic controversy. But few recent developments have shaken the industry quite like the wave of presidential pardons sweeping through its highest ranks. In October 2025, former President Donald Trump set off a political and financial firestorm by pardoning Changpeng Zhao (commonly known as CZ), the founder of Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. Now, speculation is mounting over whether Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the disgraced former CEO of FTX, might be next in line for clemency—a possibility that has the crypto world, and much of Washington, deeply divided.
According to Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, the odds of Trump pardoning SBF leapt to 25% in October 2025. This surge followed Trump’s decision to commute CZ’s prison sentence, which had stemmed from money laundering violations. As Blockchain Magazine reported, SBF is currently serving a 25-year sentence for misusing over $8 billion in customer funds after FTX’s infamous collapse in late 2022. Convicted on seven counts of fraud and conspiracy in 2024, SBF became the face of crypto’s most devastating scandal. The severity of his sentence has been hotly debated: some critics argue it’s too lenient, given the enormous losses suffered by investors, while others see it as a chance for reflection and, perhaps, redemption.
But the sudden possibility of a pardon—sparked by Trump’s recent actions—has thrust the crypto industry into a new era of political intrigue. As The Wall Street Journal noted, Trump’s pardon of CZ was announced on October 23, 2025, and quickly became a symbol of the shifting relationship between the U.S. government and the crypto sector. The White House Press Secretary, Carolyn Levitt, even declared, “The Biden administration’s war on cryptocurrency is over!” following the announcement. Yet, as the Journal observed, this may be more of a political maneuver than a true change in regulatory philosophy.
Changpeng Zhao’s journey from convicted felon to presidentially pardoned figurehead is a case study in the power of money and influence in Washington. After serving a four-month sentence for failing to prevent money laundering on Binance, CZ walked free thanks to a concerted lobbying effort. As The New York Times revealed, Binance hired high-powered lobbyists, including Ches McDowell—a close friend of Donald Trump Jr.—whose firm, Checkmate Government Relations, earned $7.1 million in just three months. McDowell personally received $450,000 for one month’s work lobbying the White House and Treasury on “executive relief.”
Binance also brought on Teresa Goody Guillén, a prominent crypto lawyer and former SEC chair contender under Trump, who has earned $290,000 in legal fees so far this year. These strategic hires were part of a broader push to align Binance with Trump’s increasingly pro-crypto stance. In July 2025, Trump signed the GENIUS Act, establishing a new regulatory framework for stablecoins—mirroring the approach recently adopted by Kyrgyzstan, which launched its own central bank digital currency (CBDC) on the BNB blockchain, with CZ’s direct involvement.
The pardon of CZ has had immediate and far-reaching effects. Binance’s native token, BNB, saw a rapid surge in value as major U.S. crypto exchanges like Kraken, Coinbase, and Robinhood rushed to list or expand support for it. The market interpreted Trump’s move as a signal that the regulatory environment was softening, boosting confidence across the sector. According to Polymarket, CZ’s odds of receiving a pardon reached as high as 64% in mid-October, and even after the news broke, they hovered around 45%. The pardon not only erased his criminal record but also effectively nullified the “lifetime ban from managing Binance” imposed by the 2023 settlement with U.S. authorities.
Yet, the question on everyone’s mind is: if CZ can be pardoned, what about SBF? While the odds for an SBF pardon have risen—from virtually zero to 25%—the debate is fierce. Industry experts are quick to point out the stark differences between the two cases. As one crypto law firm founder told Blockchain Magazine, “Unlike SBF or Do Kwon, CZ has not been accused of stealing user funds or defrauding customers. Binance is a legitimate exchange, and withdrawals have always functioned properly. His ‘crimes’ are related to compliance, not moral offenses.” The comparison underscores the gravity of SBF’s actions, which involved direct misappropriation of billions in client assets.
The political calculus is equally complex. SBF was once a major political donor, with deep connections across the aisle. Despite public outrage over his crimes, some believe Trump’s team might consider a pardon as a way to further rehabilitate the crypto industry’s reputation and solidify support among pro-crypto voters. However, the backlash is significant. Many in the industry and the broader public see a clear line between compliance failures and outright fraud, and they argue that pardoning SBF would undermine accountability and trust.
Trump’s own statements reflect the shifting winds. When asked about CZ’s pardon, Trump told reporters, “I’ve been told, a lot of support, he had a lot of support and they said that what he did is not even a crime, it wasn’t a crime, that he was persecuted by the Biden administration, and so I gave him a pardon at the request of a lot of good people.” This narrative provides political cover for CZ’s pardon, but it doesn’t translate easily to SBF’s situation, given the scale and nature of his offenses.
Meanwhile, the regulatory landscape is evolving. Trump’s appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC Chair in December 2024 marked a clear shift toward a more crypto-friendly approach. The SEC, under Atkins, dropped its lawsuit against Binance in May 2025, citing policy discretion. This, combined with the DOJ and Treasury settlement in November 2023, which saw Binance pay a $4.3 billion fine and CZ step down as CEO, has paved the way for Binance’s renewed global ambitions.
The pardons and regulatory shifts have also had international repercussions. Kyrgyzstan, with CZ’s guidance, launched a national stablecoin pegged to the Russian ruble, using Binance’s BNB blockchain. This move, announced just days after CZ’s release, exemplifies how intertwined crypto, politics, and global finance have become.
Still, the prospect of a pardon for SBF remains uncertain. While prediction markets reflect growing speculation, the weight of public opinion and industry sentiment leans heavily against such a move. As Blockchain Magazine put it, “The rising odds of an SBF pardon highlight the growing influence of crypto politics in Washington. What was once a fringe industry now sits at the center of national debate.”
As the dust settles, one thing is clear: the fate of crypto’s most controversial figures is no longer just a matter of law or finance. It’s a question of politics, power, and the future direction of an industry that’s still writing its own rules. Whether mercy or justice prevails, the decisions made in Washington will echo far beyond the world of digital assets.
