President Trump’s recent call for a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into the U.S. beef industry has ignited a fiery debate across the American food landscape. With accusations of price fixing and collusion swirling around the nation’s largest meatpacking firms, industry leaders, economists, and watchdogs are weighing in on what’s really driving up the price of beef—and who stands to gain or lose.
On November 7, 2025, the White House published four claims to justify the investigation, zeroing in on the so-called "Big Four" meat packers: JBS (Brazil), Cargill, Tyson Foods, and National Beef (majority-owned by Brazil’s Marfrig). According to Investigate Midwest, these companies now control roughly 85% of the U.S. beef processing market, a dramatic rise from just 36% in 1980. This concentration, the administration argues, has given the packers undue influence over cattle prices, ranchers’ livelihoods, and the cost of beef at grocery stores.
President Trump didn’t mince words in his social media post: "Action must be taken immediately to protect consumers, combat illegal monopolies and ensure these corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American people." His administration’s claims included that industry consolidation has "squeezed America’s cattle producers, shrunk herds, and jacked up prices at the grocery store." But as with most things in the beef business, the reality is more complicated than a single soundbite.
Fact-checking by Investigate Midwest confirms that the Big Four’s dominance is real. These companies own more than 70 meat brands, including household names like Hillshire Farm, Swift, Honeysuckle, and Jimmy Dean. The numbers are staggering: just 12 federally inspected plants accounted for nearly half of all U.S. beef production as of 2022. Since the 1970s, the share of the market controlled by the largest firms has soared, leaving many ranchers with only one viable buyer for their herds in any given region.
But is this market power solely responsible for higher beef prices? The answer, according to recent USDA research and a chorus of industry voices, is a resounding "not so fast." While consolidation has allowed packers to pay lower prices for cattle, it has also led to lower production costs and, at times, lower prices for consumers. A 2024 USDA report found, "Lower production costs did translate into lower consumer prices, increased consumption, and higher prices for cattle and hogs. However, with fewer rivals because of increased concentration, most of the studies found packers were also able to exercise some market power and pay lower prices for cattle than they would have had they faced more competitors."
Yet, the margin between what ranchers receive and what consumers pay has widened in recent years, indicating that packer profits have grown. Still, many economists and industry insiders point to a laundry list of other factors—rising labor costs, transportation expenses, supply chain disruptions, and even climate-related droughts—that have played a significant role in the price spikes seen at the checkout counter.
Julie Anna Potts, President and CEO of the Meat Institute, pushed back hard against the White House’s narrative. In a statement issued on November 18, Potts said, "Despite high consumer prices for beef, beef packers have been losing money because the price of cattle is at record highs. For more than a year, beef packers have been operating at a loss due to a tight cattle supply and strong demand." She emphasized the industry’s transparency and heavy regulation, noting that "the government’s own data from USDA confirms that the beef packing sector is experiencing catastrophic losses and experts predict this will continue into 2026."
Potts also invited President Trump and his team to visit beef facilities to see the "pride, skill, and dedication" of workers firsthand, and called for a "fact-based discussion about beef affordability and how best to meet the needs of American consumers, who are the industry’s most important stakeholders."
Veteran industry observer Steve Kay, writing in Beef Central on November 19, echoed Potts’s skepticism. "The meatpacking industry is highly regulated and transparent," Kay argued, dismissing Trump’s accusations as lacking merit. He pointed out that two of the Big Four—Tyson Foods and Cargill—are 100% U.S.-owned, while JBS and National Beef have Brazilian ties. Kay also disputed the 85% market share figure, estimating the true number at or below 80% based on his annual market data.
Kay highlighted the financial pain facing packers: Tyson Foods reported a $426 million operating loss in its beef segment for fiscal 2025, while JBS Beef North America posted a $554 million loss for the first nine months of 2025. "If U.S. beef packers had any significant ability to exercise market power, he is certain that the industry would not have record high cattle prices and packers would not be losing money," Kay wrote, quoting Oklahoma State University economist Derrell Peel.
So what’s really driving beef prices up? According to a November 12 editorial in The Wall Street Journal, the real culprit is a shrinking U.S. cattle herd. Years of drought and rising costs have driven the herd down 10.6% since July 2020, from 32.1 million to 28.7 million head by July 2025. The USDA recently revised its 2026 beef production forecast downward by 345 million pounds—a 2% year-over-year decline. Meanwhile, the U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef and quotas on Argentine imports, further tightening supply. When the Department of Agriculture suspended Mexican cattle imports this spring due to a parasite outbreak, the pressure on domestic supplies only grew.
Some ranchers, the Wall Street Journal noted, have benefited from these higher prices and have even lobbied to maintain import restrictions. As Jack Nicastro wrote in Reason magazine, "Since December 2020, the U.S. has seen a plummeting supply of beef cattle in part due to drought and higher input costs." He argued that blaming four-firm concentration for the recent price hikes is "unconvincing at best and, at worst, a deliberate smokescreen for restrictionist trade policies that have exacerbated the problem."
Recent history has shown how vulnerable the beef supply chain can be to shocks. A cyberattack in May 2021 on JBS plants delayed production across the country. In 2019, a fire at a Tyson slaughter plant in Kansas caused a 27% drop in cattle traded the following week. When so much of the nation’s beef flows through so few plants, any disruption can ripple through the entire supply chain, affecting everyone from ranchers to consumers.
As the DOJ gears up for its investigation, the debate over concentration, market power, and beef pricing is likely to intensify. For now, the facts point to a complex mix of market forces, regulatory realities, and global events—far from the simple story of villainous packers and powerless ranchers. The stakes are high, not just for the industry, but for every American family who puts beef on the dinner table.
