On November 7, 2025, President Donald Trump took to Truth Social with a fiery message: "I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who are driving up the price of Beef through illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation. We will always protect our American Ranchers, and they are being blamed for what is being done by Majority Foreign Owned packers, who artificially inflate prices, and jeopardize the security of our Nation’s food supply." Within hours, the White House echoed his call, announcing a Department of Justice (DOJ) probe into the nation’s largest meatpacking conglomerates.
The White House statement, published the same day, left little doubt about the administration’s focus. It singled out the so-called "Big Four"—JBS, Cargill, Tyson Foods, and National Beef—accusing them of wielding monopoly power and potentially violating federal antitrust laws "through coordinated pricing or capacity restrictions." These four firms, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), now control 85 percent of the U.S. beef processing market, a dramatic rise from 36 percent in 1980. The White House went so far as to label the foreign-owned meat packers "cartels," charging them with squeezing American cattle producers, shrinking herds, and jacking up prices at the grocery store.
Attorney General Pamela Bondi quickly confirmed the launch of the investigation on social media, stating that Assistant Attorney General Gail Slater, head of the DOJ’s Antitrust Division, and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins would lead the inquiry. While the Big Four are the initial focus, the DOJ made clear that other companies could face scrutiny should evidence of price-fixing or other anticompetitive practices emerge.
This isn’t the first time the meatpacking industry has come under the federal microscope. Back in 2020, the DOJ initiated a similar investigation after lawmakers raised concerns about the widening gap between the prices of live cattle and boxed beef. Companies like JBS and Tyson Foods acknowledged receiving subpoenas, though details remained scarce. More recently, in April 2025, the DOJ began scrutinizing egg producers—most notably Cal-Maine Foods—over suspicions of collusion to inflate egg prices, with Assistant Attorney General Slater again at the helm.
What’s driving this latest investigation? The answer, at least in part, is sticker shock. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data cited by Insight on November 12, 2025, the price of uncooked ground beef rose to $6.64 per pound—a 12.3 percent jump from a year earlier—while beef steaks climbed 12.7 percent to $12.26 per pound. These increases are more than four times the overall inflation rate, putting a noticeable dent in American wallets and stoking consumer frustration. The White House has argued that such price hikes are the result of artificial manipulation by dominant players in the industry.
But does the evidence support these allegations? That question is at the heart of a growing debate. While President Trump and administration officials have pointed to market concentration as a culprit, some analysts and agricultural economists see a more complicated picture. Data from the USDA, for instance, reveal that the inflation-adjusted farm-to-wholesale choice beef price spread—the difference between what packers pay farmers and what they get at the wholesale level—has actually narrowed in recent years. After peaking during the COVID-19 pandemic, this spread dropped from a high of $131 per hundredweight to just over $20 in August 2025. That narrowing suggests the packers may not have the pricing power needed to manipulate margins as alleged.
Moreover, recent profit-tracking by Drovers shows that meat packer margins have been negative for two consecutive years. For the week ending November 1, 2025, packers lost $170.55 per head, with projections for the year averaging a loss of $165.96 per head—worse than the previous year’s losses. In fact, from January to August 2025, packers received just 5 percent of each retail dollar for choice beef, while producers got 54 percent and retailers took the remaining 41 percent. These figures, according to Insight, cast doubt on the notion that packers are reaping windfall profits through collusion or manipulation.
So what’s really driving beef prices higher? Many experts point to old-fashioned supply and demand, compounded by natural and economic shocks. USDA data show that while total beef supply rose 3 percent in 2024, this was largely due to a 24-percent surge in imports. Domestic production remained flat, and beginning stocks—the beef left over from the previous year—fell sharply. Meanwhile, U.S. cattle inventory dropped 0.6 percent in 2025 to 86.7 million head, the lowest since 1951 and the sixth straight year of decline. Since 2019, the inventory has shrunk by 8.5 percent. With herds at historic lows, farmers and ranchers simply can’t ramp up production quickly enough to meet rising demand.
Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, explained to Insight, "It takes three years to get more cows—between making a decision, having that gestation period, having the calf born, raising the calf until it, too, can have a calf." In short, biology—not boardroom collusion—limits how fast supply can respond.
Mother Nature hasn’t helped. Drought has plagued much of the Western U.S., forcing ranchers to downsize herds as grazing land dried up and feed costs soared. At the same time, the USDA recently restricted imports of live cattle to prevent the spread of New World Screwworm, a devastating parasite advancing north from Central America. This move, reported by Reuters, further choked already tight supplies.
Despite these supply shocks, demand for beef remains robust. Kansas State University’s Monthly Domestic Meat Demand Indices show demand for all-fresh retail beef rose 7.01 percent in July 2025 compared to a year earlier, with choice beef demand up nearly 11 percent. When supply can’t keep pace, prices inevitably climb—no conspiracy required.
Of course, none of this means the DOJ investigation is merely political theater. Federal antitrust laws like the Sherman Act impose stiff penalties—up to $100 million in criminal fines—for proven violations such as price fixing, market allocation, or monopolization. The DOJ’s Antitrust Division, led by Assistant Attorney General Slater, has made clear that it is prioritizing consumer protection and will pursue both civil and criminal enforcement where warranted.
For companies under scrutiny, the stakes are high. A DOJ subpoena or civil investigative demand (CID) is no trivial matter. Legal experts, such as Dr. Nick Oberheiden of Oberheiden P.C., emphasize the importance of engaging experienced antitrust defense counsel immediately to navigate the risks and develop a sound response strategy. Missteps—like inadvertently disclosing incriminating information or failing to assert privilege—can turn an investigation into a crisis.
As the DOJ probe unfolds, the meatpacking industry faces a critical test. Whether the investigation uncovers illegal collusion or simply confirms the complex realities of a strained supply chain, one thing is certain: Americans will be watching closely, hoping for answers—and maybe, just maybe, some relief at the checkout counter.
