In July and early August 2025, the release of employment data in both the United States and Canada sent shockwaves through financial markets, ignited fierce political debates, and raised urgent questions about the integrity of official economic reporting. With job growth stalling on both sides of the border and the political temperature rising in Washington, the latest labor market numbers have become a lightning rod for controversy—and a litmus test for public trust in government statistics.
According to Statistics Canada, Canada’s economy shed 40,800 jobs in July 2025, marking a sharp reversal from the unexpectedly strong employment gains reported in June. The country’s jobless rate held steady at 6.9%, a multi-year high that has left many economists and policymakers uneasy about the months ahead. Andrew Kelvin, head of Canadian and global rates strategy at TD Securities, described the July data as “a one month correction from the overly optimistic data” of June, warning that “our economy is still somewhat dour. We don’t expect much growth in the second or third quarters.”
Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, echoed these sentiments, emphasizing that while the July numbers were “on the softer side,” they should be viewed in the context of the previous month’s surge. Interestingly, Porter noted that despite widespread concerns about the impact of tariffs on jobs, manufacturing employment had actually ticked up slightly, defying expectations. “Over the past year, we’ve seen job losses, but it’s not to the extent that I think one would have guessed,” he said, as reported by Reuters.
Andrew Grantham, a senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, pointed out that the weaker-than-expected July figures lend support to forecasts of a 25 basis point interest rate reduction by the Bank of Canada at its September meeting. “There’s still more than a month to go until the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision, and therefore a lot more data to be released between now and then, including another employment report, two inflation releases and quarterly GDP,” Grantham stated. “However, today’s weaker than expected employment figure is nevertheless supportive for our call of a 25 bp interest rate reduction at that September meeting.”
While Canada’s labor market was taking a hit, the United States was grappling with its own jobs report drama—one that quickly spiraled into a political firestorm. The July 2025 U.S. jobs report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), revealed that only 73,000 jobs were added during the month, far below Wall Street’s expectation of 180,000. More troubling for many was the government’s decision to revise downward the job gains for May and June by a combined 258,000 positions, signaling a more pronounced slowdown than previously thought. The U.S. unemployment rate saw a slight uptick to 4.1%, while wage growth remained steady at 3.7% year-over-year.
President Donald Trump, facing a tough re-election campaign in the fall, wasted no time in denouncing the jobs report as “rigged” and “a scam.” Within hours, Trump fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the BLS Commissioner appointed under President Biden, accusing her and the agency of political manipulation. Trump claimed the negative jobs report was a “deep state lie” engineered to damage his administration’s economic record, and he drew parallels between statistical adjustments and past election results. On his Truth Social platform, Trump alleged, “Head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics did the same thing just before the Presidential Election, when she lifted the numbers for jobs to an all time high. I then won the Election, anyway, and she readjusted the numbers downward, calling it a mistake, of almost one million jobs. A SCAM!” He concluded, “She did it again, with another massive ‘correction,’ and got FIRED! She had the biggest miscalculations in over 50 years.”
The spectacle only intensified when Trump, in a chaotic White House event broadcast live on Fox News, attempted to defend his claims by grabbing charts and gesturing to reporters. “This one chart really says it best. If you look at this, this is great,” he told journalists, offering little in the way of explanation. The performance quickly went viral, with critics likening it to a comedy sketch or a third grader’s class project. Public reaction ranged from disbelief to outright mockery, with one viewer quipping, “Like a little kid showing you their new toys.”
The president’s actions drew fierce criticism from economists and political observers. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, a longtime Trump critic, fired back in The Economic Times, writing, “Every accusation is a confession,” and warning that Trump’s “paranoid style of politics” undermines trust in core democratic institutions like the BLS. Krugman emphasized that data revisions are normal, especially during periods of economic volatility, and that Trump’s response highlights his discomfort with reality. “When leaders start dismissing facts as lies and firing neutral officials, democracy suffers,” he cautioned.
Independent experts rushed to clarify the situation. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, explained, “Downward revisions are common when the economy begins to slow down. Employers typically report data late or revise their numbers as trends shift.” Jamie Cox of Harris Financial Group added that the weak jobs data and revisions could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts to prevent the economy from tipping into recession. Most experts agreed that the changes reflected real-time corrections, not conspiracy, and pointed out that the cycle of job market revisions is a routine part of economic reporting—especially during slowdowns.
The controversy over the U.S. jobs report and the firing of the BLS chief has raised broader concerns about the politicization of economic data and the future integrity of federal institutions. As discussed on Slate’s Political Gabfest podcast, the episode marks a troubling precedent: “History shows the perils” when trusted data is cast as partisan, and the independence of federal agencies is compromised. Multiple news outlets, including The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, have published analyses warning that the credibility of economic statistics is at risk if political leaders are willing to dismiss or manipulate inconvenient facts.
Meanwhile, the underlying economic reality remains sobering. In both the U.S. and Canada, job growth has slowed sharply compared to earlier in 2025. Economists attribute the cooling labor markets to a combination of high interest rates (particularly in the U.S., as the Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive stance), slower consumer spending, and reduced business hiring amid political uncertainty. While wage growth in the U.S. has held steady, the overall picture suggests that the North American economy is entering a more cautious phase—with all eyes now on upcoming central bank decisions and the next round of employment data.
As the dust settles, the July 2025 jobs report saga underscores the high stakes of economic transparency and the dangers of politicizing official statistics. Whether the coming months bring recovery or further turbulence, the credibility of the numbers—and those who report them—will be under greater scrutiny than ever before.
