A single photograph snapped at the United Nations General Assembly last week has thrown a harsh spotlight on the Trump administration’s economic strategy, exposing deep-seated worries over the collapse of U.S. soybean exports to China. The image, captured by Associated Press photographer Angelina Katsanis, showed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reading a message from Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins that spelled out the crisis in stark terms: "We bailed out Argentina yesterday (Bessent) and in return, the Argentine’s are removing their export tariffs on grains, reducing their price, and sold a bunch of soybeans to China, at a time when we would normally be selling to China. Soy prices are dropping further because of it. This gives China more leverage on us."
The message, which quickly made the rounds on social media and in newsrooms from Washington to Buenos Aires, revealed the unintended consequences of a U.S. economic aid package to Argentina. In mid-September, the Trump administration extended a possible $20 billion swap line and direct debt purchases to help stabilize Argentina’s economy. In return, Argentina slashed export tariffs on grains, making its soybeans cheaper on the global market—just as American farmers were preparing to harvest their own crop.
The result? China, historically the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, swooped in and purchased over a million metric tons of Argentine soybeans, bypassing American suppliers entirely. According to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, China has not bought a single U.S. soybean shipment since May 2025, despite having purchased $12.5 billion worth in 2024—more than half of all U.S. soybean exports that year.
“This is a five-alarm fire for our industry,” Kentucky farmer and American Soybean Association president Caleb Ragland told the Associated Press. “We’ve had your back, President Trump. We need you to have ours now.” Ragland’s plea echoes across the Midwest, where fields of soybeans are ripening with nowhere to go. U.S. soybean exports have plummeted 23 percent compared to last year, and the consequences are rippling through rural America.
Farmers are facing mounting losses. Jennifer Fahy, co-executive director at Farm Aid, told Newsweek, “Farmers are suffering terrible losses. These are not economic blips, but potentially long-term or permanently lost markets due to ricocheting tariffs.” She added, “They are telling us they're losing $100 to 200 an acre this year.” Storage bins are filling up as both corn and soybeans accumulate with no clear buyers in sight.
The collapse in exports is not just a short-term headache. Soybeans represent 14 percent of all U.S. agricultural exports, making them the country’s top food export by value. The loss of the Chinese market, which has pivoted decisively toward South American suppliers, threatens the long-term viability of American farms built to serve China’s massive appetite. “We cannot replace a China in one shot,” said Iowa farmer Robb Ewoldt, a director with the United Soybean Board. “It’s not going to happen. We need to be realistic in that.”
China’s strategy is clear. According to Wang Wenshen, an analyst at Sublime China Information interviewed by Reuters, “China’s heavy Q3 soybean purchases suggest the industry has built up inventories ahead of potential Q4 supply risks.” Chinese companies have secured at least 12 million metric tons of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina for delivery through October, skipping U.S. suppliers during their primary marketing window.
Even with U.S. soybeans trading $40 per ton cheaper than Brazilian cargoes, Beijing’s 34 percent tariff makes American beans uncompetitive. The tariff, a legacy of the ongoing trade war, is at the heart of the crisis. “That’s why China is targeting soybeans and other agricultural products,” explained Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council. “They know farmers have a strong lobby.”
President Donald Trump, for his part, has acknowledged the pain. Last week, he floated the idea of using tariff revenue to bail out struggling farmers. “We’re going to take some of the tariff money—relatively small amount, but a lot for the farmers—and we’re going to help the farmers out a little bit,” Trump said. But the details remain murky. During his announcement, Trump appeared to confuse “millions” and “billions” when describing the potential aid, leaving farmers skeptical about whether any relief is actually coming.
The proposal has drawn sharp criticism from both sides of the political spectrum. On Sunday, former GOP analyst Tim Miller lambasted the plan on his "Bulwark Takes" podcast, calling it “the stupidest policy that I think I’ve ever seen.” Miller added, “These tariffs, which were supposed to bring about a golden age, are supposed to help rural America in particular, supposed to help the forgotten man. To have them within nine months be such a catastrophe that you have to do a taxpayer-funded bailout to help the people that you f----- over because your policy was so stupid. I mean, that is like a land speed record for policy disaster.”
Some Republicans, including Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa, have called on Trump to focus on renegotiating a trade deal with China instead of relying on bailouts. During Trump’s first administration, a $23 billion bailout was approved for farmers affected by the trade war, but many in the industry remain wary of more government handouts. “We don’t want aid payments,” Indiana farmer Brian Warpup told the AP. “We want to work. The worst thing that we could ever want is a handout.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, however, has acknowledged the gravity of the situation. “We’ve got a big harvest coming in... and no place to go with it,” he told NBC News. “They are anxious. They want to see markets open up.” Thune’s support for federal intervention drew surprise from Miller and other critics, who see the bailout as an admission of policy failure.
Meanwhile, efforts are underway to diversify export markets. Taiwan has pledged $10 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases over the next four years—a significant commitment, but still a fraction of what China once bought. Domestic uses for soybeans, such as biodiesel and animal feed, are helping to absorb some of the surplus, but not nearly enough to offset the loss of Chinese demand.
The crisis has exposed the fragility of global agricultural supply chains and the risks of using food exports as leverage in international diplomacy. For many American farmers, the stakes are existential. “Our priority remains seeing the United States secure lasting trade agreements—particularly with China—that allow farmers to sell their crops and build a sustainable future with long-term customers,” said Kentucky’s Ragland.
As combines roll through the fields of Magnolia, Kentucky, and across the heartland, the uncertainty lingers. Will Washington answer Rollins’ urgent call for action? Or will America’s soybeans continue to pile up, unsold, as South American shipments fill Chinese ports? For now, the nation’s farmers can only watch and wait, hoping that the next message from Washington brings more than just words.
