As the sun rises over the Caribbean, the waters are anything but calm. Warships dot the horizon, and the distant thud of military action has become a new reality for the region. The United States, under President Donald Trump’s second term, has sharply escalated its pressure on Latin America, with Venezuela and its embattled leader Nicolás Maduro at the epicenter of a rapidly intensifying crisis. The question on everyone’s mind: is the U.S. inching ever closer to direct military intervention against the Maduro regime?
According to The Floridian and other sources, the situation has grown increasingly volatile since early October 2025. The U.S. military has deployed approximately 10,000 troops, along with major warships and aircraft, across the southern Caribbean. This formidable presence has already resulted in at least seven Venezuelan vessels—allegedly involved in drug trafficking—being destroyed, leading to the deaths of at least 32 individuals as of late October. President Trump himself has admitted to authorizing covert CIA operations against Maduro, fueling speculation about the administration’s ultimate intentions.
The U.S. campaign is not limited to Venezuela. Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico, threatened to seize the Panama Canal, and levied punitive tariffs on Brazilian imports. Most recently, he escalated tensions with Colombia, slashing aid and increasing tariffs on exports from the U.S.’s closest regional ally. The president’s rhetoric has been equally fierce, labeling Colombian President Gustavo Petro an “illegal drug leader” after Petro accused the U.S. of “murder” in the Caribbean. “He better close up drug operations or the U.S. will close them up for him,” Trump warned, as reported by The Week.
These aggressive moves have not gone unnoticed. The Center for Strategic and International Studies observed that Trump has given Latin America “more attention in nine months than many past administrations of either party have since the Cold War”—though not in the way many had hoped. Analysts describe this approach as a “Monroe Doctrine 2.0,” where the U.S. abandons soft-power initiatives in favor of military muscle and economic coercion.
For Venezuelans, the stakes could not be higher. The country has endured years of economic collapse, political repression, and humanitarian disaster under Maduro’s rule. But recent events have sparked a glimmer of hope. Earlier this month, opposition leader María Corina Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, a symbolic victory that has energized those fighting for democracy. Meanwhile, a survey by DC Consultores found that a staggering 86% of Venezuelans support the U.S. military operations targeting drug trafficking in the region, as reported by The Christian Science Monitor.
Yet, optimism is tempered by caution. Rafael Uzcátegui, a Venezuelan human rights defender now exiled in Mexico City, described the moment as “the beginning of a new stage of transnational repression against critics of the government.” Ligia Bolívar of Alerta Venezuela echoed these concerns, warning, “We’re worried this is in the hands of foreign governments.” The fear is palpable, especially among the nearly three million Venezuelan exiles in Colombia, who have faced rising threats and violence—including a recent shooting in Bogotá targeting opposition supporters.
Jose Morales-Arilla, a professor at Tecnológico de Monterrey in Mexico, believes the U.S. campaign could “change the current equilibrium” and potentially lead to Maduro’s downfall. He notes that Trump’s willingness to use force, such as his previous decision to bomb Iran, sends a powerful signal to both allies and adversaries. But, as Morales-Arilla points out, “Venezuelans have tried every imaginable political strategy—from negotiation, to street protests, to massive participation in elections—despite having everything stacked against them.” For many, the use of force now seems like the only remaining option.
Still, the history of U.S. intervention in Latin America casts a long shadow. Critics argue that military assets in the Caribbean are “not much use” in truly fighting the drug trade, especially if their focus is on Venezuela, through which only a small fraction of cocaine traffics to the U.S., according to The Guardian. Elizabeth Dickinson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Foreign Policy, “If the U.S. were truly interested in countering drug trafficking, the last thing you would do is to alienate the one military in the region capable of fighting drug traffickers.”
There are also broader geopolitical concerns. Analysts suggest that Trump’s heavy-handed tactics—bullying left-leaning governments, slashing aid, and imposing tariffs—could ultimately backfire. Instead of isolating Maduro, these actions may strengthen his grip on power by allowing him to portray himself as a victim of foreign aggression. And as the U.S. pivots away from its traditional soft-power approach, China is poised to expand its influence across Latin America, potentially becoming the “big winner” in this new regional contest.
Meanwhile, the situation for Venezuelan opposition figures remains precarious. Attacks and intimidation have escalated, with reports of shootings in Colombia and the murder of defectors abroad. Gaby Andréina Arellano, president of a nonprofit aiding Venezuelan migrants, described a “full state of alert” following recent threats. Despite the fear, she insisted, “the foundation has not closed its doors.” Uzcátegui warned, “The day Venezuela stops being international news and human rights organizations look away, the Venezuelan authorities will feel even more free to commit abuses of power.”
Amid these tensions, domestic politics in the U.S. continue apace. President Trump recently received the Richard Nixon Foundation’s Architect of Peace Award, even as his administration’s actions in Latin America raise questions about the true nature of American power. In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis announced nearly $1 billion in auto insurance refunds for Progressive policyholders and signaled support for a bill allowing over-the-counter sales of Ivermectin, underscoring the state’s ongoing political ferment. Early voting for the Miami mayoral race began on October 25, with local and national issues increasingly intertwined.
As the world watches, Venezuelans cling to a hard-won hope. “The goal has been the same in the last 25 years,” one opposition campaigner said, “to achieve a legitimate, peaceful, and democratic transition in Venezuela.” The road ahead is uncertain, and the risks are great. But for now, the spotlight remains fixed on the Caribbean, where the next chapter in this high-stakes drama is being written—one warship, one policy decision, and one act of resistance at a time.
