President Donald Trump’s ongoing campaign to revive the U.S. coal industry is facing a formidable obstacle: a sharp drop in coal exports, largely triggered by the escalating trade war with China. While Trump’s administration has rolled back regulations and opened up federal lands for mining, these domestic efforts are being offset by a dramatic decline in international demand, most notably from China, according to new government reports and industry analysts cited by the Associated Press and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The numbers tell a sobering story. From January through September 2025, U.S. coal exports fell by 14% compared to the same period last year, with China’s abrupt halt to American coal imports accounting for the lion’s share of that decline. This downturn follows a series of tit-for-tat tariffs: China imposed an additional 15% tariff on U.S. coal in February, then hit with a steep 34% reciprocal tariff in April. The U.S. exports about one-fifth of the coal it produces, and while China typically accounts for only about one-tenth of that total, its withdrawal has had an outsized impact on the industry, as noted by coal analyst Andy Blumenfeld at McCloskey by OPIS.
“It’s hard to tell whether that’s just going to maintain the status quo or if that’s going to be an increase in exports of coal and soybeans to China,” said Seth Feaster, a coal analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, in comments reported Friday. His uncertainty echoes the broader mood among industry watchers following Trump’s recent meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the week of October 27 to November 1, 2025. While the talks suggested potential trade progress, it remains unclear whether any deal will include provisions favorable to the beleaguered U.S. coal sector.
Despite the export slump, domestic coal production is actually up about 6% so far this year. But this uptick, analysts say, has less to do with White House policies and more with higher natural gas prices, which have made coal a more attractive fuel for domestic power generation. “The result has been to keep our lights on, our economy strong, and America Energy Dominant,” Interior Department spokesperson Charlotte Taylor said in an emailed statement, emphasizing the administration’s efforts to reduce regulatory burdens and boost mining on federal lands.
Indeed, the Trump administration has taken several steps intended to shore up the coal industry. In September, it pledged $625 million to bolster coal power generation, including recommissioning or modernizing old coal plants to meet growing electricity demand from artificial intelligence and data centers. It has also reduced royalty rates for coal extracted from federal lands, aiming to make U.S. coal more competitive on the global market.
But these efforts have encountered their own setbacks. Recent federal coal lease sales in Montana, Wyoming, and Utah failed to attract acceptable bids, raising questions about the industry’s long-term prospects. The bulk of U.S. thermal coal—the type burned in power plants—comes from massive open-pit mines in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana. However, exporting this coal to Asia is hampered by high rail costs and political resistance to building new port facilities on the West Coast, further limiting market opportunities.
Most of the coal that did make its way to China last year traveled through the port of Baltimore, with smaller shipments leaving from Norfolk, Virginia, and the Gulf of Mexico. Almost three-quarters of U.S. coal exported to China was metallurgical coal, used in steelmaking and primarily mined in Appalachia. The rest was thermal coal, destined for power plants. According to Blumenfeld, a resumption of U.S. coal exports to China would most benefit the Appalachian region, where mining jobs are often a crucial economic lifeline. “There is optimism,” Blumenfeld wrote in an email. “But there is little documentation to back that up right now.”
The broader international market for U.S. coal remains diverse but challenging. The majority of American coal exports now go to India, the Netherlands, Japan, Brazil, and South Korea. Yet, the loss of the Chinese market—however relatively small in percentage terms—has sent ripples through the industry, demonstrating how even modest shifts in global demand can have significant domestic consequences.
Trump’s coal policies have been a central pillar of his broader message of energy dominance and economic revival, particularly in states where coal mining remains a cultural and political touchstone. The administration’s deregulatory push has included rolling back Obama-era environmental protections and opening more federal land to mining, moves welcomed by industry groups but criticized by environmental advocates and some local governments.
Yet, even with these supportive policies, the U.S. coal industry faces structural headwinds. The global transition toward cleaner energy sources, competition from cheaper natural gas, and the rise of renewables have all eroded coal’s share of the energy mix. The current export slump adds another layer of complexity. While the administration’s $625 million pledge to modernize coal plants aims to address new demand from data centers and AI-driven industries, it remains to be seen whether these investments will be enough to offset declining export revenues and shifting market dynamics.
Political resistance to expanding coal export infrastructure on the West Coast has also played a role in stifling growth. Environmental groups and some state governments have successfully blocked proposed port expansions, citing concerns about pollution and climate change. This has left the industry reliant on existing East Coast and Gulf ports, which are less ideally situated for serving Asian markets.
Looking forward, much hinges on the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. Trump’s recent meeting with Xi Jinping has sparked some hope among coal producers and exporters, but as Feaster and Blumenfeld both caution, there is little concrete evidence yet that coal will benefit from any new trade agreements. For now, the industry remains caught between supportive domestic policies and a turbulent international market.
As the U.S. coal sector navigates these turbulent waters, the stakes are high—not just for miners and exporters, but for the communities that depend on coal for jobs and economic stability. Whether the administration’s efforts will ultimately succeed in reversing the export downturn remains an open question, and one that will likely be answered in the months ahead as trade talks continue and global energy markets evolve.
For now, the U.S. coal industry finds itself at a crossroads, with policy optimism on one side and stubborn market realities on the other—a tension that underscores just how complex and unpredictable the global energy landscape has become.
