In a week marked by high-level diplomatic claims and denials, the question of whether India is scaling back its Russian oil imports has become a flashpoint in global energy politics. On October 15, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had personally assured him India would stop buying oil from Russia, describing it as a "big step." Trump’s comments, made during a White House lunch with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, were emphatic: "India will not be buying oil from Russia. And they’ve already de-escalated and they’ve, more or less, stopped. They’re pulling back. They bought about 38% of the oil and they won’t be doing it anymore."
Yet, as reported by Reuters and other outlets, Indian officials have offered a far more nuanced—and at times, contradictory—picture. According to sources in the Indian oil sector, refineries have received no government directive to cut Russian imports. Orders for November and December shipments have already been placed, and any reductions in imports would likely only show up in figures for December 2025 or January 2026. Analytics firm Kpler projects that Russian oil imports to India will actually rise by about 20% in October 2025, reaching approximately 1.9 million barrels per day. This uptick comes as Moscow increases exports after Ukrainian drone attacks on its own refineries.
Trump’s claims have not been limited to private conversations. He repeated his assertion on October 17, stating, "India will not be buying oil from Russia, they have already de-escalated and they have more or less stopped. They are pulling back." The U.S. administration has been vocal about its frustration with India’s continued purchases of Russian crude, arguing that these revenues help finance Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine. In response, Washington doubled tariffs on Indian goods to a hefty 50% earlier this year, with a 25% additional duty specifically targeting India’s Russian oil purchases.
The Indian government’s official response has been carefully worded. On October 16, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stated that New Delhi was "diversifying" its energy sourcing, without confirming or denying Trump’s claim. MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal emphasized, "Ensuring stable energy prices and secured supplies have been the twin goals of our energy policy. This includes broad-basing our energy sourcing and diversifying as appropriate to meet market conditions." He added that energy cooperation with the U.S. has expanded steadily over the past decade, and that discussions remain ongoing under the current administration.
However, Jaiswal also clarified during a media briefing that there had been no phone call between Modi and Trump on October 17, the day Trump claimed to have spoken with the Indian prime minister about Russian oil. "We would request you to look at that particular statement for the questions that you have on…whether there was a conversation or a telephone call between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump. I’m not aware of any conversation yesterday between the two leaders," Jaiswal told reporters. According to official readouts, the last conversation between the two leaders took place on October 9, when Modi congratulated Trump on the Gaza ceasefire agreement and discussed ongoing trade negotiations.
India’s position as the second largest buyer of Russian crude after China makes its decisions on energy imports globally significant. According to a September 2025 analysis by the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), India imported €3.6 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels that month, with crude oil accounting for roughly €2.5 billion. Shipping data from Kpler indicates that between June and September 2025, state-owned Indian refiners reduced Russian oil purchases by about 45%. However, private refiners such as Reliance Industries and Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy increased their intake, offsetting some of the decline from the public sector.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported that two Indian refineries had bought 4 million barrels of crude oil from Guyana’s Exxon Mobil for delivery in late 2025 and early 2026. This move could be interpreted as part of India’s broader strategy to diversify its energy sources, though it does not signal a wholesale shift away from Russian crude.
The political fallout from Trump’s remarks has been swift and sharp in India. Opposition leaders have accused Prime Minister Modi of letting the U.S. president speak on India’s behalf. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi charged Modi with allowing Trump "to decide and announce that India will not buy Russian oil" and failing to contradict him publicly. Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh went further, alleging that the prime minister had "outsourced key decisions to America." The Congress party, in a post on X, stated that Trump had "taken decisions for India in front of the Ukrainian president" and questioned why Modi had permitted this. The party called Trump’s remarks "an insult to the country."
Despite the heated rhetoric, the facts on the ground suggest a complex and evolving situation. While the U.S. continues to pressure India and other major buyers to cut off Russian energy, Indian officials and industry sources maintain that no immediate, government-mandated reduction has occurred. Instead, Indian refineries have continued to place orders for Russian oil, and any decrease in imports would not be visible until the end of the year at the earliest.
The issue is further complicated by the broader context of U.S.-India relations. The recent hike in tariffs by the U.S. has been described by India as "unfair, unjustified and unreasonable," especially since other countries, including China, continue to buy Russian energy without facing similar penalties. As the world watches, India’s balancing act between maintaining energy security and navigating global diplomatic pressures remains under intense scrutiny.
Amidst all this, Trump has also continued to tout his role as a global mediator. During the same White House event with Zelenskyy, he claimed to have resolved conflicts between India and Pakistan, stating, "The Prime Minister of Pakistan said I saved millions of lives by interceding... you look at Pakistan and India as an example that would have been a bad one for two nuclear nations." India, for its part, has consistently maintained that the May 2025 ceasefire with Pakistan was achieved through direct talks between the two militaries, not through U.S. mediation.
As October draws to a close, the world remains uncertain about the future trajectory of India’s Russian oil imports. For now, the numbers suggest business as usual, even as the rhetoric from Washington and New Delhi grows louder. Both countries appear to be playing a high-stakes game of diplomatic poker, with energy security, economic interests, and global alliances all on the table.
