On September 23, 2025, US President Donald Trump threw the international community a curveball with a social media post that sharply diverged from his previous rhetoric on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. After months of calling for Ukrainian concessions and doubting Kyiv’s ability to reclaim its territory, Trump announced that Ukraine was now “in a position to fight and win all of Ukraine back in its original form.” The statement, posted to his Truth Social platform and echoed in meetings at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, signaled a dramatic tonal shift—even if, on closer inspection, the underlying US policy remains largely unchanged.
Trump’s remarks were loaded with his trademark bravado and biting sarcasm. He mocked Russia’s faltering invasion, saying, “Russia has been fighting aimlessly for three and a half years a war that should have taken a real military power less than a week to win.” He went further, labeling Russia a “paper tiger,” a jab that seemed to sting in Moscow and prompted a flurry of defensive reactions from Russian officials and pro-war bloggers. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov even countered, “Russia is by no means a tiger. Russia is traditionally seen as a bear. There is no such thing as paper bears. Russia is a real bear.”
Despite the headline-grabbing rhetoric, Trump’s core message was clear: while he now believes Ukraine could reclaim its original borders, America’s direct involvement will not increase. Instead, Trump insisted it was up to Europe—and especially NATO—to step up support for Ukraine. “With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original Borders from where this War started, is very much an option. Why not?” he wrote. The US, he said, would continue to sell weapons to Ukraine through NATO partners but would not ramp up direct aid or sanctions.
This message was consistent in his meetings with world leaders. Sitting alongside French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump repeated his points, again dismissing Russia’s military prowess and emphasizing Europe’s role in the conflict. According to the Atlantic Council, Trump’s stance is set to remain largely unchanged: “Instead of pressing Ukraine to accept a Kremlin-friendly peace deal, Trump is now openly talking about Ukrainian victory.”
The reaction in Kyiv was a mix of surprise and cautious optimism. Zelenskyy, speaking to Fox News, called Trump’s statement “a bit of a surprise for me,” but added that he now saw “very positive signals … that Trump and America will be with us to the end of the war. We will see; but, God [willing], it will be so.” Trump himself, in a moment of rare praise, called Zelenskyy “a brave man, and he’s putting up one hell of a fight,” as shared on the White House’s X account.
Ukrainian officials, however, were quick to temper expectations. Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, suggested Trump’s shift was due to a realization that “Putin is clearly completely destroying his reputation.” Podolyak told DW, “Trump hoped that his previous acquaintance with Putin would enable him to find a solution for a major, fundamental, pan-European conflict, which would make the US look correspondingly powerful. But he’s realized that this is an illusion.” Podolyak emphasized that Trump’s new position primarily signals “readiness to sell far more weapons through NATO to European countries,” and stressed, “All of this needs to be on the battlefield.”
Yet, not everyone in Ukraine’s political establishment was convinced. Oleksiy Honcharenko of the opposition “European Solidarity” party warned on Telegram, “Trump is not talking about a Ukrainian victory. He’s washing his hands of this war. He’s saying, ‘Talk to the EU and figure it out. I hope you manage it. Good luck to you all!’” Fellow parliamentarian Volodymyr Aryev echoed this skepticism, arguing that unless the US and Europe move from words to “lots of weapons and heavy sanctions,” there is no real change in the situation. Danylo Hetmantsev, of the pro-presidential “Servant of the People” party, added, “Trump’s comment that the war won’t end for a long time is actually a bad scenario. It means that even Trump, who believed he could quickly end the war in Ukraine and get the Nobel Peace Prize, is no longer convinced of this outcome.”
Political scientist Dmytro Levus attributed the shift in Trump’s public stance to persistent diplomatic efforts by Ukraine and its European partners, as well as Russia’s own intransigence. “Even when concessions have been made, Moscow has continued to stick to its positions, adopted a superior attitude, and sought Kyiv’s capitulation. This may have disappointed Trump,” Levus told DW. Oleksandr Kraiev, a North America expert at the Ukrainian Prism thinktank, was more cynical, describing Trump’s statements as “parrot diplomacy”—repeating what he’s recently heard from European and Ukrainian delegations, and “saying what we want to hear.”
Meanwhile, the facts on the ground in Ukraine and Russia are painting a grim picture for the Kremlin. According to the Atlantic Council, Putin’s much-anticipated summer offensive failed to deliver, with Russian forces capturing less than one percent of Ukrainian territory over the past three years. Independent research, based on open-source data and intelligence reports, estimates that hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed, with even more wounded—figures that dwarf Russian losses in any conflict since World War II. In response to mounting casualties, Putin struck a deal with North Korea last year, deploying more than ten thousand North Korean soldiers to bolster Russian ranks.
Inside Russia, the war’s economic toll is becoming impossible to ignore. Since August 2025, Ukraine has launched dozens of airstrikes against Russian oil and gas facilities, causing a worsening fuel crisis. Long lines at gas stations and record price hikes have become common as Ukraine’s drone campaign curtails refining capacity and disrupts exports. The Russian military, stretched thin on the front lines and in major cities, simply lacks the resources to defend its sprawling energy infrastructure.
Russia’s international influence is also on the wane. The Kremlin was unable to intervene meaningfully in the 2023 Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, lost ground in the Syrian civil war, and offered little support to Iran during Israel’s recent air campaign. At sea, Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports has been broken, and its much-vaunted air force has failed to secure air superiority—even within Russian territory.
Trump’s “paper tiger” dig, though intended as an insult, may be closer to the mark than Moscow would like to admit. As the war drags on, Putin’s dream of restoring Russia’s superpower status looks increasingly out of reach. The Russian army remains bogged down, fighting for small villages near the original front lines, while Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russian territory only grows.
For now, Trump’s rhetorical pivot has stirred debate in world capitals and on the streets of Kyiv and Moscow alike. Whether it marks the beginning of a real shift in the conflict—or is just another chapter in the ongoing saga of “parrot diplomacy”—remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the war in Ukraine is far from over, and its outcome is as uncertain as ever.
