South Korea has spent months preparing for what it hoped would be a triumphant return to the international diplomatic stage, hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju on October 31 and November 1, 2025. But with the schedules of U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping now threatening to overshadow the event, Seoul’s ambitions for global leadership and renewed economic cooperation hang in the balance.
According to Korea JoongAng Daily, President Trump is reportedly considering a whirlwind one-night, two-day visit to South Korea starting October 29, just before the APEC summit’s main sessions. If this plan is finalized, Trump is expected to arrive via Gimhae International Airport on the morning of October 29, travel to Gyeongju, and hold a summit with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. The following day, he is likely to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping for a U.S.-China summit before departing South Korea—potentially before the official APEC meetings even begin.
This compressed schedule has raised eyebrows among diplomatic observers and local officials alike. Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, remarked, “This would be far from normal. When a U.S. president visits both South Korea and Japan, there’s usually an effort to balance the schedule. Spending three days in Japan with no pressing issues but skipping the main APEC events in South Korea could be seen as a diplomatic imbalance.”
The South Korean government, for its part, is still working to finalize the summit schedule, hoping to ensure that Gyeongju is remembered for more than just serving as the stage for a U.S.-China tête-à-tête. The stakes are high: this is South Korea’s first time hosting a major multilateral summit since a string of political upheavals, including martial law and the impeachment of a president. Seoul has framed this APEC as a symbolic return to the international stage, with the aim of leading global discussions on economic cooperation, artificial intelligence, supply chain resilience, and climate action.
But Trump’s likely absence from the main multilateral event could deal a blow to those ambitions. According to Korea JoongAng Daily, if Trump leaves and Xi stays for the main APEC sessions, the Chinese leader could end up as the de facto guest of honor, potentially using the opportunity to promote an anti-U.S. coalition. That would put President Lee Jae Myung in a diplomatically awkward position, caught between two superpowers with competing interests.
Observers say Trump’s approach is consistent with his preference for bilateral diplomacy over multilateral gatherings. Some analysts believe he sees this trip more as a chance to negotiate with China over ongoing trade disputes than as an opportunity to contribute to APEC’s founding goal of promoting free trade. There’s also speculation that Trump’s short stay is a pressure tactic in the stalled South Korea-U.S. tariff negotiations, a point that resonates with recent trade data.
South Korea’s economic position in the U.S. import market has taken a hit under the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies. According to the Korea International Trade Association’s analysis of U.S. Commerce Department statistics, South Korea ranked 10th among U.S. importers through July 2025, with $75.6 billion in goods exported to the U.S.—just 3.7% of total U.S. imports. That’s down from seventh place and a 4.0% share in 2024, marking the lowest ranking since 1988.
For context, South Korea had consistently ranked 6th or 7th for 15 years since 2009. The sharp decline is attributed to the negative impact of Trump’s full-scale tariff policy, which has hit South Korea harder than its competitors. Major exports—automobiles, steel, and machinery—have been directly and indirectly subject to high tariffs, while countries like Taiwan, whose flagship exports (semiconductors) are not yet directly affected, have climbed the rankings. Taiwan jumped from eighth place in 2024 to fifth in 2025, while Japan, with a similar trade structure to South Korea, also fell from fifth to eighth place.
The numbers tell a sobering story. In August 2025, South Korean exports to the U.S. fell by 32.1% for steel, 3.5% for automobiles, 14.4% for auto parts, and 12.7% for general machinery. Hyundai Motor and Kia, two of Korea’s automotive giants, are slowing down exports to the U.S., opting instead to increase local factory production in America and focus on electric vehicles to minimize the impact of the 25% tariffs. Some steel products are now subject to tariffs as high as 50%, further eroding Korea’s competitive edge.
“If you look at each U.S. export item, the impact of tariffs is still intact. On the steel side, there are items that are subject to 50% tariffs as much as the value-added steel in derivatives, so (exports) of machinery items are decreasing,” an official from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy explained at a recent briefing.
The diplomatic landscape is further complicated by regional developments. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, and Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev are all expected to attend a military parade in Pyongyang on October 10, marking the 80th anniversary of the founding of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party. Following a similar trilateral show of unity at Beijing’s Victory Day event last month, North Korea, China, and Russia are once again highlighting their alignment—adding yet another layer of complexity to the regional dynamic.
Meanwhile, speculation about a possible meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un at Panmunjom during the APEC period has all but fizzled out, with Trump’s shortened visit making such a scenario increasingly unlikely. South Korea’s hopes of using the Gyeongju APEC as a springboard for U.S.-China mediation or breakthroughs on the Korean Peninsula now face serious obstacles.
The Chinese side, for its part, has shown signs of shifting priorities. According to Korea JoongAng Daily, China canceled a reservation at The Shilla Seoul hotel, indicating that a long-anticipated state visit by Xi Jinping is now unlikely. Kang Jun-young, professor of Chinese political economy at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, explained, “A state visit by Xi would require significant outcomes from the South Korea-China summit. But there aren’t many issues the two countries can agree on right now. China must also consider North Korea’s position, and with the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party scheduled for October 20 to 23, Xi has pressing domestic political obligations.”
Diplomatic sources add that “a state visit should already be scheduled by now if it were happening. But state events don’t necessarily have to be in Seoul, and the U.S.-China summit schedule remains flexible, so we’ll need to monitor developments until the last minute.”
In the words of Kang Jun-young, “The South Korean government’s plan to use the Gyeongju APEC as a springboard for U.S.-China mediation or breakthroughs on the Korean Peninsula now faces serious obstacles. A carefully crafted response strategy is urgently needed.”
As construction crews put the finishing touches on the Hwabaek International Convention Center in Gyeongju, the world will be watching to see whether South Korea can salvage its moment in the diplomatic spotlight—or whether the ambitions of a host nation will be eclipsed by the maneuvers of global powers.
