On October 6, 2025, a roughly half-hour phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva marked a rare moment of diplomatic thaw between two leaders whose relationship has been anything but smooth. According to Valor Econômico and corroborated by U.S. media, this conversation was their first substantive exchange since a series of escalating disputes over tariffs and the prosecution of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.
President Trump, ever the showman, declared on Truth Social that he had a "very good" call with Lula. He added, "We will be having further discussions, and will get together in the not too distant future, both in Brazil and the United States. I enjoyed the call — our countries will do very well together!" The upbeat tone was a stark contrast to the months of tension that preceded it, with both sides digging in over trade, energy, and the fate of Bolsonaro—a close Trump ally whose political style mirrors Trump’s own.
Earlier in 2025, Trump’s administration imposed a sweeping 40% tariff on Brazilian exports to the United States, targeting key sectors such as petroleum, soybeans, sugar, coffee, and iron and steel products. As reported by Valor Econômico and U.S. outlets, these measures hit Brazil hard, with the country being the third-largest foreign supplier of meat to the U.S. The tariffs, coupled with targeted sanctions on several Brazilian government officials, were justified by the White House as a response to what Trump aides called "judicial persecution" of Bolsonaro.
Bolsonaro, who was convicted and sentenced in September 2025 to 27 years in prison for his role in a failed 2023 insurrection against Lula’s government, has become a lightning rod for right-wing populists worldwide. His prosecution drew sharp criticism from Trump, who in a June letter to Brazil’s government wrote, "the way that Brazil has treated… Bolsonaro, a highly respected leader throughout the world during his term, including by the United States, is an international disgrace." Trump didn’t stop there, adding, "This trial should not be taking place. It is a witch hunt that should end immediately." The U.S. president’s rhetoric echoed his own complaints of politically motivated charges following the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
Amid these headwinds, Trump appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the official interlocutor with Brazil. The move was met with a mix of trepidation and cautious optimism in Brasília. According to Matias Spektor, deputy director of the FGV School of International Relations, Rubio’s role comes with significant limitations: "Rubio does not have independence on major foreign policy issues. He practices diplomacy quite guided by what he deems desirable to the White House. The Brazil negotiation will be no different." Spektor explained to Valor Econômico that Rubio’s influence is tightly circumscribed by Trump, with little room for independent maneuvering—especially on high-stakes political matters.
Spektor further explained that Rubio, while once a presidential hopeful and a former rival of Trump in the Republican primary, was brought into government precisely so Trump could keep a close eye on him. "There is little interpersonal trust between Trump and Rubio. Rubio remains a potential successor to Trump, so the two are in a permanently tense relationship," Spektor noted. For Brazil, Rubio’s appointment signals that negotiations will be much more political than economic or commercial, with the White House firmly guiding the agenda.
With the prospect of the U.S. rolling back tariffs looking dim, attention has shifted to what Brazil might offer politically to break the impasse. As Spektor pointed out, the crux of the matter is that any deal must be seen as a win for both Trump and Lula, especially with the Brazilian presidential election looming in 2026. "One possibility is a Big Tech regulation proposal that is viewed as less stringent than that proposed by Brazil’s Supreme Court. A second possibility lies in Haiti. Last week, the U.N. Security Council approved a resolution creating an international force for Haiti. If Brazil now provided troops and took responsibility for that mission, it would be seen in Washington as a win for Trump—and potentially for Brazil, by demonstrating the country’s willingness to contribute to international law and humanitarian missions," Spektor explained.
Other potential concessions include adjustments to ethanol tariffs and increased government procurement by the Brazilian government. But as Spektor emphasized, "the key is that for change to occur, both sides must be able to claim victory. That is the key to success." He also noted that Brazil’s recent distancing from Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua—countries increasingly seen as authoritarian—has made dialogue with the Trump administration easier, removing a major sticking point from previous talks.
Despite the heavy focus on government-to-government negotiations, the private sector has not been idle. Since the imposition of tariffs, U.S. and Brazilian businesses have been actively seeking and often securing exceptions. "The U.S. private sector has been very effective at creating exceptions to those tariffs. Will that parallel diplomatic track continue? Yes: both the U.S. and Brazilian private sectors are actively pushing for such exceptions, and that won’t change," Spektor told Valor Econômico. This dual-track approach—where both governments and businesses are working to ease trade barriers—means there are more avenues than ever for progress, even if the path forward remains fraught with political landmines.
Adding another twist to the diplomatic drama, Trump and Lula shared what the U.S. president jokingly described as "excellent chemistry" during a brief encounter at the United Nations General Assembly in New York last month. "At least for 39 seconds, we had excellent chemistry," Trump quipped, suggesting that personal rapport might help bridge political divides.
While the road to a comprehensive agreement remains uncertain, the October 6 call has opened doors that had been firmly shut. As Spektor observed, "What is opening now is the possibility of a government-to-government understanding, which simply did not exist until a week ago. So this opening between Trump and Lula is very significant: it creates the possibility of a broader agreement that would include tariffs, but also other themes—from Big Tech regulation to Haiti and the U.N., even ethanol. These are signals that a high-level diplomatic understanding between Brazil and the U.S. may now be feasible—opening possibilities that, again, until a week ago simply did not exist."
With elections looming in Brazil and both leaders eager to score political points, the coming months will test whether this unexpected thaw can translate into real progress—or whether old grievances will once again freeze the relationship. For now, the lines of communication are open, and that in itself is no small feat in today’s polarized world.
