In a move that’s sent ripples through America’s agricultural heartland and the nation’s dinner tables alike, President Donald Trump has called for—and the U.S. Justice Department has launched—a sweeping antitrust investigation into the country’s largest meat-packing firms. The probe, announced the week of November 15, 2025, comes at a time when beef prices are soaring to record highs and consumers, ranchers, and industry insiders are all pointing fingers in different directions.
Trump’s announcement, made on November 7 via his favored social media platform Truth Social, accused the Department of Justice itself of “illicit collusion, price fixing and price manipulation,” but his main target was what he called “Majority Foreign Owned Meat Packers [sic], who artificially inflate prices, and jeopardise the security of our Nation’s food supply.” According to Reuters, Trump argued that American ranchers were being unfairly blamed for the actions of these multinational corporations.
Attorney General Pam Bondi confirmed that a formal probe was underway, led by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Assistant Attorney General Gail Slater. The investigation, as reported by the Associated Press, is set to examine whether the handful of companies that dominate the U.S. beef-processing market—JBS USA, Cargill, Tyson Foods, and National Beef Packing Company—are engaging in anti-competitive behavior. These so-called “Big Four” control more than 80% of U.S. cattle slaughter, a concentration that has long raised eyebrows among ranchers and antitrust advocates alike.
Interestingly, the new investigation follows hot on the heels of a years-long antitrust probe into the meatpacking industry that the Justice Department quietly closed during the COVID-19 pandemic. As Bloomberg reported, the closure happened just weeks before Trump’s renewed call for scrutiny, leaving the industry reeling from what feels like déjà vu. The new probe is poised to focus on the same firms that were recently told they were in the clear after five years under the microscope.
The Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association (TSCRA), a powerful voice for ranchers, wasted no time in applauding the move. On November 11, TSCRA President Carl Ray Polk Jr. released a statement: “Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association appreciates President Donald Trump, the U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) giving renewed attention to longstanding concerns of cattle ranchers by initiating an investigation into the nation’s largest meat‑packing firms. This action will result in more transparency in a highly concentrated sector of the beef supply chain.” According to the association, the beef supply chain’s lack of transparency has been a thorn in the side of independent ranchers for years.
Yet, not everyone is convinced the investigation will lead to lower prices at the supermarket. Industry experts, as cited by AP News, caution that while the probe might satisfy political pressure around rising food costs, its actual impact on consumer prices remains uncertain. Some economists warn that breaking up or heavily regulating the large packers could backfire, potentially leading to even higher prices or a reduced supply of beef on store shelves.
The underlying reasons for today’s sky-high beef prices are complex and, in many ways, beyond the reach of even the most aggressive antitrust action. Drought, soaring feed costs, and a shrinking U.S. cattle herd have all played a role in constraining supply. According to the USDA, domestic beef production is projected to decline by 2% in 2026, reflecting a years-long contraction of the cattle herd. The Meat Institute, which represents industry interests, noted that beef packers “have been losing money on every steer and cow slaughtered for more than a year” due to the historically low availability of live cattle, warning that “catastrophic losses” could continue well into next year.
Recent financial disclosures from the Big Four packers paint a grim picture. Tyson Foods, for example, reported an operating loss of $1.1 billion in its beef division for the just-ended fiscal year—nearly triple the previous year’s loss. The company’s operating margin in beef worsened from -1.9% to -5.2%. Tyson’s CEO Donnie King told Wall Street analysts, “Herd rebuilding, which we’re all looking for, means supply of market ready cattle will fall before it increases in future years.” In other words, the road to recovery will likely see things get worse before they get better.
JBS Beef North America, another industry giant, reported record sales in the third quarter of 2025, with net sales jumping 14.8% to $7.25 billion. Yet, despite the top-line growth, gross profit for the U.S. beef segment was halved compared to a year ago, falling from $341 million to $170 million. The culprit? The cost of sales surged 18.5% to $7.08 billion, driven by tight cattle supplies. JBS Foods USA CEO Wesley Batista Filho summed up the outlook: “We think 2026 will still be a challenging year from a supply perspective, and then probably from there it starts getting gradually better. It’s not gonna be overnight, you know, get completely better, but it’s gonna be a gradual improvement from ‘27 forward.”
National Beef’s parent company, Brazil-based MBRF, saw a 10.2% decline in third-quarter gross profit for its North American operations, with margins dropping from 4.5% to 3.6%. Sales volume fell 6.3% from the same period last year, though net revenue rose 12.2% to $3.64 billion as beef prices averaged nearly 20% higher per kilogram. The cost of goods sold jumped 13.2% amid higher raw material costs.
It’s not just market forces at play. Trump’s own economic policies have contributed to the current landscape. In August 2025, he imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, which, according to Reuters, slowed imports of beef that had been mixed with U.S. hamburger meat—tightening supplies even further. The combination of tariffs, drought, and herd contraction has put extraordinary pressure on both producers and consumers.
As for the investigation’s next steps, the DOJ is expected to begin issuing subpoenas and gathering documents and testimony to determine if major processors have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. The probe could evolve to target specific companies or pricing practices linked to feedlots, slaughter capacity, and supply contracting. There’s also speculation that it may dovetail with broader policy efforts to expand independent meat-processing capacity or tighten oversight of agricultural markets.
For now, the Big Four have remained silent on the Justice Department’s investigation. The Meat Institute points out that, despite record beef prices at the checkout counter, packers themselves are still struggling, with Sterling Marketing’s Beef Profit Tracker noting that packer margins improved sharply last week but remained in the red at -$44.53 per head—better than the previous week’s -$170.25, but still negative.
With food inflation continuing to shape the national debate, the political spotlight on the beef industry is unlikely to dim any time soon. Whether the DOJ’s probe will bring relief to consumers, ranchers, or both remains to be seen. But one thing’s certain: the battle over America’s beef supply is far from over, and its outcome will affect everything from rural livelihoods to family dinner tables for years to come.
