At precisely 1:30 PM on November 24, 2025, the coastal municipality of Bayabas in Surigao del Sur braced itself as Tropical Depression Verbena made landfall, marking the start of what forecasters warn could be a turbulent week for the Philippines. According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Verbena struck with maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near its center, gusting up to 55 km/h, and carried the potential for escalation as it advanced across the archipelago.
Earlier that day, at 11 AM, PAGASA had tracked Verbena’s center roughly 300-400 kilometers east-southeast of the Caraga Region, noting its maximum sustained winds at 55 km/h and gusts reaching up to 70-80 km/h. The system was moving west-northwestward at a brisk 15-20 km/h, affecting a swath about 200 kilometers in diameter with gale-force winds reaching up to 100 kilometers from the eye. The central pressure was recorded at approximately 1002 hPa, and satellite imagery revealed a storm system that, though still classified as a tropical depression, was rapidly organizing and intensifying.
By the time Verbena made landfall, its winds had slightly weakened, but the threat remained acute. The depression accelerated to 25 km/h, its broad circulation extending strong winds as far as 200 kilometers from its center, now located at 09.0°N, 126.3°E. This meant that the storm’s impact was not limited to its point of landfall but radiated outwards, threatening communities across the Visayas, parts of Luzon, and much of Mindanao.
With the storm’s arrival, PAGASA raised Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 across an extensive area. This signal, which warns of strong winds (39-61 km/h) within 36 hours, was hoisted over a long list of provinces: in Luzon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, northern Palawan (including Calamian, Cuyo, and Cagayancillo Islands), and mainland Masbate; in the Visayas, Antique, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Cebu, Bohol, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, and Southern Leyte; and in Mindanao, the Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, and northern Bukidnon.
Even areas outside the immediate wind signal zones were not spared. The surge of the Northeast Monsoon, intensified by Verbena’s approach, brought strong to gale-force gusty conditions to much of Luzon and Visayas, as well as parts of Mindanao. PAGASA’s advisories warned that even regions not under wind signals could experience hazardous conditions, especially in coastal and upland areas.
Sea travel was immediately deemed perilous. A Gale Warning was issued for the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon, with seas reaching up to 4.5 meters—conditions described by PAGASA as ‘risky for all types or tonnage of vessels.’ The seaboards of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and the western coast of Pangasinan were also forecast to see rough seas up to 4.0 meters. Small seacraft, including the ubiquitous motorbancas that ply inter-island routes, were strongly advised to remain in port or seek immediate shelter. Mariners were reminded that venturing out in such conditions could be life-threatening.
Rainfall was another major concern. Within 24 hours of landfall, Caraga, the eastern Visayas, and the Bicol Region were expected to receive 50-100 mm of rain, with cumulative totals in Caraga potentially reaching 200-300 mm over the next 72 hours. These amounts, according to PAGASA, posed moderate risks of flooding and landslides, particularly in low-lying and mountainous areas. The agency’s bulletin stated, “Residents in Caraga and eastern Visayas should secure properties, avoid flood-prone areas, and heed local DRRM office alerts.”
Authorities were not caught flat-footed. Local government units were advised to activate preemptive evacuations in high-risk barangays and prepare for potential upgrades to TCWS No. 2, should Verbena intensify as forecast. The public was urged to monitor official updates every three hours and avoid circulating unverified information that could spark panic.
The track and intensity outlook for Verbena remained dynamic. PAGASA’s forecast indicated that the depression would continue west-northwestward, making its closest approach to the Caraga Region and eastern Visayas before curving toward Palawan. The system was expected to intensify into a tropical storm within 36 hours of November 24, possibly peaking as a severe tropical storm with winds of up to 95 km/h by November 27. Forecasters noted, “favorable environmental conditions” such as low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures above 28°C, could fuel this intensification. However, once Verbena exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by November 27, cooler waters and increasing wind shear were likely to weaken it.
Despite these projections, PAGASA maintained a medium confidence level in its track forecast, with the uncertainty cone spanning 100-200 kilometers by the 72-hour mark. The agency cautioned that significant threats could arise if Verbena’s intensification exceeded current forecasts, especially in regions already vulnerable to flooding and landslides.
As the storm continued its journey across the Visayas and northern Palawan, residents in flood-prone and highly susceptible areas were repeatedly reminded to heed evacuation and safety instructions from local officials. The combined effect of Verbena and the Northeast Monsoon meant that heavy rainfall and severe winds could be experienced even in localities outside the immediate landfall point and narrow forecast confidence cone.
Looking ahead, Verbena was forecast to cross the Visayas as a tropical depression, but with a real possibility of reaching tropical storm status before hitting northern Palawan or once it entered the open waters of the West Philippine Sea. Should this occur, the storm could peak as a severe tropical storm while traversing the West Philippine Sea, posing a long-term threat to the country’s western sea lanes before finally exiting the PAR on November 27.
For now, the message from authorities is clear: stay vigilant, secure your homes, and prioritize safety over convenience. The next official update from PAGASA is scheduled for 5:00 PM, with further advisories expected every three hours as the situation evolves. In the Philippines, where the memory of past storms lingers and resilience is hard-earned, the arrival of Verbena is a test of preparedness and community spirit—one the nation faces together, eyes trained on the horizon and ears tuned to the latest weather bulletin.
