Nearly three million Americans now identify as transgender, according to a new report from the UCLA Williams Institute, but the future of data collection on this community is increasingly uncertain as federal and state policies shift. The report, published August 20, 2025, found that one in 30 Americans aged 13 to 17—about 3.3%—identify as transgender, while trans adults and youth together make up 1% of all Americans aged 13 and older. Particularly notable is that younger adults, those aged 18 to 34, account for more than half of the country’s transgender population. These numbers, built from years of expanding research, reflect a significant demographic shift and a growing openness among younger generations. Yet, researchers and advocates warn that the political climate may soon make it much harder to track, support, or even recognize transgender Americans.
For over a decade, the Williams Institute has published detailed reports on the nation’s transgender community, following trends in race, ethnicity, age, regional location, and mental health. Their latest findings draw on robust data sets, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) 2021-2023 Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System and the 2021 and 2023 Youth Risk Behavior Survey. According to the report’s authors, the Youth Risk Behavior Survey “currently provides the best available data for our estimates of the size and characteristics of youth who identify as transgender in the U.S.”
But the landscape for data collection is changing rapidly. In a major policy shift, the CDC will no longer gather information on transgender people, complying with an executive order from President Donald Trump that mandates federal recognition of only two biological sexes. Since Trump’s return to office in January 2025, information about trans people and LGBTQ+ health resources has been quietly removed or altered on federal websites. This move, coupled with the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) stepping back from supporting gender-affirming care, has many in the medical and LGBTQ+ communities alarmed. In May, HHS recommended “exploratory therapy” or psychotherapy for individuals with gender dysphoria, bucking the consensus of major medical associations—including the American Medical Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics—that have declared gender-affirming care as best practice.
These federal actions have been mirrored and sometimes amplified at the state level. Multiple states have sought to restrict access to gender-affirming care, especially for minors. In June, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a Tennessee ban on gender-affirming care for youth, a decision that effectively greenlights similar bans nationwide and deals a blow to efforts challenging these laws in court. The Williams Institute report’s authors expressed concern that, given these developments, survey respondents may become increasingly hesitant to disclose their gender identity. “It is also unclear whether individuals’ willingness to disclose on surveys that they identify as transgender will remain unchanged in the years to come,” they wrote, highlighting the chilling effect of the current political climate.
Amidst these policy battles, the real-world impact is being felt in schools, sports, and communities across the country. Nowhere is this more evident than in California, where AB Hernandez, a trans athlete and high school student, has become a focal point in the national debate. Just two months ago, Hernandez made headlines by winning two state high school championships in track and field and finishing second in a third event. On August 15, 2025, the controversy escalated when Riverside Poly, a high school volleyball team, forfeited a match against Jurupa Valley because Hernandez was on the opposing roster. The forfeit drew national attention and underscored the deep divisions around trans participation in sports.
This is not an isolated incident. Last year, a similar controversy erupted in college volleyball across the Mountain West Conference, and the issue has followed Hernandez and other trans girls in girls’ sports for over a year. In May 2025, when Hernandez qualified for the California state track and field championships, the U.S. Department of Education called for investigations into both the California Department of Education and the California Interscholastic Federation (CIF), the state’s governing body for high school sports, over their handling of trans athlete participation.
Yet, there has also been strong support for Hernandez at the local level. The Jurupa Valley City Council honored her in August 2025 for her achievements at the state meet—a recognition that stands in stark contrast to the actions of some school districts and critics. After the volleyball forfeit, Hernandez’s mother, Nereyda Hernandez, took to Instagram to defend her daughter and the importance of following California law and school policies. “When we follow California law and school policies, especially those that protect the rights of ALL students, we are more than just rule-followers,” she wrote. “We are respectful, inclusive, and principled citizens. Even when others choose to be a negative influence, we stand for fairness, dignity, and equality.”
The situation is further complicated by differing policies at the district level. In Kern County, a school district voted to ban transgender girls from girls’ sports, directly violating California state law and CIF policy. Vocal critics have called for Jurupa Valley to take similar action, but as of now, Hernandez is expected to continue playing, barring any legislative changes. The uncertainty extends beyond California; as schools across the country return to session in the weeks following August 21, 2025, regulations on trans girls’ participation in girls’ sports vary widely from state to state.
The legal landscape is poised for further upheaval. The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear arguments in October 2025 on cases involving trans student-athlete bans in West Virginia and Idaho. Both bans were previously overturned by lower federal courts, but the high court’s decision—expected next summer—could set a sweeping national precedent. For now, the only certainty is that the debate over trans rights in sports and beyond is far from settled.
For researchers, policymakers, and advocates, these rapid changes present a daunting challenge. The Williams Institute report concludes that younger people are far more likely to identify as transgender, a trend with broad implications for educational institutions, the military, workplaces, healthcare settings, and beyond. As the authors put it, “This has implications for institutions in our society, including educational institutions, the U.S. Armed Forces, civilian workplaces, health care settings, and other areas, regarding how to meet the needs of and provide opportunities for current youth and future generations.”
As the nation’s understanding of gender identity evolves and the legal and political battles continue, the lives of millions of Americans hang in the balance—caught between growing visibility and mounting uncertainty.
