In a development that has left researchers and commentators alike scratching their heads, the number of young Americans identifying as transgender, nonbinary, or queer has fallen sharply over the past two years, according to a series of recent surveys and reports. The data, meticulously compiled and analyzed by Eric Kaufmann, a professor of politics at the University of Buckingham and founder of the Centre for Heterodox Social Science, marks a dramatic reversal of trends that, until recently, appeared to be steadily rising.
The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE), which conducts one of the nation’s largest annual surveys of undergraduates, polled more than 60,000 students in 2025. Their findings, as reported by National Review and Unherd, show that just 3.6% of respondents identified as a gender other than male or female—a steep decline from 5.2% in 2024 and 6.8% in both 2022 and 2023. In other words, the share of students identifying as transgender or nonbinary has essentially halved in just two years.
This downward trend isn’t limited to broad national surveys. At Andover Phillips Academy, a prestigious private school in Massachusetts that annually surveys over three-quarters of its student body, the percentage of students identifying as neither male nor female dropped from 9.2% in 2023 to just 3% in 2025, according to data cited in the Daily Mail and National Review. Brown University, another elite institution, saw a similar drop: 5% of students identified as nonbinary, genderqueer, or questioning in both 2022 and 2023, but that figure fell to 2.6% in 2025.
"When the trans and queer trends were at their peak, freshmen were more likely to be nonconforming in their gender and sexuality than seniors. Now that BTQ (bisexual, trans, queer, or questioning) identification is in decline, the reverse is true: younger students are less BTQ than older students in their colleges," Kaufmann wrote for Unherd. He described the shift as a “surprising post-progressive development” that could challenge prevailing assumptions in both education and media about Generation Z’s relationship to gender and sexuality.
What’s behind this sudden and unexpected change? That’s the million-dollar question. Kaufmann’s analysis, as reported by outlets including the Daily Caller and National Review, points to a few possible explanations—but none that fully account for the rapidity and magnitude of the shift. One factor that appears to be correlated is a decline in mental health disorders, especially depression, among college students. According to survey data from The Economist, the percentage of American university students showing signs of depression fell from a staggering 44% in 2022 to 38% in 2024, marking the first positive trend in over 15 years. Kaufmann suggests that improved mental health may be partially linked to the decline in transgender and queer identification, but he also notes that the timing doesn’t line up perfectly: “The post-pandemic decline in mental illness did not immediately trigger a drop in sexual and gender nonconformity; that shift came a year or two later, suggesting other forces are also at work.”
Interestingly, the decline does not appear to be part of a broader political realignment among young people. As the Daily Caller points out, support for left-wing tactics, such as using protest or even violence to oppose speech with which students disagree, remains steady or even rising. Social media usage, often cited as a driver of earlier increases in gender nonconformity, has also remained stable, according to the Pew Research Center. Kaufmann notes, “Trans and queer identification have declined among young Americans even as levels of wokeness and irreligion have not.”
One theory gaining traction is that the surge in nonbinary and queer identification was, at least in part, a trend or fashion that is now receding. “This is a sign that fashions are changing,” Kaufmann observed. The sentiment has been echoed by groups like Moms for Liberty, who posted on social media, "It's no longer 'trendy' to be 'trans.'" The idea is that, much like bell bottoms in the 1970s, what was once seen as cool or edgy has become oversaturated and lost its cachet among young people.
Supporting this perspective, a landmark 15-year study from the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, published in the journal Archives of Sexual Behavior, found that while 11% of children expressed some degree of gender non-contentedness at age 11, only 4% reported such feelings by age 25. The researchers concluded, “The results of the current study might help adolescents to realize that it is normal to have some doubts about one’s identity and one’s gender identity during this age period and that this is also relatively common.”
Yet, the story is not entirely one of decline. According to a recent report from the Williams Institute at UCLA, over 2.8 million Americans identify as transgender, including about 724,000 youth—a number that, by some measures, is still rising, especially among 13 to 17-year-olds. The Williams Institute’s report factored in federal surveys and health agency data from all 50 states, providing a broader context for understanding the complexity of gender identity trends in the United States.
Meanwhile, the data from Brown University and Andover Phillips Academy do not include breakdowns for transgender students who identify as male or female, focusing instead on nonbinary, genderqueer, or questioning identities. This nuance is important, as the overall decline appears most pronounced in nonbinary and questioning categories, rather than among all transgender-identifying individuals.
The implications of these findings are far-reaching. For educators, policymakers, and activists, the sharp reversal challenges assumptions about the inevitability of rising LGBTQ+ identification among younger generations. It also complicates debates about school policy, mental health resources, and the role of social and cultural influences on identity formation.
For the young people themselves, the changing numbers may simply reflect a new reality: that gender and sexuality, like so many aspects of youth culture, are subject to shifting norms, influences, and—yes—fashions. As one psychology professor, Jean M. Twenge, wrote for TIME Magazine in 2023, “With 39 million 18 to 26-year-olds in the US, about two million young adults identified as trans or nonbinary—more than the population of Phoenix, the fifth-largest city in the country.” But as the latest surveys show, even numbers that once seemed monumental can change rapidly.
The coming years will reveal whether this is a lasting shift or merely another turn in the ongoing evolution of youth identity. For now, researchers and observers will be watching closely, trying to make sense of a trend that, for once, seems to have caught almost everyone by surprise.
