For decades, the United States has been a magnet for international tourists, from Canadian families seeking cross-border shopping sprees to European sightseers eager for a taste of Americana. But in the summer of 2025, a chill settled over the nation’s tourism industry—a chill that many say has little to do with the weather and everything to do with politics, policy, and perception.
In Buffalo, New York, a cheery billboard on the highway from Toronto to New York flashed a hopeful message: “Buffalo Loves Canada.” Alongside the sign, a $500 gift card giveaway was launched to entice Canadian visitors. “More than 1,000 people entered the giveaway,” Patrick Kaler, CEO of Visit Buffalo Niagara, told the Associated Press. But by the end of July, Buffalo’s usual summer influx of Canadian tourists was nowhere to be found. “To see the traffic drop off so significantly, especially because of rhetoric that can be changed, is so disheartening,” Kaler said.
This disappointment in Buffalo is just a snapshot of a broader downturn. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council, the U.S. is expected to be the only country among 184 studied to see a decline in foreign visitor spending in 2025—a projected $12.5 billion loss. “The world’s biggest travel and tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction,” Julia Simpson, the council’s president and CEO, said. “While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.”
Travel research firm Tourism Economics echoed the warning, predicting an 8.2% drop in international arrivals to the U.S. this year. While this is a slight improvement from earlier forecasts, it remains well below pre-pandemic numbers. The firm cited a “severe” sentiment shift among foreign travelers. “The sentiment drag has proven to be severe,” the company stated, noting that airline bookings suggest the slowdown will persist in the coming months.
So, what’s behind the slump? Industry analysts and local officials point to the return of President Donald Trump to the White House in January 2025. Trump’s renewed push for tariffs, his hardline immigration policies, and his public remarks about acquiring Canada and Greenland have, they argue, alienated would-be visitors. “Perception is reality,” said Deborah Friedland, managing director at Eisner Advisory Group, in comments to the Associated Press. The administration has revived travel bans targeting mainly African and Middle Eastern countries, tightened visa approvals, and ramped up immigration raids. And starting October 1, a new $250 “visa integrity fee” for travelers from countries not in the visa waiver program will push the total visa cost to $442—one of the world’s highest.
The numbers tell the story. U.S. government data shows that in the first seven months of 2025, there were more than 3 million fewer overseas visitors (excluding those from Mexico and Canada) compared to the same period last year—a 1.6% decrease. Western Europe saw a 2.3% drop in arrivals, with particularly sharp declines from Denmark (19%), Germany (10%), and France (6.6%). Asia was hit even harder, with double-digit decreases in arrivals from Hong Kong, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Fewer travelers also came from Africa.
No group’s absence has been felt more acutely than Canadians. Canada sent over 20.2 million visitors to the U.S. in 2024, more than any other country. But this year, those numbers have cratered. Statistics Canada reported that in July alone, Canadian car trips returning from the U.S. fell 37%, and air trips dropped 26% compared to the previous year. In a striking reversal, more U.S. residents drove into Canada in June and July than Canadians made the reverse trip—the first time in nearly two decades, except for two months during the pandemic.
The ripple effects have been felt far and wide. In Seattle, John Brink, who runs a food tour company, saw a 50% drop in Canadian customers during the annual Blue Jays–Mariners baseball series weekend. “Usually you kill it that weekend,” Brink told Newsweek, “but the foot traffic wasn’t there.” In New York City, the International Lindy Hop Championships were postponed after international dancers pulled out, citing discomfort with U.S. policies. “What we’re hearing is still the same—that (dancers) don’t want to come here,” co-producer Tena Morales said.
The nation’s capital has also noticed the impact. Local tourism officials in Washington, D.C., projected a 5.1% dip in international visitors for 2025. Destination DC, the city’s marketing organization, recently announced plans to counter negative rhetoric with a campaign highlighting residents and the “more personal side” of the city.
Some regions have managed to weather the storm. On Wisconsin’s Door Peninsula, a steady stream of loyal Midwest visitors helped deliver a strong summer for local businesses, according to Jon Jarosh, a spokesperson for Destination Door County. “Sidewalks were bustling and restaurants were packed by midsummer,” Jarosh said. And while international tourism lagged, major U.S. airlines reported that American passengers booking premium airfares helped fill international flights, with domestic demand picking up after a slow start to the year. The Federal Aviation Administration prepared for what was expected to be the busiest Labor Day weekend in 15 years, with bookings up about 2% compared to 2024.
Still, for destinations that have long relied on foreign visitors—especially Canadians—the absence is palpable. In Buffalo, Visit Buffalo Niagara shifted its marketing efforts to U.S. cities like Boston, Philadelphia, and Chicago. Amateur children’s sporting events helped fill some of the void left by Canadian tourists. “We will always welcome Canadians back when the time is right,” Kaler said. “I don’t want Canadians to feel like we see them as just dollar signs or a transaction at our cash registers. They mean more to us than that.”
The debate over the causes and solutions for the tourism decline is far from settled. Nevada Democrats, in a statement to Newsweek, argued that “Donald Trump’s erratic trade war is steering Nevada’s economy towards full-blown crisis, as tourism declines and inflation worsens.” Meanwhile, business leaders like Peter Follows, CEO of Carpedia International, emphasized the importance of adaptation: “From the perspective of an operator in the travel industry, the external causes of declining demand are less relevant than the question of how the business responds.” Ben Smith, chief executive of Air France-KLM, noted that many customers are “holding back in buying tickets for a little more clarity on ... the border, and things like that.”
As the U.S. heads into the fall, the question remains: Can the nation restore its reputation as a welcoming destination, or will the “closed” sign linger in the minds of travelers abroad? For now, cities like Buffalo are left to hope that the welcome mat will one day be noticed—and accepted—once again.
