As the 2026 election cycle heats up across the United States, new polling data reveals a landscape in flux, with close races and shifting public sentiment shaping contests from Ohio to New York City. The latest numbers, released October 20, 2025, by Bowling Green State University and Gotham Polling & Analytics, paint a picture of competitive races, deep political divides, and a public increasingly dissatisfied with the direction of the country and its democracy.
In Ohio, a state that has leaned reliably Republican in recent cycles, the upcoming Senate and governor’s races are unexpectedly tight. According to Bowling Green State University’s Democracy and Public Policy Research Network, Democrat Sherrod Brown holds a razor-thin lead over Republican Senator Jon Husted in the 2026 Senate contest. The poll, conducted from October 2 to 14 among 800 registered voters, shows Brown at 49% and Husted at 48%—well within the poll’s 4.5% margin of error.
This marks a notable shift from August, when Emerson College Polling found Husted with a six-point advantage. Brown, who lost his Senate seat in 2024 to Bernie Moreno, is now seeking a comeback in a special election. Husted, for his part, was appointed by Governor Mike DeWine to fill J.D. Vance’s seat after Vance became vice president. The closeness of the race, according to BGSU political science professor Robert Alexander, signals that “we are likely to see a great deal of attention in the coming year to see if a state that has become reliably red still has a shade of purple left in it.”
The governor’s race is equally competitive. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy currently leads Democrat Amy Acton by three points—50% to 47%. Ramaswamy, a tech entrepreneur and political newcomer, also holds a two-point edge over former congressman Tim Ryan in a hypothetical matchup, 49% to 47%. However, in a potential Democratic primary, Acton enjoys a commanding 50% to 41% lead over Ryan, who has yet to announce his candidacy.
Ohioans’ attitudes toward national politics are shifting as well. President Donald Trump’s favorability has dropped significantly, with the BGSU poll showing him at -10 as of October 2025, down from +6 in February and -1 in April. This decline comes amid an ongoing government shutdown, now entering its fourth week. When asked about responsibility for the stalemate, 46% of Ohioans blamed Trump “a great deal,” more than the 41% who blamed congressional Republicans or the 34% who pointed to congressional Democrats.
On specific policy issues, the poll found that 60% of Ohioans oppose Trump’s tariffs, and a whopping 69% are against changing the Department of Defense’s name to the Department of War. Regarding the deployment of the National Guard, 63% believe governors—not federal officials—should have the final say. Notably, nearly three-quarters of respondents think tariffs primarily benefit the wealthy.
Public confidence in the country’s trajectory and democratic institutions is waning. Fifty-three percent of Ohioans now believe the U.S. is on the wrong track, up from 50% in April, while satisfaction with the state of democracy has fallen to just 24%, a six-point drop since spring. Only a third of those polled feel that federal checks and balances are effective, a decline of nine points from earlier in the year.
Concerns about civil liberties are widespread, with 64% of Ohioans saying freedom of speech is under threat. This anxiety is felt more acutely among Democrats (89%) than Republicans (44%), highlighting the partisan divide over issues of expression and rights. Economic opinions, however, have improved slightly, with 25% reporting their personal finances have gotten better since April—up from 16%—and fewer people (56%, down from 61%) believing the national economy has worsened.
Immigration enforcement is another flashpoint. A slim majority of Ohioans—51%—oppose Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids, 52% are against ICE’s use of unmarked cars, and 54% disapprove of officers wearing masks while working. The partisan split here is stark: 95% of Democrats oppose ICE raids, while 92% of Republicans support them.
The poll also delved into public perceptions of the Jeffrey Epstein case, revealing deep distrust of institutions. Over 80% of Ohioans are familiar with the case, and 85% believe it’s important to hold others accountable. Nearly 90% suspect a cover-up exists to protect powerful individuals, with widespread disapproval of both Congress’s and Trump’s handling of the investigation.
Political violence is another source of near-universal concern. Ninety-two percent of Ohioans see it as a problem, and 86% say violence is never justified to achieve political goals. The recent death of conservative activist Charlie Kirk is viewed by 84% as reflecting a larger national issue. When it comes to public discourse, 58% believe it is never acceptable to express happiness when a public figure they disagree with is hurt, and most are hesitant to support firing employees for personal social media comments.
Meanwhile, in New York City, the mayoral race is drawing national attention—and presidential commentary. According to a Gotham Polling & Analytics and AARP survey released October 20, 2025, Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani leads with 43.2% support. Independent and former governor Andrew Cuomo trails at 28.9%, while Republican Curtis Sliwa garners 19.4%. The remaining 8.4% are undecided or back other candidates.
The dynamics of the race could change dramatically if Sliwa were to exit. The poll suggests that, in such a scenario, Mamdani’s lead would shrink to just four points over Cuomo—44.6% to 40.7%. Despite pressure from Cuomo’s supporters and Mamdani’s critics, as well as reported offers of money, Sliwa has steadfastly refused to drop out. “He has made it clear on multiple occasions that he has no intentions of doing so,” reports NewsNation, quoting Sliwa’s public statements and interviews.
The stakes are high, with the general election set for Tuesday, November 4, 2025. President Trump has weighed in forcefully, calling Mamdani’s potential victory a “disaster” for the city. “If you have a communist mayor, I think it’s going to be very tough for him and for the city,” Trump told reporters. Last week, he even threatened to withhold federal funding and deploy troops to New York if Mamdani is elected.
Mamdani, for his part, has pushed back. Addressing Trump’s threats on October 14, he told reporters, “President Trump has called me many things. We will continue to receive funding from the federal government, and it’s not because of President Trump’s generosity. It’s because it is the law. And just because he utters something does not make it the law.”
As the election season approaches its final stretch, both Ohio and New York City find themselves at the center of a national conversation about the future of American democracy, the role of political leaders, and the deep divisions—ideological, partisan, and personal—that continue to shape public life. The next few weeks promise more twists, more debate, and, if the polls are any indication, some very close outcomes.
