Thanksgiving has always been synonymous with travel in the United States, a time when millions take to the skies, roads, rails, and even cruise ships to reunite with loved ones. But this year, the landscape of holiday travel is shifting in unexpected ways, shaped by a recent government shutdown, economic jitters, and a changing mix of how Americans get from point A to point B. Data released just days before the holiday paints a complex picture: air travel bookings are down, yet the overall number of travelers is on the rise, thanks to a surge in road trips and alternative modes of transportation.
According to Cirium, an aviation analytics firm, bookings for Thanksgiving week flights in the U.S. as of November 14, 2025, were down 3.3% compared to the same period last year. The data, reflecting nearly half a million bookings collected two days after a 43-day government shutdown ended, marks a sharp reversal from the 2% year-over-year increase seen at the end of October. The shutdown’s impact didn’t stop at Thanksgiving—bookings for Christmas travel are also lagging, down 0.4% from last year. Cirium notes that its data, sourced from online travel agencies rather than airlines directly, signals a clear trend: the appetite for air travel has cooled as the holiday season approaches.
Why the sudden chill in the skies? The government shutdown’s ripple effects were immediate and severe. Over the week prior to November 18, airlines canceled more than 11,000 flights after the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ordered carriers to pare back schedules to maintain safety. Fatigued air traffic controllers, many working without pay, contributed to the disruptions. Delta Air Lines alone reported over 2,000 cancellations, a blow that will have a significant impact on its earnings. "We had a little over 2,000 cancellations. You can’t make that up within the quarter. So, yes, there was an impact," Delta’s CEO Ed Bastian said on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. Industry analysts estimate that these shutdown-related disruptions will slash about $400 million from airlines’ operating income.
The brunt of the cancellations fell on regional airlines. Michael Linenberg, an analyst with Deutsche Bank, reported that regional carrier SkyWest—which partners with United, Delta, American Airlines Group, and Alaska Air Group—saw about 11% of its flights canceled, compared to an industry average of 6.5% in the past week. Major carriers like United Airlines Holdings and Delta responded by preserving essential hub-to-hub connections while cutting back on regional service, a strategy reminiscent of their response to snowstorms and other major disruptions.
Yet, in the face of these aviation woes, Americans are hardly staying home. The American Automobile Association (AAA) projects that approximately 81.8 million Americans will travel over the Thanksgiving holiday period in 2025, an increase of 1.6 million from last year. Thanksgiving remains the busiest travel holiday, outpacing Memorial Day and the Fourth of July. The vast majority—nearly 90%—will hit the road, with AAA expecting 73 million people to drive to their destinations. That’s 1.3 million more drivers than last year, a trend that could accelerate further if more travelers decide to avoid the airport chaos.
Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel, emphasized the enduring appeal of Thanksgiving journeys. She noted, "The willingness of travelers to navigate crowded conditions and adjust plans underscores the holiday’s significance." Indeed, the drive to gather with family and create lasting memories seems undiminished, even as travelers adapt to new realities.
The economics of road travel are also favorable this year. Domestic car rental rates for Thanksgiving 2025 are 15% cheaper than last year, and the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline sits at $3.06, virtually unchanged from the previous year. Hertz, AAA’s car rental partner, expects the busiest pick-up day to be Wednesday, with hotspots like Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Newark leading the pack. AAA advises drivers to prepare their vehicles—last year, the organization responded to nearly 600,000 roadside assistance calls for issues ranging from dead batteries to flat tires.
But travel isn’t just about cars and planes. Nearly 2.5 million people are expected to travel by bus, train, or cruise during Thanksgiving 2025, marking an 8.5% increase from last year. The cruise industry, in particular, is seeing a post-pandemic resurgence, with AAA projecting 20.7 million American cruise passengers for the year. Thanksgiving cruises to the Caribbean are especially popular, offering a warm-weather escape and all-inclusive packages that appeal to families looking for a different kind of holiday gathering.
Despite the turbulence in air travel, about 6 million Americans are still expected to fly domestically over Thanksgiving—a 2% increase from 2024, though this figure could drop if more travelers pivot to other options. The average cost of a round-trip domestic flight is $700, on par with last year. For those willing to fly on Thanksgiving Day itself, fares are cheaper, but the cost of returning home—especially on peak days like Sunday and Monday—can quickly erase those savings. Some travelers are choosing to extend or shorten their trips to dodge the busiest travel windows.
Where are all these travelers headed? According to AAA booking data, Florida is the top domestic destination, thanks to its theme parks and cruise ports. Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami are especially popular. Internationally, Americans are flocking to Paris, Cancun, and Sydney, drawn by the promise of warm spring weather and vibrant city life.
For those sticking to the roads, congestion is a given. INRIX, a transportation data provider, warns that Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons before Thanksgiving will see the heaviest traffic, with returning travelers facing gridlock on Sunday. The advice? Travel in the morning if you can, and always be mindful of emergency responders and stopped vehicles.
Even as demand for U.S. air travel from Latin American countries has softened, some airlines are taking the long view. LATAM Airlines Group, for instance, remains unfazed by the recent dip in U.S. travel demand, continuing to invest in international and premium growth despite the headwinds.
In the end, the story of Thanksgiving travel in 2025 is one of adaptation and resilience. Whether by car, plane, train, or cruise ship, Americans are finding ways to come together, undeterred by disruptions in the skies or uncertainties on the ground. The journey may look a little different this year, but the destination—reunion with loved ones—remains as important as ever.
