On October 14, 2025, a flurry of trade policy shifts and market anxieties swept across Southeast Asia, as Thailand and Vietnam—two of the world’s leading rice exporters—found themselves navigating both new opportunities and mounting pressures in the global agricultural marketplace. The developments, officially announced in government briefings and industry reports, underscored the delicate balance between national economic strategies and the unpredictable tides of international demand.
In Bangkok, the Thai government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, made headlines by announcing a significant reduction in import tariffs as part of ongoing negotiations for Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the United States and the European Union. According to the Royal Gazette No. 3/2568 published on October 14, 2025, the new tariff ceiling was set at 19%, a move designed to invigorate the nation’s export sector, fortify its agricultural and industrial competitiveness, and support Thai laborers in a challenging global economy.
Prime Minister Anutin’s directive was clear: accelerate the FTA negotiations and ensure that the new tariff rate—no higher than 19%—would apply across sectors, including exports, agriculture, and industry. To that end, a high-level strategic trade task force was established, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas and including ministers from six key ministries, with the explicit mandate to integrate and expedite the negotiation process. “The government must instill confidence in the people, showing them that whenever hardship arises, the state will always stand by their side,” Anutin emphasized at the Cabinet meeting, as reported by Thairath.
The ramifications of this policy shift are expected to ripple through Thailand’s export-dependent economy. By lowering trade barriers, the government hopes to stimulate trade with major partners, especially as global demand for agricultural commodities remains uncertain. The urgency of the move was heightened by recent four-party discussions involving Malaysia, the United States, Thailand, and Cambodia, where regional economic cooperation and security were hot topics. According to Anutin, these talks yielded promising outcomes, with Thailand’s proposals receiving favorable responses and further economic collaboration on the horizon.
Meanwhile, just across the Mekong, Vietnam’s rice industry was grappling with a different set of challenges. The Vietnamese Food Association (VFA) released its latest export figures on October 14, 2025, revealing that in September alone, the country shipped 466,800 tons of rice valued at $232.38 million. While those numbers might seem robust at first glance, they actually represented a sharp 46.2% drop in volume and a 46.8% drop in value compared to the previous month—a jarring reversal for an industry accustomed to steady growth.
Over the first nine months of 2025, Vietnam’s rice exports totaled more than 6.82 million tons, earning $3.49 billion. Yet, even these cumulative figures reflected a 2% decrease in volume and a staggering 20% decline in value compared to the same period in 2024. The culprit? A sudden and sweeping import suspension by the Philippines, Vietnam’s largest rice export market.
As reported by Dan Tri, the Philippines imposed a 60-day ban on rice imports starting September 1, citing the need to stabilize domestic prices and protect local farmers. The impact was immediate and severe: Vietnamese rice shipments to the Philippines plummeted by 93.3% in volume and 92.6% in value compared to August. Over nine months, the Philippines imported 2.94 million tons of Vietnamese rice worth $1.45 billion, down 8.7% in volume and 26.9% in value year-on-year.
Complicating matters further, Philippine policymakers debated extending the import ban through November and raising import tariffs. While the Senate ultimately rejected a tariff hike, it did propose setting minimum purchase prices for farmers and minimum retail prices for rice—measures that, if enacted, could further disrupt Vietnam’s export pricing and the livelihoods of its farmers. “If the production cost for farmers is about 4,500 dong per kilogram and they sell at 5,000 dong, they make a profit. But if they have to sell at 4,000 dong, there’s no incentive to keep planting, and export volumes will drop significantly,” a rice exporter from Can Tho told Dan Tri.
The uncertainty didn’t end there. Vietnamese exporters expressed concern that the Philippines, having rapidly increased imports in previous years, might soon face a surplus. In that case, domestic prices could fall, discouraging farmers from planting and potentially leading to shortages and price spikes down the line. “Businesses need to look at the bigger picture. If export prices drop below production costs, they should hold onto their stock rather than sell at a loss. The world is full of uncertainties—wars, natural disasters. Just a few storms damaging crops in major consumer countries could send import demand soaring again,” another Can Tho exporter advised.
Throughout this turbulence, the Vietnamese Food Association called for calm and strategic thinking. VFA President Do Ha Nam, fresh from meetings with the Philippine Ministry of Agriculture, reassured the industry that “currently, the Philippines has only suspended imports temporarily until the end of November 2025. Rumors about extended bans or a 35% import tariff are not accurate.” He added, “Export businesses must remain calm and avoid being swayed by rumors.” The VFA also stressed that no official documents had been issued by the Philippine government regarding a long-term import halt, promising to keep member businesses promptly informed of any changes.
Despite the gloom in the Asian rice market, Vietnam was eyeing new horizons. The VFA announced that the Ministry of Industry and Trade had authorized negotiations for a government-to-government (G2G) rice export contract with Senegal, expected to take effect in November. This deal, if finalized, could open doors to the African market, a region seen as having high growth potential for Vietnamese rice.
Industry experts and trade officials alike urged exporters to pursue long-term strategies: diversify markets, maintain price stability, and resist panic selling. These, they argued, are the keys to preserving the resilience and sustainability of Vietnam’s rice sector. The message was clear—while the global rice trade may be in a temporary slump, careful management and adaptability could help weather the storm.
Back in Thailand, the government’s focus wasn’t limited to trade deals. Prime Minister Anutin also directed disaster management agencies to monitor and support communities along the Thai-Cambodian border, where overlapping jurisdictional issues have heightened local vulnerabilities. He thanked cabinet members for their ongoing efforts to assist affected citizens, reiterating the state’s commitment to being a reliable safety net.
In this season of uncertainty, both Thailand and Vietnam are betting on proactive leadership, international cooperation, and a steady hand to guide their agricultural economies through choppy waters. As global demand ebbs and flows, the resilience of Southeast Asia’s rice industry—and the millions of farmers and workers it supports—will depend on how well these strategies play out in the months ahead.
For now, exporters, officials, and farmers alike are watching the horizon, hoping for calmer seas and more predictable markets, but bracing for whatever twists the global trade winds might bring.
