Thailand is once again in the throes of political upheaval, as Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul dissolved the House of Representatives on December 12, 2025, setting the stage for early elections amidst escalating border violence and economic uncertainty. The move, which followed a formal request to King Maha Vajiralongkorn and subsequent royal endorsement, was published in the Royal Gazette on Friday, making it official: elections must be held within 45 to 60 days.
"I am returning power to the people," Anutin declared in a Facebook post late Thursday, echoing the sentiment in his formal statements and signaling a dramatic turn in Thailand’s tempestuous political landscape. According to Reuters, the dissolution was prompted by a deadlock with the opposition People’s Party—the largest bloc in parliament—whose demands for constitutional reform and other concessions were not met. Government spokesman Siripong Angkasakulkiat told Reuters, "This happened because we can’t go forward in parliament," describing a legislative impasse that left the government’s agenda paralyzed.
The timing of the dissolution could hardly be more fraught. For nearly a week, Thailand has been locked in fierce clashes with Cambodia along their disputed border, with at least 20 people killed and hundreds of thousands displaced, according to reports from BBC and AFP. Artillery exchanges and air strikes have rocked more than a dozen locations, leaving both nations reeling from casualties and the humanitarian crisis of mass displacement. Anutin, however, was quick to reassure the public that the dissolution would not disrupt military operations. "Military deployments along the border will continue uninterrupted," he told reporters, later repeating his stance on social media.
The roots of Thailand’s current turmoil run deep. Anutin, a business tycoon and leader of the conservative Bhumjaithai Party, is the nation’s third prime minister since August 2023. His predecessors, Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Srettha Thavisin, were both ousted by the courts for ethics violations. Paetongtarn, the daughter of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, was suspended after a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen and criticism of the Thai army, while Srettha was dismissed for appointing a former lawyer with a criminal record to his cabinet.
Anutin’s own rise to power in September 2025 was made possible by a fragile agreement with the opposition People’s Party. The deal: support for his premiership in exchange for a promise to dissolve parliament within four months and hold a referendum on constitutional reform. The People’s Party, which runs on a progressive platform, has long advocated for changes to the military-drafted constitution to make Thailand’s government more democratic. But as Al Jazeera reports, the coalition fractured when those demands were not met. The opposition prepared a no-confidence vote after Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party voted in favor of constitutional amendments that the People’s Party claimed violated the spirit of their agreement.
Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the People’s Party leader, was blunt in his assessment: "We have tried to use the voice of the opposition to push forward [with] amending the constitution," he said, accusing Bhumjaithai of failing to honor their terms. The party’s statement on Facebook was unequivocal: "See you at the polling stations."
The dissolution comes as Thailand’s economy continues to falter under the weight of political instability, high household debt, sluggish consumption, and mounting pressure from United States tariffs. The country’s GDP grew by a meager 1.2% in the third quarter of 2025, according to Oxford Economics, while the SET Index lost roughly 10% over the year. Despite these headwinds, the baht has managed to strengthen by over 7% against the US dollar, a small silver lining in an otherwise bleak economic outlook.
Bilateral trade with Cambodia, once Thailand’s 11th-largest export market, has collapsed as border crossings remain shut due to the fighting. The Ministry of Commerce reported a staggering 67% drop in exports to Cambodia in October compared to the previous year. Senior Asia economist Gareth Leather of Capital Economics noted that while a third of those exports are petroleum—"which could easily find an alternative market"—the real risk lies in the potential for the US to reintroduce higher tariffs if the ceasefire continues to unravel.
The border conflict has also threatened Thailand’s labor force. Alexandra Hermann, lead economist at Oxford Economics, warned that a prolonged conflict could see the loss of between 500,000 and 1.5 million Cambodian migrant workers from Thailand’s workforce of around 40 million. That, combined with the risk of higher US tariffs and the loss of the Cambodian export market, could further depress Thailand’s already sluggish growth, with Hermann revising the 2026 GDP growth forecast downward to 1.6%.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has re-entered the diplomatic fray, planning to speak with the leaders of both Thailand and Cambodia in an attempt to salvage the fragile ceasefire he brokered in July 2025. That truce, which was reached only after Trump threatened to halt trade talks and revoke privileges, collapsed in the face of renewed violence this past week. Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow told his US counterpart Marco Rubio that Thailand remains committed to a peaceful resolution, but, as he put it to Reuters, "sustainable peace must be backed up by actions."
As the country braces for yet another election, Anutin’s aggressive military posture and nationalist rhetoric appear calculated to shore up support for his Bhumjaithai Party. He has pledged to continue fighting until Thailand’s sovereignty and safety are assured, a stance that may appeal to voters weary of instability but wary of further escalation. Yet, with the People’s Party holding the largest number of seats in the House of Representatives and running on a platform of progressive reform, the coming election is likely to be fiercely contested.
For now, Anutin remains caretaker prime minister, with limited powers and no authority to approve a new budget. The next 45 to 60 days will be critical, not only for Thailand’s political future but also for its economy, its relations with Cambodia, and the wellbeing of hundreds of thousands caught in the crossfire. The outcome could shape the region’s trajectory for years to come.
In a country where "returning power to the people" has become a familiar refrain, only time will tell whether this latest dissolution brings about the change so many have demanded—or simply ushers in another chapter of uncertainty.
