With less than six months to go before the 2026 Texas primary, the race for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn is already heating up—though, in a twist, some of the most favored candidates haven’t even officially entered the contest. According to a pair of polls conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research between August 27 and August 29, 2025, Texas voters are displaying a remarkable degree of indecision, and the state’s political landscape is as unsettled as ever.
Among Texas Republicans, the incumbent Senator Cornyn holds a single-digit lead over his most prominent challenger, Attorney General Ken Paxton. The poll, which surveyed 843 registered voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points, found that 35% of registered Republican voters would back Cornyn in the primary, compared to 26% for Paxton. But perhaps more telling is the 29% of GOP voters who remain undecided—a figure that underscores just how fluid this race remains (as reported by Fox News and the El Paso Times).
On the Democratic side, the story is even more intriguing. The two top choices among Democratic respondents—former Congressman and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke and U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett—have not officially declared their candidacies. Yet, in a hypothetical Senate primary, 27% of Democratic voters said they would support O’Rourke, while 26% favored Crockett. The only officially announced Democratic candidates, former U.S. Representative Colin Allred and state Representative James Talarico, trailed far behind with 13% and 7% support, respectively.
According to the El Paso Times, "most Texas voters remain undecided or support candidates who have not even entered the race yet," highlighting the unusual dynamics at play. With O’Rourke and Crockett polling so strongly despite their lack of official campaigns, it’s clear that name recognition and political legacy are powerful forces in Texas politics. O’Rourke, in particular, has maintained a high profile since his high-profile runs for Senate in 2018 and for governor in 2022, even though he was unsuccessful in both efforts.
For Republicans, Cornyn’s lead over Paxton is notable for being the first poll to show a multiple percentage point gap between the two. The El Paso Times notes, "The poll marks the first to show Cornyn with a multiple percentage point lead over Paxton." Still, with 29% of Republican voters undecided, the contest is far from settled. Paxton, who has built a loyal following among the party’s conservative base, remains a formidable opponent. The incumbent Cornyn, meanwhile, has the advantage of experience and national profile, but faces skepticism from some of the party’s more populist-leaning voters.
On the Democratic side, the picture is even murkier. The poll shows that a significant portion of Democratic voters are looking elsewhere, with 18% still undecided. The fact that neither O’Rourke nor Crockett has officially entered the race raises questions about the direction of the party and its ability to rally behind a single candidate. The two announced candidates, Allred and Talarico, have struggled to gain traction, suggesting that the base may be holding out hope for a more high-profile contender.
It’s worth noting that the official Democratic field consists of former Rep. Colin Allred and state Rep. James Talarico, both of whom have established records in state and national politics. Allred, who previously ran against Senator Ted Cruz in 2024 and lost, was expected by some to be a frontrunner. However, with only 13% support in the poll, his campaign faces an uphill battle. Talarico, a progressive voice from Austin, has managed just 7% support, indicating that his message has yet to resonate broadly across the state.
The poll’s margin of error means that the differences between some candidates are within statistical uncertainty, but the overall trends are clear: Texas voters are still searching for their champions. The high proportion of undecided voters on both sides—nearly a third of Republicans and almost a fifth of Democrats—points to a race that is still very much in flux.
For the Democratic Party, the hope that Beto O’Rourke will enter the race is palpable. His previous campaigns have energized younger voters and progressives, and his name recognition remains unmatched among Texas Democrats. Jasmine Crockett, a rising star from Dallas, has also captured the imagination of many, particularly among urban and younger voters. If either were to officially announce a campaign, the dynamics of the race could shift dramatically.
Meanwhile, the Republican primary is shaping up as a test of the party’s internal divisions. Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2002, represents the establishment wing of the party, while Paxton, who has faced legal controversies but remains popular among the party’s right flank, offers a more combative, outsider approach. The eventual outcome will likely signal which direction Texas Republicans want to take heading into the general election.
Political observers note that the timing of official announcements could be crucial. With the primary less than six months away, candidates who wait too long to declare risk missing out on critical fundraising and organizational opportunities. At the same time, the current state of indecision suggests that there is still plenty of room for surprises. As Adam Powell, political reporter for the El Paso Times, observed, "most Texas voters remain undecided or support candidates who have not even entered the race yet." That uncertainty may persist until the field is fully set.
For now, both parties face a delicate balancing act: energizing their bases without alienating the broader electorate. In a state as large and diverse as Texas, that’s no small feat. The poll’s findings suggest that voters are watching closely and waiting for candidates who can articulate a compelling vision for the future—whether that comes from a familiar face like O’Rourke or Cornyn, or from a new contender who seizes the moment.
As the campaign season ramps up, all eyes will be on Texas to see who steps forward, who bows out, and whether the state’s famously unpredictable politics will deliver another surprise. With so much still undecided, one thing is certain: the 2026 Texas Senate race is poised to be one of the most closely watched contests in the nation.