The political landscape in Texas is heating up as two of the state’s most prominent Republicans, Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Senator John Cornyn, find themselves locked in a virtual dead heat for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate. At the same time, a shakeup is underway in the state’s attorney general race, with U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Austin, announcing his candidacy to replace Paxton, adding further intrigue to an already crowded Republican primary field. These developments, reported by The Texas Tribune, Spectrum News, and other outlets, offer a snapshot of the evolving dynamics within Texas’ political power structure as the 2026 election cycle looms.
According to a recent Emerson College Polling survey, Cornyn, a four-term incumbent, now holds a slim lead over Paxton among registered Republican voters—30% to 29%—with a significant 37% still undecided. This marks a dramatic shift from earlier polls, which had consistently shown Paxton leading by double digits. As Matt Taglia, senior director of Emerson College Polling, explained to Spectrum News, “These are two fairly popular Republicans in the state of Texas. People generally know who they are, and they may not be able to make up their minds, as far as which they would prefer, the incumbent senator or the challenger. Now, I think President Trump will certainly have a say in this, and when he does that, will most likely move the needle.”
Another poll conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University paints a slightly different picture, with Paxton leading Cornyn 44% to 39% among likely voters, and 17% unsure. The difference underscores just how fluid the race remains, with both candidates investing heavily in advertising and campaign events. Michael Adams, director of the Barbara Jordan Center, noted, “Not only has Senator Cornyn spent a significant amount of money on advertisement, but he has really been attacking Paxton based on a couple of moral concerns, and Paxton’s wife sort of helped Cornyn by filing for a divorce.”
Adding another wrinkle, U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Houston, is reportedly considering entering the race, already polling at 22% among likely Republican primary voters. The crowded field and high number of undecided voters suggest that endorsements—especially from figures like former President Donald Trump—could prove decisive.
On the Democratic side, the field is also taking shape. Former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred is currently the frontrunner, according to Emerson’s polling. However, the race could be upended if former El Paso U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke decides to run. A Texas Southern University poll found that O’Rourke would command 58% support among Democratic primary voters, compared to Allred’s 38%, with only 4% unsure. As Adams told Spectrum News, “O'Rourke has been front and center, and I think the type of charismatic candidacy that he brings, and if you look at the base within the Democratic Party, that he tends to energize, and I think our poll reflected that he runs very well amongst women, alright, Latino voters.”
Other potential Democratic contenders include state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, and U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-San Antonio. Polling shows Allred ahead in hypothetical two-way primaries against both Talarico (50% to 43%) and Castro (52% to 42%), but the numbers suggest that the Democratic field could shift quickly if new candidates enter the race. Despite this activity, Democrats face an uphill battle: no Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since the last century. Nevertheless, some polls suggest that Democrats might have a better chance of beating Paxton than Cornyn in a general election.
Meanwhile, the race to replace Ken Paxton as Texas attorney general is becoming one of the state’s most closely watched contests. U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, a conservative stalwart and policy chair of the House Freedom Caucus, announced on August 21, 2025, that he would enter the Republican primary. Roy, who served as Paxton’s top deputy for two years before becoming an outspoken critic, brings significant name recognition and more than $2.5 million in federal campaign funds to the race. In a statement quoted by The Texas Tribune, Roy declared, “Texas is under assault — from open-border politicians, radical leftists and faceless foreign corporations that threaten our sovereignty, safety and our way of life. It's time to draw a line in the sand. As Attorney General, I will fight every single day for our God-given rights, for our families and for the future of Texas.”
Roy’s candidacy is notable not just for his ideological credentials, but also for his sometimes antagonistic relationship with both Paxton and former President Trump. He was one of the few Texas Republicans to certify the 2020 election results and publicly opposed Paxton’s lawsuit seeking to overturn election outcomes in four states, calling the case a “dangerous violation of federalism.” In 2020, after senior staff at the Attorney General’s office reported Paxton to the FBI for alleged bribery and abuse of office, Roy was among the first to call for Paxton’s resignation, stating, “for the good of the people of Texas and the extraordinary public servants who serve at the Office of the Attorney General.”
In an interview with conservative radio host Mark Davis, Roy reflected on his relationship with Paxton, saying, “I wish Ken all the best. We have extraordinary overlapping belief systems. ... There were some differences of opinion. That happens in politics.” Roy also explained that his support for the impeachment effort against Paxton was based on wanting to “give the benefit of the doubt” to his former coworkers who had brought the allegations, and that the questions surrounding Paxton’s conduct had been addressed through the impeachment trial.
Roy’s entry into the attorney general race shakes up a field that already includes state Senators Joan Huffman of Houston and Mayes Middleton of Galveston, as well as Aaron Reitz, a former senior aide to Paxton. A recent Texas Southern University poll found the contest wide open, with 73% of likely Republican primary voters unsure whom to support. Huffman led the field at 12%, Middleton at 8%, and Reitz at 7%, but at least 60% of voters said they did not know enough about any of the candidates to form an opinion.
Roy’s decision to leave Congress and return to Texas was influenced in part by his experience witnessing the community response to the devastating July 4, 2025, Hill Country flooding. In his announcement, Roy noted, “Watching the community in my district come together ... made me want to return to Texas permanently.”
Roy’s departure from Congress is part of a broader exodus of House Freedom Caucus members, several of whom are seeking statewide office. The group, once known for its hardline stances and willingness to challenge GOP leadership, has seen its influence wane in 2025 after a series of high-profile capitulations on major legislative battles, as reported by The Washington Post and NBC News. The Freedom Caucus has also lost members to internal disputes and primary defeats, further diminishing its clout.
As Texas heads toward a pivotal election year, the outcome of these primary battles will not only determine the state’s political leadership but could also signal broader shifts within the Republican and Democratic parties. With so many voters still undecided and new candidates potentially entering the fray, the only certainty is that Texas politics will remain as unpredictable—and fascinating—as ever.
