As the 2026 midterm elections approach, two states—Texas and West Virginia—are capturing national attention for very different reasons. In Texas, Democrats sense a rare opening to seize a U.S. Senate seat, while in West Virginia, the financial woes of newly minted Senator Jim Justice continue to mount, casting a shadow over his political ascent.
Let’s start deep in the heart of Texas, where the political winds are shifting in unexpected ways. For years, strategists have argued that turning the Lone Star State blue would be a marathon, not a sprint. Yet, according to a Rolling Stone analysis published on October 25, 2025, the upcoming Senate race may present Democrats with an opportunity that’s been decades in the making.
Why now? The answer lies in a confluence of polling data, shifting demographics, and a Republican Party poised for internal strife. Recent surveys from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) reveal a state divided over Donald Trump’s hardline immigration policies. In late August 2025, 47% of Texans supported the uptick in ICE raids and enforcement, but a nearly equal 46% stood in opposition. Among Democrats, the opposition is overwhelming—77% disapprove—but what’s striking is that independent voters are also leaning away from Trump’s approach. A majority of independents (52%) oppose the recent ICE activity, with a significant 33% saying they "strongly" disagree with the tactics. Even among independents, more think Trump’s administration has gone "too far" (47%) than believe he’s "doing exactly what he was elected to do" (41%).
Latino voters, a pivotal bloc in Texas, are showing signs of disillusionment with Trump’s policies. The numbers are telling: 65% of Texas Latinos oppose the recent ICE actions, and 63% say immigration enforcement under Trump has gone too far. Trump’s favorability among Texas Latinos plummeted from -2 in February to -33 in August 2025—a jaw-dropping 31-point drop, as reported by Rolling Stone. This mirrors national trends and is echoed by TPOR polling, which pegged Trump’s favorability at -30 among Texas Latinos in August.
But the erosion of support isn’t limited to Latino voters. Statewide, Trump’s favorability rating has nosedived from +12 just after the 2024 election to -1 in August 2025. Among independents, 52% now view him unfavorably, and even 10% of his own 2024 voters have soured on the former president. With these shifts, the Republican advantage on a generic Senate ballot has shrunk to just 5%. For context, the margins are similarly slim in gubernatorial and attorney general races, with Republicans leading by only 3-6%.
Democrats, for their part, are fielding formidable contenders. U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, who outperformed Kamala Harris by 5.3 points in his 2024 race against Ted Cruz, is running with a message that’s resonating beyond party lines. State Rep. James Talarico, a rising star and fundraising powerhouse, has also jumped into the fray, capturing national attention. Either candidate would face a Republican opponent battered by what’s shaping up to be a bruising primary. The GOP field is crowded and contentious, featuring scandal-plagued State Attorney General Ken Paxton (the current MAGA favorite), the unpopular incumbent Senator John Cornyn (the establishment pick), and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who’s seen as a spoiler likely to split the anti-Cornyn vote.
That’s not to say a Democratic victory is guaranteed—far from it. As Rolling Stone points out, “the 2026 state elections are tight and are likely to stay that way. Even in the best-case scenario, a Democratic win in Texas will be a narrow one.” But the data suggest that the stars may finally be aligning for Democrats. The party’s infrastructure, both in Texas and nationally, will need to be nimble and bold to seize this fleeting chance.
Meanwhile, in West Virginia, the spotlight is on Senator Jim Justice for reasons that have little to do with electoral strategy and everything to do with mounting debt. Justice, who was elected to the U.S. Senate in November 2024 after serving two terms as governor, is facing a financial crisis that has escalated since he took office. According to the Associated Press, Justice’s fortune, once pegged at $1.9 billion by Forbes, has evaporated. By early 2025, Forbes estimated his net worth had plunged to "less than zero"—a stunning reversal attributed to liabilities far outstripping assets.
The cascade of debt is relentless. On October 2, 2025, the IRS filed liens totaling over $8 million against Justice and his wife Cathy for unpaid personal taxes, some dating back to 2009. Just a month earlier, state tax officials slapped $1.4 million in liens on the Greenbrier Hotel and its Sporting Club, both owned by the Justice family, for unpaid sales taxes. In late October, a scheduled foreclosure auction of several hundred lots owned by the family near Beckley was paused, pending a review by the state Supreme Court. The dispute centers on unpaid fees owed to a property owners association.
This isn’t the first time Justice’s companies have tangled with tax authorities. In 2021, the IRS filed liens over $1.1 million in unpaid taxes on the Greenbrier Hotel and $80,000 on the resort’s clinic—debts that were eventually settled. In 2024, the family narrowly avoided foreclosure of the storied 710-room Greenbrier Hotel, a property that has hosted presidents, royalty, and congressional retreats. The Greenbrier, which employs around 2,000 workers and boasts a casino, spa, and a vast underground Cold War bunker, remains a symbol of both Justice’s business ambitions and his financial troubles.
Justice’s explanation for the deluge of claims? During a recent media briefing, he described his companies as “complicated and complex,” praised his children’s management, and insisted that many of the collection efforts were politically motivated. “At the end of the day, I’d say just let it be and see how it all plays out,” he told reporters, according to the Associated Press.
Critics, however, are less charitable. The state Democratic Party has called the efforts to seize the Greenbrier “a direct consequence of his own financial incompetence.” Union officials have also raised alarms, noting that Justice’s family was at least $2.4 million behind in payments to an employees’ health insurance fund last year, jeopardizing workers’ coverage. In 2023, dozens of Justice-owned properties were auctioned to pay off delinquent real estate taxes, and environmental fines for his coal mines continue to pile up.
Justice’s political career has been as unconventional as his business dealings. He switched parties just seven months after becoming governor in 2017, and his tenure was marked by both controversy and a folksy persona—often accompanied by his pet bulldog, Babydog. Yet, West Virginia’s broader challenges persist. The state has one of the highest poverty rates in the country and has suffered significant population loss, losing a congressional seat after the 2020 Census. The exodus continued through Justice’s second term, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates.
As Texas Democrats eye a historic breakthrough and West Virginia’s newest senator faces mounting legal and financial hurdles, these two stories offer a snapshot of American politics in 2025—where opportunity and adversity can emerge in the most unexpected places.
