As the calendar inches toward the official end of hurricane season on November 30, 2025, Texans are experiencing a dramatic shift in weather threats. While the risk of a major hurricane striking the Lone Star State drops sharply after late September, officials are sounding the alarm over a new round of severe storms and wildfire dangers sweeping across the region this week.
According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University and a leading hurricane forecaster, "From September 25 onward, the odds of a Texas hurricane go way down." Historical records back him up: in the past 125 years, only three hurricanes have made landfall in Texas after that date—one in 1912, another in 1949, and Hurricane Jerry in 1989, as reported by Chron. Before 1950, storms weren’t even given names, so those earlier events carry a certain air of mystery.
Why does the risk plummet so quickly? As Dr. Klotzbach explained to Chron, it’s all about the changing seasons. "Upper-level winds tend to blow quite strongly out of the west in October, as more fronts cross through Texas," he said. These strong westerly winds act like a broom, sweeping storms away from Texas and toward Florida. That’s not all—these same fronts bring dry air into the Gulf of Mexico, which, as Klotzbach noted, "helps to squelch the strong thunderstorms that are the building blocks of hurricanes."
There’s also the matter of vertical wind shear, which increases during this period and disrupts the structure of tropical systems. Meanwhile, strong surface winds stir up the ocean, cooling Gulf waters and effectively cutting off the fuel supply for any would-be hurricanes. It’s a triple whammy that makes late-season hurricanes in Texas a rarity.
But Klotzbach cautioned that the risk isn’t entirely gone. "So, it's not to say that we can't get hurricanes in late September and in October that make landfall in Texas, but the odds are pretty low," he told Chron. The Atlantic hurricane season officially continues through November 30, and meteorologists will keep a close eye on the Gulf and western Caribbean for any late bloomers.
While the threat of a hurricane is fading for most of South Texas and the Gulf Coast, another set of dangers is ramping up. On September 23, 2025, Governor Greg Abbott announced that he had directed the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) to activate state emergency response resources ahead of severe weather forecasted to impact Texans across the state this week. The National Weather Service has warned of multiple rounds of severe storms expected to hit the northern half of Texas starting Tuesday and continuing through the end of the week. Potential hazards include large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding—as reported by FOX 44.
The risk isn’t confined to the northern regions. According to the National Weather Service, the threat is expected to expand further south as the week progresses. That means communities across Texas need to stay vigilant. Governor Abbott has also ordered the mobilization of additional wildfire response resources, supplementing those already activated last month, as wildfire conditions continue to threaten Texas communities, especially in the western half of the state.
The Texas A&M Forest Service is closely monitoring the increased wildfire risk. In a coordinated response, several state agencies have been brought into action. The Texas A&M Engineering Extension Service (Texas A&M Task Force 1) has deployed swiftwater rescue boat squads to assist with flood rescues. The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department is mobilizing game wardens, rescue boat teams, and helicopters with hoist capabilities for similar missions.
Medical support is also on standby. The Texas Department of State Health Services has prepared Severe Weather Support Packages, including medics, ambulances, and all-terrain vehicles, ready for deployment. On the wildfire front, the Texas A&M Forest Service has called up state and local firefighters, along with support personnel, fire engines, bulldozers, and motor graders. Federally contracted firefighting aircraft—including large air tankers, single-engine air tankers for retardant drops, and an air attack platform for surveillance and spotting—are all on alert.
Other key players in the emergency response include the Texas National Guard, which has Chinook and Blackhawk helicopters equipped for firefighting, and the Texas Department of Transportation, whose personnel are monitoring road conditions. The Texas Department of Public Safety is fielding helicopters with hoist capabilities, Highway Patrol Troopers, and the Tactical Marine Unit. The Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service has mobilized Disaster Assessment and Recovery Agents, as well as County Extension Agents, to support agricultural and livestock needs. The Public Utility Commission of Texas is monitoring power outages and coordinating with utility providers, while the Railroad Commission of Texas is keeping tabs on the state’s natural gas supply and maintaining communication with the oil and gas industry. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality is handling air, water, and wastewater monitoring.
Governor Abbott’s message to Texans is clear: be prepared. Residents are urged to follow local officials’ instructions, make emergency plans, and build kits containing essential supplies. Texans can access severe weather safety tips at TexasReady.gov, check road conditions at DriveTexas.org, obtain flood safety information at TexasFlood.org, and find current wildfire information at tfsweb.tamu.edu.
For those who might be tempted to let their guard down as hurricane season winds down, the current spate of severe weather serves as a pointed reminder that Mother Nature doesn’t always stick to the script. Even as the likelihood of a late-season hurricane making landfall in Texas drops, the state remains vulnerable to other forms of extreme weather. The combination of severe storms and wildfire risk poses a unique challenge for emergency responders and everyday Texans alike.
As Dr. Klotzbach and state officials have emphasized, vigilance is key. The recent activation of emergency resources across Texas is a testament to the unpredictable nature of the state’s climate—and the importance of staying ready for whatever comes next. With the memory of past storms and wildfires still fresh, Texans are once again being called upon to prepare, respond, and support one another as they navigate the closing stretch of hurricane season and face the hazards of a volatile fall weather pattern.
The coming weeks will test the resilience and readiness of Texas communities. While the window for a major hurricane threat is closing fast, the state’s emergency systems remain on high alert, ready to pivot as conditions demand. For Texans, the message is as urgent as ever: stay informed, stay prepared, and don’t underestimate the power of nature—even after the storm clouds seem to have passed.
