It’s a political tug-of-war that’s got the whole country watching: Texas and California, the two most populous states in the nation, are locked in a high-stakes feud over congressional redistricting that could tip the balance of power in Washington after the 2026 midterm elections. The drama, fueled by President Donald Trump’s push for Republican gains and Governor Gavin Newsom’s countermove for Democrats, has quickly become the defining battle over who gets to draw the lines—and, by extension, who gets to rule the House of Representatives.
On Friday, August 15, 2025, Texas Republicans kicked off a second special session at the state Capitol in Austin, determined to approve new congressional maps that would help the GOP gain as many as five more U.S. House seats. Their first special session fizzled out after a nearly two-week Democratic walkout left the House without enough members present to pass any legislation. Governor Greg Abbott wasted no time, calling lawmakers back for another round, but the session began with Democrats still absent and the chamber short of a quorum. That could change soon, as some absent Democrats have signaled they’ll return once California Democrats formally unveil their own redistricting plan—a move expected later that same Friday.
According to El Paso Matters, the newly introduced Texas redistricting plan, House Bill 4, keeps key areas like Fort Bliss and El Paso International Airport in the district of Democrat Veronica Escobar. This is a departure from the earlier map, which would have moved these economic engines into the Republican-held 23rd District. The only changes in the latest version from the first special session are in El Paso County, but the heart of the GOP strategy remains the same: redraw the state’s 38 congressional districts to give Republicans five new safe seats, boosting their current 25-13 advantage in the Texas delegation.
Democrats, for their part, aren’t going quietly. Many have remained out of state—some in Illinois, Massachusetts, or New York—beyond the reach of civil warrants Texas Speaker Dustin Burrows has threatened to issue for their arrest under legislative rules. Burrows accused the Democrats of “following Gov. Newsom’s lead instead of the will of Texans.” He added, “Let’s be ready to work,” while ticking through a list of urgent issues facing the state, though he notably avoided mentioning redistricting by name.
Governor Abbott and Speaker Burrows have blamed Democrats for stalling not just redistricting but also crucial flood relief measures after devastating floods in July killed over 130 people. “Delinquent House Democrats ran away from their responsibility to pass crucial legislation to benefit the lives of Texans,” Abbott said in a statement Friday. Democrats, in turn, argue that Republicans are the ones holding up flood relief by tying it to the redistricting fight at Trump’s urging. “We are in basically a cold Civil War that we’re starting by capitulating to a person in the White House,” said Rep. Eddie Morales, one of the few Democrats who remained in Austin during the walkout.
Meanwhile, in California, Governor Gavin Newsom is preparing a bold countermove. As reported by multiple outlets including San Diego’s KPBS, Newsom announced that California will hold a special referendum on November 4, 2025, on redrawn congressional districts intended to give Democrats five more U.S. House seats. “We can’t stand back and watch this democracy disappear district by district all across the country,” Newsom declared. He has made it clear that California’s plan is a direct response to Texas and that he’d pause the effort if Texas does the same. “Donald Trump called up Governor Abbott for one simple reason: to rig the 2026 elections,” Newsom said. “California’s moral high ground means nothing if we’re powerless because of it. This moment requires us to be prepared to fight fire with fire.”
This tit-for-tat approach is not without controversy, even among California’s own leaders. Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a longtime opponent of partisan gerrymandering, posted a photo of himself at the gym wearing a T-shirt reading, “Terminate gerrymandering,” signaling his strong opposition to Newsom’s plan despite their recent conversation. “I’m getting ready for the gerrymandering battle,” Schwarzenegger wrote, making it clear he won’t side with his fellow Democrats.
California’s redistricting process has long been touted as a model for fairness. In 2010, voters passed the Voters FIRST Act, creating the independent Citizens Redistricting Commission—composed of five Republicans, five Democrats, and four nonpartisan members—to draw congressional maps. “In 2010, California voters passed the Voters FIRST Act by over 20 points, giving the independent California Citizens Redistricting Commission the sole authority of drawing California’s congressional districts,” the state’s GOP delegation said in a statement. “Today, Governor Newsom, flanked by Texas Democrats, announced that he stands ready to take power away from the Citizens Commission and place it back into the hands of Sacramento politicians to further his left-wing political agenda.”
Democrats in Congress from California’s San Diego region, however, are backing Newsom’s plan as a necessary response to what they call Republican manipulation in Texas and other states. “Donald Trump knows his policies are so unpopular that the only way he’ll win in the midterms is to rig the maps,” Rep. Sara Jacobs said. “If Texas moves forward with redistricting, California won’t hesitate to do the same. We won’t stand idly by while Donald Trump attempts to steal power from the American people.” Rep. Scott Peters and Rep. Mike Levin echoed this sentiment, with Levin saying, “With states like Texas using extreme gerrymandering to tilt the playing field, we cannot unilaterally disarm. It is reasonable to consider a one-time, temporary measure to protect fair representation.”
The stakes are enormous. Nationally, the current district lines leave Democrats within just three seats of a majority in the 435-member House. Only a few dozen districts are truly competitive, so even modest changes in Texas or California could swing control of Congress. The new maps in both states would remain in effect through the 2030 elections, unless voters or courts intervene. The partisan makeup of the House after 2026 could hinge on what happens in these two states over the coming weeks and months.
As for the mechanics, Texas’s maps are drawn by its Republican-controlled legislature, which has held power for more than two decades. California, until now, has entrusted the task to its independent commission. But if Newsom’s plan goes forward, Sacramento politicians would take the reins—at least temporarily. Newsom has promised that after the 2026 cycle, mapmaking power would return to the commission that voters approved in 2008.
Other states are watching closely—and some are already taking steps of their own. Trump has urged Republican-led states to redraw their maps, even dispatching Vice President JD Vance to Indiana to apply pressure. In Missouri, the state Senate received a $46,000 invoice for redistricting software and training, according to documents obtained by The Associated Press. Newsom has encouraged other Democratic-led states to “stand up—not just California.”
For now, the battle lines are drawn, both literally and figuratively. Lawsuits are expected, and the rhetoric is heating up. Republican former Governor Schwarzenegger’s opposition, Democratic Rep. Joe Moody’s charge that the Texas plan is “fascist,” and the mutual threats of escalation all point to a messy, consequential fight. The outcome will shape not just the next election, but the very rules of American democracy for years to come.
This struggle over redistricting is more than a partisan squabble; it’s a test of how far each side is willing to go to shape the future of Congress. The next moves—by Texas, California, and perhaps others—will have the whole nation watching, and waiting, to see who blinks first.
