Arabica coffee prices took a hit on September 5, 2025, as the global market braced for the ripple effects of the United States’ latest tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports. The move, part of President Donald Trump’s ongoing America First trade policy, has left traders, coffee roasters, and local businesses scrambling to adjust to a landscape marked by uncertainty, higher costs, and supply chain snags. For many in the industry, the current situation is reminiscent of the COVID-19 pandemic’s disruptions—but with a new set of challenges.
According to Reuters, Arabica coffee futures on ICE settled down 0.75 cent, or 0.2%, at $3.7365 per pound on September 5, after a month of dramatic gains. The week saw a 3.2% decline, underscoring just how sensitive the market has become to policy swings and legal developments. As traders and producers waited for clarity on whether the 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee would persist, many kept a close eye on the U.S. Supreme Court, which was expected to rule on the legality of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. A sharp correction could be on the horizon if the court upholds a federal appeals court’s decision that Trump overstepped his authority.
Brazil, which provides about a third of all coffee consumed in the U.S., has seen its farmers react to the uncertainty by holding back sales. As a result, Brazilian coffee exports plummeted 31% in August 2025 to 2.38 million bags, according to data cited by Reuters. This hesitation from one of the world’s coffee giants has sent American buyers scrambling to secure beans from alternative sources, including ICE-certified stocks, which are now hovering at their lowest levels in over a year.
The impact of tariffs isn’t limited to the global market—it’s hitting close to home for businesses in the Ozarks and across the United States. Local coffee roasters, such as Ozark Mountain Coffee Company, are facing tariffs on green coffee for the first time in modern memory. As reported by the News-Leader, green coffee had long been excluded from tariffs because it’s not widely grown in the U.S., aside from small operations in Hawaii and Puerto Rico. But this year, everything changed. In April, a 10% blanket tariff was imposed on coffee imports, with an additional 50% specifically targeting Brazilian coffee in early August.
Preston Blake, co-owner of Ozark Mountain Coffee Company, described the new reality as uncharted territory. “If anything happens to Brazil, it affects everybody else, because they produce so much,” he told the News-Leader. “It just sucks. We’re paying more for the same thing, basically.” With global coffee prices already on the rise due to unfavorable weather conditions and supply constraints, the tariffs have forced the company to increase its prices by 10-15%. To soften the blow for customers, the company also shifted to a flat-rate shipping charge of $4.95 on all orders, rolling some of the shipping costs into product prices—a move Blake said was becoming common across the industry.
“It kind of made it seem like shipping was expensive when really our prices were just that much under everybody else,” Blake explained. “So, we switched it to ... put some shipping costs into the price, so we could offer flat-rate shipping anywhere in the U.S. It honestly just looks better, people like it more.”
Even with these adjustments, the company’s price hikes are in line with a broader trend: industry-wide, coffee prices have climbed roughly 14.5% compared to a year ago. For context, Blake noted that in a more typical year, he’d expect to raise prices by just 3% to keep pace with inflation. The hope now is that these increases will hold for at least two years, but much depends on how the market and policy landscape evolves.
To mitigate the impact, Ozark Mountain Coffee Company has been overbuying beans and locking in contracts to avoid the worst of the volatility. “We’re probably saving like 25% or 30% over what it should be, depending on the tariff,” Blake said. “But eventually, those contracts will run out .... So, everything’s high, and it may get worse.” The uncertainty is palpable, especially with the company’s Brazilian contracts set to expire at the end of February. If tariffs remain in place and global conditions don’t improve, further price hikes may be inevitable.
Other businesses in the Ozarks are feeling the pressure too. Whitney Creehan, co-operator of the Springfield store Kaleidoscope, compared the current climate to the early days of the pandemic. “This is like COVID times, only worse,” she said. “Then, it was a stock issue ... This is just like every other day is a new ‘Are we gonna get this?’ .... [and] ‘Are people gonna be able to afford this?’” The uncertainty has forced many businesses to stock up on inventory to delay the impact of tariffs, but this strategy comes with its own headaches—upfront costs, storage challenges, and the risk of overstocking items that may not sell.
Tariffs have also led to disruptions in supply chains, with some foreign suppliers halting shipments to the U.S. or American distributors dropping products that could be subject to tariffs. Creehan shared a recent example: after ordering a specific smoking accessory from Canada, she was hit with a $168 tariff on a $320 order. “That’s insane, and that’s not sustainable at all,” she said, adding that many customers don’t realize how these added costs trickle down to them.
To adapt, some businesses have started offering new, tariff-free options. Kaleidoscope, for instance, launched a small thrift section—a move that began before tariffs but has since proven a useful buffer against rising costs. Still, the broader uncertainty remains a heavy burden. David Mitchell, an economics professor at Missouri State University, noted that the unpredictability of tariffs “hurts almost as bad as tariffs do.” Businesses are left guessing how much to raise prices, risking lost revenue if they miscalculate or if customers balk at sudden increases.
For those wondering why businesses can’t just buy American, the answer isn’t so simple. Not all products are made domestically, and setting up local supply chains can take years and may not be cost-effective due to higher labor costs. As Creehan pointed out, imported goods help keep prices accessible for customers: “It’s something that people can afford. Kids can come in and buy themselves a little thing. We don’t want to have everything be $30.”
The current tariff turmoil is yet another reminder of the interconnectedness of global trade and the vulnerability of local businesses to policy shifts and external shocks. As the legal and economic battles play out, business owners across the Ozarks and the nation are bracing for whatever comes next—hoping for stability, but preparing for more turbulence ahead.
