In a year marked by shifting economic tides and geopolitical tensions, the global tourism and food markets across the Americas have undergone dramatic changes. From the bustling aisles of Rio de Janeiro’s supermarkets to the sun-kissed beaches of Cancun, the interplay of tariffs, trade wars, and new travel policies is reshaping both what people eat and where they choose to vacation. While American consumers are feeling the pinch of higher grocery bills and a dwindling influx of international tourists, Latin American countries like Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina are experiencing an unexpected boom—at least for now.
According to a recent survey by the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (Dieese) and the National Supply Company (Conab), prices for staple foods such as tomatoes, meat, rice, and coffee fell in August 2025 compared to July in 24 of Brazil’s 27 state capitals. For many Brazilians, this was a rare piece of good news amid economic uncertainty. "At last some good news in these difficult times," Julienne Freitas, a shopper in Rio, told DW. Her optimism is shared by many who have noticed tangible relief at the checkout counter.
What’s driving these lower prices? The answer, as Leandro Dias of the agricultural platform AgroDeri explained to DW, lies partly in the natural cycles of agriculture. "In agriculture, we live by cycles. In the case of coffee, for example, we had a good harvest, which naturally increased supply and reduced prices. With meat, something similar is happening: the cattle cycle is in a phase of high supply of fattening livestock, so the domestic market is feeling this drop in prices."
But there’s another, less natural force at play: U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products. In the wake of former president Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction and sentencing to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup d’état, the United States imposed punitive tariffs on Brazilian goods. Washington cited concerns over repression of the opposition and freedom of expression as justification, but Brazil’s current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has criticized the move as unfair, pointing to the independence of the judiciary. The Brazilian government also notes that the U.S. continues to run a trade surplus with Brazil, with exports to the U.S. reaching nearly $23.7 billion between January and July 2025—the highest figure ever for that period—while U.S. imports from Brazil rose 12.6% to $26 billion, resulting in a $2.3 billion U.S. trade surplus.
Economist Douglas Eustaquio of Grupo Boticario told DW that the tariffs have had a swift, if paradoxical, impact: "Due to the tariffs, products that were previously destined wholly or partly for the U.S. market will now remain in Brazil. And this surplus will supply the domestic market." In simple terms, what American consumers can’t buy due to higher prices and import restrictions, Brazilians can now purchase for less.
This phenomenon isn’t limited to Brazil. In Mexico, tomato prices have dropped for similar reasons. Javier Reyes Escamilla, president of the Central-North Regional Cattlemen’s Union of the State of Mexico, told Milenio, "In the region, there is a large production. Producers from the north of the country are trying to sell it in the central [Mexican] states instead of exporting it to the U.S., so the price is going down." For now, local consumers are reaping the benefits.
Yet, as Brazilian economist Dirlene Silva warns, these gains may be short-lived. "If the producer loses access to an important market like the U.S., there is no longer any incentive to invest," Silva told Confidencial. The result? Over time, less investment in technology and productivity, a potential decline in quality, and eventually, a reversal of fortune as supplies dwindle and prices rise again. The warning is clear: today’s bargains could become tomorrow’s shortages.
Meanwhile, the global tourism industry is experiencing its own set of dramatic shifts. As of September 20, 2025, the United States is facing its eighth consecutive month of declining international tourism, attributed to trade wars with Mexico and Canada, higher tariffs, and stricter immigration controls. The U.S. has also been excluded from several major international tourism trade events this year, further isolating its tourism industry and making recovery an uphill battle. Many global travel agencies are now less likely to promote the U.S. as a top destination, leaving the country with a significant gap in its tourism market.
Canada, for its part, has responded to these changes by launching public consultations regarding the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), seeking input on how the agreement affects travel and trade. At the same time, the Canadian government has issued a new travel advisory for Brazil, urging caution due to rising security concerns. Similar advisories have been issued for Mexico, India, and Malaysia, which could impact Canadian tourist flows to these destinations.
While the U.S. grapples with these setbacks, Mexico is thriving. Tourism to Mexico has surged in 2025, especially in coastal hotspots like Cancun and Playa del Carmen. The main drivers? American and Canadian travelers who now find Mexico more accessible and attractive than the U.S., given the latter’s restrictive policies. Hotel bookings, flights, and tourism services are all at near-record highs. And with the introduction of a new electronic visa system for Brazilian nationals set to take effect in 2026, the country is poised to welcome even more visitors from South America.
Argentina, too, is enjoying a banner year. The country has seen record numbers of international tourists, with a notable influx from Germany. The Argentine government has seized the moment by promoting eco-tourism and cultural experiences that appeal to a wide range of travelers. Its diverse landscapes and vibrant cities have made it a must-visit destination in Latin America, and experts predict the tourism boom will continue.
Brazil, despite political instability and security concerns, is determined to reclaim its status as a global travel hotspot. The appointment of a new Minister of Tourism in 2025 signals a renewed focus on revitalizing the country’s image. Efforts are underway to improve safety, upgrade infrastructure, and launch promotional campaigns targeting visitors from Latin America and Europe. With its world-renowned beaches and iconic landmarks, Brazil hopes to attract a new generation of international travelers.
As the Americas navigate these turbulent times, one thing is clear: the ripple effects of tariffs, trade disputes, and shifting travel policies are being felt in supermarkets and airports alike. While some consumers and travelers enjoy temporary windfalls, economists caution that the long-term consequences may be less rosy. The future of food prices and tourism in the region will depend on how governments, industries, and travelers adapt to this new and unpredictable landscape.
