Across the United States and its northern neighbor Canada, a quiet but unmistakable shift is underway: more people are eating at home, and fewer Canadians are crossing the border for their once-cherished American getaways. The reasons—ranging from economic pressures to diplomatic tensions—are as layered as a well-made lasagna, and the effects are rippling through supermarkets, restaurants, tourist hubs, and even political offices.
Recent data, analyzed by Reuters and corroborated by industry experts, paints a picture of consumers tightening their belts—sometimes literally. As of August 20, 2025, analysts and company executives have noted that cash-conscious shoppers are increasingly opting to dine in rather than out, a trend that’s lifted the prospects of supermarkets and food delivery companies. The change is not isolated to the United States; it’s being felt across the Eurozone too. According to figures from Rabobank and Eurostat, food retail sales volumes in supermarkets and similar stores grew by 1.5% between January and May 2025—up from a mere 0.1% in the same period last year. Meanwhile, restaurants and bars saw a 0.3% decline in inflation-adjusted sales, a reversal from flat growth in 2024.
What’s driving this homeward migration of mealtime? Partly, it’s the economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures that have become hallmarks of the current era. U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, which have rattled global supply chains and stoked inflation fears, are a significant factor. Many consumers are questioning whether the cost of eating out is justified anymore. As Marilena Graziano, a teacher from Florence, told Reuters, “I eat much more at home because first of all eating out is way more expensive lately, and quality is not always guaranteed.”
Supermarkets are responding in kind. Dutch retailer Ahold Delhaize, which owns Food Lion and Giant stores in the U.S., has ramped up its affordable meal offerings. "We have solutions for customers to have a very affordable meal of $2.50 per person at home with the family," CEO Frans Muller explained in an interview this month. "We have increased a lot of that proposition in our stores." It’s a strategy reminiscent of the COVID-19 pandemic, when home cooking became not just a necessity but a new norm.
Food delivery companies, too, are seeing a resurgence. Delivery Hero, the parent of Glovo and Foodpanda, noted that economic hardship leads people to go out less—but not necessarily to eat out less. Instead, many are turning to food delivery as a cheaper and more convenient alternative to restaurants. According to a recent survey commissioned by meal-kit provider Hellofresh, 93% of over 5,000 U.S. adults expect to cook as much or more in the coming year compared to last. The growing popularity of grab-and-go meals, salads, wraps, and sandwiches is also chipping away at traditional restaurant demand, Rabobank analyst Maria Castroviejo told Reuters. "This offer has increased and improved a lot and we know that this is taking away some demands from certain foodservice players," she added.
But the story doesn’t end at the dinner table. The same economic and political forces reshaping eating habits are also transforming travel patterns—especially for Canadians who, for decades, have been a reliable source of tourism revenue for U.S. border states. The numbers are stark: new U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shows that only 277,000 people entered Maine from Canada in July 2025, a 28% drop compared to July 2024. It’s the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines. Statistics Canada reports a 37% drop in Canadian car visits to the U.S. in July 2025 compared to the previous year, following a 33% decrease in June. Even air travel from Canada to the U.S. is down 26% over the same period.
What’s behind this dramatic decline? Much of it can be traced to a souring of relations between the two countries. President Trump’s rhetoric—at one point suggesting Canada could be annexed as the 51st U.S. state—and his administration’s ramped-up tariffs have not gone unnoticed north of the border. The tension has prompted not just political pushback but also grassroots responses. In July 2025, rallies supporting Canadian business and friendship were held in multiple U.S. border states, organized by residents worried about the local impacts of strained relations. Governor Janet Mills of Maine is working to repair the relationship, hoping to claw back some of the lost tourism dollars.
Canadian officials are equally vocal. British Columbia Premier David Eby criticized U.S. leadership, stating, "Do they think Canadians are not going to respond when the president says, 'I want to turn you into the 51st state and beggar you economically unless you bow to the U.S.'?" The remark highlights the deep sense of offense and economic anxiety felt by many Canadians.
The economic consequences are substantial. Canadian tourists have historically made up nearly a quarter of all foreign travelers to the U.S., spending an estimated $20.5 billion in 2024. The areas hardest hit by the downturn are states along the northern border. Seattle, for example, saw a 27% drop in Canadian visitors, while Portland experienced an 18% decrease. At least 20 U.S. cities recorded more than 10% fewer Canadian tourists from January through June 2025, according to Tourism Economics. The firm’s experts attribute the decline in U.S. inbound Canadian arrivals to "the apparent negative consequence of a mix of Trump administration policies and statements that have shifted sentiment and raised concerns among many potential travelers."
The effects of these intertwined trends are being felt on both sides of the border. For supermarkets and food delivery companies, the shift toward eating at home has been a boon, providing a silver lining amid broader economic concerns. For restaurants and tourism-dependent cities, however, the picture is far less rosy. The drop in Canadian visitors is not just a matter of lost revenue; it’s a sign of deeper diplomatic strains that could take years to mend.
As families gather around their kitchen tables and border towns count fewer Canadian license plates, one thing is clear: the choices people make about where to eat and where to travel are shaped by forces far beyond their control. Whether these trends will reverse if political winds shift remains to be seen. For now, though, the data tells a story of adaptation, resilience, and the sometimes unpredictable consequences of global policy decisions.
