As 2025 draws to a close, Americans from all walks of life are feeling the pinch of tariffs and trade wars more than ever before. While politicians tout tough stances against foreign competitors—especially China—the reality on the ground tells a far more complicated (and costly) story. According to a recent S&P Global study, companies across the United States are projected to shoulder at least $1.2 trillion more in expenses this year than previously anticipated. But here’s the kicker: more than $900 billion of that burden is being absorbed not by corporations, but by U.S. consumers themselves (The Guardian, S&P Global).
That’s not just a theoretical number. The Yale Budget Lab estimates that tariffs will cost each American household almost $2,400 more in 2025. For families already coping with inflation and stagnant wages, that’s a significant hit—one that’s reshaping grocery lists, family budgets, and even holiday plans (The Guardian, Yale Budget Lab).
Paige Harris, a 38-year-old mother of two from Stella, North Carolina, has seen the impact up close. “Items that I have bought regularly have gone up in price steadily,” she told The Guardian. “From hair dye to baby formula, our grocery list has gotten smaller while our budget has had to increase. Meats like steak are a no-go for our household.” Like many others interviewed, Harris says the tariffs’ impact on her daily life contradicts promises from the Trump administration to “cut prices and make living affordable for everyone.”
She’s not alone. A Harris poll conducted for The Guardian found that 74% of respondents reported household cost increases ranging from $100 to $749. People like Jean Meadows, a 74-year-old retiree in Huntsville, Alabama, are making tough choices. “Prices are way too high. I mostly shop at Costco and buy as little as possible anywhere else,” she said. “I can’t imagine that stores haven’t noticed the change. I think people are really afraid of what is coming.”
For those on fixed incomes, the situation is especially dire. Myron Peeler, a retired caregiver for his wife in Pennsylvania, noted, “The bread I buy has doubled in price within a year. We live on a fixed income that doesn’t keep up with inflation.” The only saving grace, he said, is that his house and car are paid off.
Empty shelves and product shortages have also become part of the new normal. Natalie, a semi-retired New Hampshire resident, observed, “The store shelves have become more and more bare … instead of multiple choices there may only be one or two, and name brands are being replaced by store brands.” Even pet owners aren’t immune: “Any brand of cat food has increased anywhere from 25% to double the price. One wet food my cats like went from $1.79 to $2.49 per can,” she said.
So how did we get here? Much of the blame is being placed on the high tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, especially those targeting countries like China and India. These import duties, which now average around 58% on Chinese exports according to the Peterson Institute for Economics, were intended to “level the playing field” and reinvigorate American manufacturing. But the ripple effects have been far-reaching—and not always in the way policymakers intended (The Guardian, Peterson Institute).
Ken Polehn, a second-generation farmer from The Dalles, Oregon, painted a vivid picture of how these policies are playing out in the agricultural heartland. “Tariffs aimed at foreign powers are breaking the backs of America’s farmers—and most consumers don’t even see it happening,” he wrote in his widely shared commentary. Polehn explained that new port and ship fees on foreign-built vessels, sold as a way to make foreign shippers pay their fair share, ultimately result in higher freight rates. Exporters then lower the prices they pay for crops like cherries, pears, and wheat, leaving farmers squeezed between global buyers and government policy.
“If we try to raise prices, buyers just turn to Brazil, Argentina, or Europe,” Polehn noted. “That’s how a tariff becomes a boomerang. The target is overseas, but the blow lands on American soil.” He recalled the 2018–2020 trade war, when China retaliated against U.S. farm exports, causing prices for soybeans, cherries, and pork to collapse and prompting Washington to send $28 billion in emergency “relief payments.” But as Polehn put it, “That wasn’t compensation. It was triage.”
For many in agriculture, the story is painfully familiar. “Most consumers never see it. Grocery prices might rise, and people assume the farmer is getting rich. The truth is, most of us are selling below our cost of production. We’re getting squeezed from both ends—global buyers on one side, government policy on the other,” Polehn wrote.
The broader business community is feeling the strain as well. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, cited by CNBC, confirmed that “prices rose further during the reporting period” and that “tariff-induced input cost increases were reported across many Districts.” The extent to which these higher costs have been passed on to final prices varies, but the consumer is often left holding the bag.
President Trump, for his part, has doubled down on his approach. After China moved to restrict exports of rare earth minerals vital for everything from electric vehicle batteries to hospital equipment, Trump threatened a 100% tariff on Chinese goods as soon as November. In an interview with Fox News, he admitted the proposed hike was “not sustainable” but insisted, “They forced me to do that.” The White House maintains that tariffs are necessary to protect American jobs and manufacturing, but critics argue that the costs are simply too high for ordinary people to bear (The Guardian, Fox News).
For many Americans, the changes are not just about numbers on a spreadsheet—they’re about real sacrifices. Minnie, a 55-year-old food writer in Portland, Oregon, summed up her family’s new reality: “I don’t shop for non-essentials. No fall shopping trips for a new sweater or jeans. And we’ll make all our Christmas presents this year. We used to dine out once a week. Now we never eat out. Even fast-casual is insanely pricey. Everything is twice what it used to cost and we’re very afraid of what’s next, financially speaking.”
Even as the national inflation rate hovers around 2.9%, a marked improvement from pandemic-era spikes, tariffs have kept the pressure on wallets across the country. For Cassie, a 25-year-old consultant in Siler City, North Carolina, the impact has been immediate and disruptive. “Now I must visit at least four different stores in the area and other towns, often driving longer distances to find the best prices,” she explained. “During the summer months and the Mexico/Latin America tariff announcement, Walmart and other stores in the area ran out of bananas for around two weeks. No one could get bananas in my area.”
Amid all the rhetoric about tough trade policy and economic patriotism, the daily reality for millions of Americans is one of higher costs, fewer choices, and growing anxiety. As Ken Polehn put it, “We don’t need another bailout. We need a government that knows who’s really paying the bill.”
