It has been a turbulent year for trade between the United States and Canada, with New Hampshire caught squarely in the crossfire. The drama began in March 2025 when President Donald Trump’s administration slapped a 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, sparking an immediate and robust response from Ottawa. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government retaliated with tariffs on a staggering $60 billion worth of American goods, sending shockwaves through cross-border industries and leaving businesses scrambling to adapt.
By late August, the landscape shifted yet again. Carney announced that most of Canada’s retaliatory tariffs would be lifted by September 1, 2025—a move he argued was in Canada’s economic interest and essential for moving negotiations forward with the U.S. But not everyone was convinced. As reported by CBC, Canada’s Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre lambasted the decision, calling it “yet another capitulation and climb-down by Mark Carney.” He accused the prime minister of showing weakness, remarking, “His elbows have mysteriously gone missing.” Workers and industry leaders echoed the criticism. Catherine Cobden, president and CEO of the Canadian Steel Producers Association, labeled the removal of counter-tariffs “a disappointment,” insisting that “reciprocal tariffs protect Canada’s industries and workers during this trade war.” Marty Warren, national director of the United Steelworkers, piled on, urging the federal government to “remain steadfast in working to not only safeguard and protect Canadian workers but aggressively build Canadian economic resiliency.”
For many in New Hampshire, the impact has been immediate and measurable. According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade Bureau, by June 2025, the state’s exports to Canada had plummeted by 42.6% compared to the same period in 2024. In raw numbers, the Granite State shipped about $400 million in goods north of the border by mid-year, a stark contrast to the $1.2 billion sent over the entirety of 2024. As the New Hampshire Bulletin noted, Canada remains the state’s second-largest export market, buoyed by sales of aircraft and spacecraft parts from companies like Marmon Aerospace & Defense and GE Aviation, as well as machinery and fabricated metal products. Yet, while exports to Canada have cratered, New Hampshire’s exports to Germany and Mexico have actually risen—by 3.2% and 14.9% respectively in June 2025.
Overall, the state’s total exports to all countries were down by 4.19% in June 2025, underscoring the broader uncertainty wrought by the ongoing tariff battle. Adam Boltik, program manager at New Hampshire’s Department of Business and Economic Affairs (BEA), told the Bulletin that while it’s difficult to pinpoint the exact cause of the export slump, “with something like a 40% drop, that does make you look.” The BEA has responded by regularly updating businesses on tariff changes and offering support in finding alternative markets or suppliers. Still, Boltik admits that much of the department’s knowledge comes from anecdotes, as comprehensive data is hard to come by. “When companies will come to me and say, ‘Hey, I’ve got this coming in from Country X and all of a sudden, there’s a tariff on it. What happens?’” he said, reflecting the confusion many businesses face.
As officials on both sides of the border work to restore stability, there are efforts underway to patch up frayed ties. Early September will see a trade mission involving New Hampshire leaders and business representatives from both countries, culminating in an “intimate reception” in Quebec City attended by Governor Kelly Ayotte. Plans include a bus tour to Nova Scotia via Littleton, with the goal of strengthening cross-border business relationships. Sen. Tim McGough, chairman of the New Hampshire Canadian Trade Council, expressed optimism about the mission, noting, “We’re pretty happy to have a good contingent of significant business leaders joining us on the bus. They’re a captive audience, and they’re looking forward to the captive audience too.”
Canadian officials, too, remain hopeful. René Sylvestre, Québec’s delegate to New England, told the Bulletin, “Our economies are so intertwined that we’re still looking to do business and work with companies and folk in New England.” He pointed to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA, known as CUSMA in Canada) as a source of stability, since it shields a wide range of products—including agriculture, automobile products, textiles, machinery, and digital goods—from tariffs. “Pretty much most of our products are under the USMCA,” Sylvestre said. However, as CBC reported, the Trump administration has used national security exemptions to justify tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, even for goods that technically fall under USMCA’s protective umbrella. International trade lawyer Mark Warner explained that CUSMA’s national security exemption is unusual in that it allows countries to self-judge what constitutes a security concern, making it difficult for dispute panels to intervene. “It can’t be second-guessed by a dispute settlement panel,” Warner told CBC.
But not everyone agrees on whether these actions violate the spirit—or even the letter—of USMCA. Carlo Dade, international policy director at the University of Calgary’s school of public policy, argued that Trump’s national security claims are “pretty flimsy,” especially when citing issues like fentanyl trafficking, for which Canada is a minor source. “It’s a loophole that you could drive a tractor-trailer through,” Dade quipped. Still, he acknowledged that national security carve-outs are standard in most trade agreements.
The road to a lasting resolution remains bumpy. Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in late August, describing the talks as “constructive” but admitting, “We are not on the verge of having an agreement, but we are making progress.” Some experts, like Warner, predict that Canada may eventually have to accept a “tariff-rate quota” on steel, aluminum, and copper—meaning the U.S. would only apply duties after importing a certain volume. Legal challenges to Trump’s tariffs are also underway. In a recent case, an appeals court deemed Trump’s fentanyl-related tariffs unlawful but allowed them to remain in place pending further review.
Meanwhile, new concerns are cropping up. On August 29, 2025, Trump’s executive order ending the “de minimus” tariff exception for U.S. imports takes effect, meaning goods worth $800 or less that were previously exempt will now be taxed. BEA’s Boltik worries that Canada might retaliate by imposing tariffs on small-dollar imports from the U.S., potentially escalating the tit-for-tat measures yet again.
The trade war’s fallout isn’t limited to goods and businesses. Tourism from Canada to New Hampshire has dropped by around 30% in 2025, according to BEA Commissioner Taylor Caswell. Sylvestre attributes this to a “perfect storm” of economic anxiety, animosity toward the U.S., and fears about border hassles. Local business owners on New Hampshire’s Seacoast have noticed the absence, with beachside parking lots no longer filled with Canadian license plates. The downturn comes just as both regions were recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw the border largely closed.
Despite the obstacles, there’s a shared hope that the deep economic and cultural bonds between New Hampshire and Canada will endure. As Sylvestre put it, “I see this as one corridor. Even though it’s two countries, there are so many things that we’re doing together.”
In the months ahead, all eyes will be on negotiators in Washington and Ottawa as they attempt to steer this vital trading relationship back onto stable ground. For now, the only certainty is uncertainty—and the knowledge that, for New Hampshire and Canada alike, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
