In Tanzania, what should be a vibrant exercise in democracy has taken on the air of a coronation. As the country heads to the polls on October 29, 2025, incumbent President Samia Suluhu Hassan stands poised to secure her first elected mandate, but the absence of genuine opposition has cast a long shadow over the legitimacy and competitiveness of the process.
President Samia, who became Tanzania’s first female head of state following the death of President John Magufuli in 2021, was initially hailed as a reformer. Her four Rs policy—"reconciliation, resilience, reform and rebuilding"—reopened the country to foreign investors and restored relations with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Political analyst Mohammed Issa told the BBC, "She made a difference, the lost relationship between Tanzania and international organisations such as World Bank was restored." Her warmer, more conciliatory style was seen as a breath of fresh air after the authoritarian approach of her predecessor.
Yet, as the election approaches, the political space has dramatically shrunk. Reports from Freedom House show Tanzania’s status dropping from "partly free" in 2020 to "not free" last year, reflecting a wave of repression that has swept through the country. Abductions, killings, and the systematic targeting of government critics have become more frequent, with many observers arguing that the climate is even more stifling than under Magufuli. "Samia came in with a conciliatory tone, but now she has become bold and makes tough decisions that many did not expect from her," Issa commented. "She is now widely blamed for some things like abductions, killings, repression of opposition and other issues on security."
The main opposition party, Chadema, has been barred from contesting the presidency. Its leader, Tundu Lissu, is on trial for treason, accused by the government of inciting chaos with his "No Reforms, No Election" campaign. Lissu and his party have long argued that despite the rebranding of the electoral commission as the "Independent National Electoral Commission," the process remains under tight government control. Following his arrest in April, Chadema called for a boycott of the election, a stance echoed by his deputy, John Heche, who was also detained just last week. "Yes, rallies were allowed again, but today Chadema can't do its mandate because the promises were fake," Heche told the BBC before his arrest.
The second-largest opposition party, ACT-Wazalendo, has similarly been sidelined. Its presidential candidate, Luhaga Mpina, was disqualified twice by the electoral commission, most recently in September 2025 after a court battle failed to overturn the decision. This leaves only smaller parties like Chaumma and CUF in the race—parties that, according to historical data reported by DW, rarely capture more than 5% of the vote. As political analyst Luqman Maloto put it to DW, "In this election, the ruling CCM [Chama Cha Mapinduzi] is competing against less powerful parties. Looking at the campaign scenes, some of these parties aren't even capable of holding rallies. It's as if CCM is going unopposed."
The erosion of political competition has ignited a national debate. Khalifa Said, founder of independent media platform The Chanzo, told DW, "Never before in its 30 years of multiparty democracy has Tanzania witnessed such a situation. It's an unexpected and unusual situation in a multiparty system, one that deprives citizens of their right to elect people they want in public offices." The opposition’s absence is particularly stark compared to the 2015 election, when parties united under the Coalition for the People's Constitution and mounted a real challenge to CCM’s dominance. But that unity has since evaporated under the weight of rising political tensions and a restrictive electoral environment.
Despite the boycott calls and the threat of protests circulating on social media in response to Lissu’s call to "stop this election," most analysts expect Tanzanians will still turn out to vote. "The electoral process is now irreversible. Instead of stopping the election, Tanzanians will likely vote on October 29," Maloto explained. Yet, the likely outcome seems all but predetermined. CCM’s grip on the political structure remains ironclad, and the exclusion of meaningful opposition has left many citizens disillusioned. Godfrey Lusana, a resident of Dar es Salaam, told the BBC, "We do not have an election without a strong opposition. The electoral system is not independent. We already know who will win. I can't waste time to vote."
President Samia’s campaign has leaned heavily on her image as "Mama Samia," promising development, better infrastructure, and improved health and education services. Many women, particularly in rural areas, see her as a source of dignity and inspiration. "She brings dignity, we young women look up to her. We feel her presence as the president and that gives us confidence that we can be reliable to our communities now and in the future," first-time voter Queen Castoric from Tanga told the BBC. However, urban youth express more skepticism, citing persistent unemployment and the president’s silence on abductions and repression.
Within the ruling CCM itself, internal democracy appears to have been stifled. Political analyst Nicodemus Minde noted in a recent ISS report that "internal [CCM] party democracy has been stifled through an orchestrated move to make President Samia the sole candidate. While this has deepened divisions within the party, a façade of unity is being presented to the public." The mysterious abduction of senior party member Humphrey Polepole, who had criticized Samia’s automatic candidacy, has only deepened suspicions. There are even suggestions that Samia is now beholden to a powerful network of business tycoons and CCM backers known as Mtandao, a network her predecessor Magufuli reportedly resisted.
While the mainland election is marked by a lack of real competition, the situation in Zanzibar is notably different. The semi-autonomous archipelago is holding its own presidential and parliamentary elections, where ACT-Wazalendo’s Othman Masoud is putting up a fierce fight against CCM incumbent Hussein Mwinyi. Campaigns there have been peaceful, a welcome change from Zanzibar’s history of election-related violence. Masoud is campaigning for greater autonomy and against land grabbing and corruption, while Mwinyi is promising continuity and development.
The government’s sensitivity to voter turnout is evident. On October 25, 2025, The Citizen reported the arrest of a Lutheran pastor for allegedly inciting his congregation not to vote—a move highlighting the authorities’ determination to ensure a strong turnout, even as many citizens question the value of their participation in what feels like a foregone conclusion. The message from officials and pro-government outlets is clear: voting is not just a right, but a patriotic duty, with abstention equated to surrendering one’s voice and betraying the nation’s future.
As lawyer and activist Tito Magoti told the BBC, "We want a free Tanzania where anyone has the freedom to speak. The freedom of movement and the freedom to do anything they wish." Whether the outcome of this election will bring Tanzania closer to that vision—or push it further away—remains to be seen. For now, the country stands at a crossroads, with its democratic credentials under unprecedented scrutiny both at home and abroad.
