Scotland's political landscape was jolted this week as First Minister John Swinney reignited the debate over independence, urging the UK government to agree to a second referendum if the Scottish National Party (SNP) secures a majority in the 2026 Holyrood election. The call, delivered on September 4, 2025, in Edinburgh, marks the latest chapter in a constitutional saga that has dominated Scottish politics for more than a decade.
Mr. Swinney, addressing supporters and the press, made his intentions clear: "I would not be doing my duty were I not to offer people a very different choice," he declared, referencing the pivotal moment he believes Scotland now faces. He drew a direct line to the SNP's historic 2011 majority, which paved the way for the 2014 independence referendum—a vote that saw Scots reject independence by a 55-45% margin in what was then described as a "once in a generation" event, according to BBC and Sky News.
But Swinney contends that the generational argument has shifted. "By 2030, there will be one million young Scots eligible to vote who were too young in 2014. Some of them will not even have been born then. That seems like a generation to me," he insisted. For Swinney, the passage of time and the influx of new voters demand a renewed democratic process.
To bolster his case, the Scottish government released a new constitutional paper, Your Right To Decide, which urges the UK government to "make a clear commitment to respect the people of Scotland's right to decide their future." The paper reiterates the government's belief that Scottish parliamentary democracy should empower the people to call a referendum through their votes, echoing the precedent set in 2011. Constitution Secretary Angus Robertson added on BBC's Good Morning Scotland that a majority of pro-independence Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs)—regardless of party—would constitute a mandate for a new vote.
Yet, the path to another referendum is anything but straightforward. The UK government has repeatedly dismissed calls for a second vote, even after pro-independence majorities emerged in Holyrood in both 2016 and 2021. A UK government spokesperson told Sky News, "This is simply not a priority for Scots. The UK government's priority is delivering for people in Scotland. The Scottish government should be focused on working with us on our Plan for Change: to grow the economy, improve our public services, and put more money in people's pockets—that is what Scots want to see."
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was even more direct, predicting the SNP would not win a majority in 2026 and accusing Swinney of "distraction politics." During a visit to the BAE Systems shipyard in Glasgow, Starmer urged the first minister to shift his focus from constitutional wrangling to practical matters like jobs and public services. "Let's see him fix the health service and other public services, and let us work together on the jobs that we can win for Scotland," Starmer told BBC Scotland News. He also defended his immigration policies amid Swinney's criticism of "utterly chilling" language from Westminster politicians, particularly on immigration and refugees.
The independence debate has, perhaps inevitably, drawn in a wide range of political voices. Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay, speaking at First Minister's Questions (FMQs), accused Swinney of being "obsessed" with independence at the expense of "day job" issues. "He's desperately trying to get the focus off the SNP's dismal record of failure on the economy, schools, ferries, drugs, crime, health, everything else. So, this week he cynically focuses on independence and international affairs. Isn't it time he got back to the day job?" Findlay asked, as reported by Sky News and BBC.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar echoed these concerns, highlighting the NHS as the top issue on voters' minds and accusing Swinney of using independence to deflect from mounting waiting lists and health service woes. Meanwhile, Ross Greer, co-leader of the Scottish Greens, pressed for reforms to council tax debt collection and an end to tax breaks for billionaire-owned shooting estates.
Other challenges were raised during FMQs, including concerns about water shortages after one of the driest summers on record, and the impact of high numbers of asylum seekers in Glasgow—a situation Swinney blamed on Home Office policies. The first minister also expressed unease about the saltire flag being co-opted by far-right groups during anti-immigration protests, insisting, "Our saltire is a flag of welcome—and refugees are welcome here."
Opposition to a second referendum isn't limited to the Conservatives and Labour. Reform councillor Thomas Kerr described Swinney as "arrogantly out-of-touch," claiming, "The country is at breaking point, yet has-been Swinney would rather grandstand than put his own people first." Even within the SNP, some argue for a more radical approach to independence, while political opponents criticize the government's ongoing publication of constitutional papers as a waste of resources.
Legal obstacles remain formidable. In 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish government cannot hold an independence referendum without Westminster's consent. Since then, the Scottish government has published over a dozen papers on the constitution, yet support for independence has hovered around 50% in opinion polls, with the SNP's popularity declining from its highs under former leader Nicola Sturgeon. According to polling expert Sir John Curtice, recent surveys—such as a March 2025 YouGov tracker—show 54% of Scots would vote No in another referendum, with 46% in favor of Yes, a slight shift but not a dramatic change from the 2014 result.
Despite the obstacles, Swinney remains undeterred. He insists the precedent of 2011 and 2014 is clear: if the SNP secures a majority in 2026, the UK government should "have no answer to escaping from the precedent that was established in 2011." The SNP is set to finalize its independence strategy at a party conference next month, as the constitutional debate is poised to dominate Scottish politics well into the next election cycle.
As the arguments swirl, the question of Scotland's future remains as open—and as contentious—as ever. Whether the 2026 election will deliver the clear mandate Swinney seeks, or reinforce the status quo, only time and the voters will tell. For now, the push for a second referendum is back at the center of Scotland's political conversation, with every major party staking out its ground in a debate that shows no sign of abating.
