In a twist few political observers saw coming, Republican Steve Hilton has surged to the front of the pack in the 2026 California governor’s race, according to a series of recent polls that have rattled the state’s political establishment and injected a dose of unpredictability into what is usually a reliably Democratic contest.
The latest Emerson College poll, conducted October 20 and 21, 2025, shows Hilton narrowly leading the crowded field with 16% support among likely voters. Just behind him is Democrat Katie Porter, a former U.S. Representative, with 15%. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, also a Republican, claims third place at 11%, while Democrats Xavier Becerra and Antonio Villaraigosa tie for fourth at 5% each. The poll, which surveyed 900 likely California voters, carries a margin of error of approximately 3.2 percentage points. These numbers, reported by Newsweek and the Orange County Register, highlight a race that remains wide open, with a remarkable 39% of voters still undecided.
For a state that has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s reelection in 2006, Hilton’s rise is nothing short of remarkable. Hilton, a former Fox News host and policy analyst who began his political career in the United Kingdom, has cast himself as a champion for change, emphasizing the need for political balance after what he calls "15 years of one-party rule." In a statement to Newsweek, Hilton declared, “I love this state so much and it breaks my heart to see the pain and struggle for regular working people after 15 years of one-party rule. Everyone can see we need change, and some political balance in California.”
Hilton’s lead, while slim and within the poll’s margin of error, is significant in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by a wide margin. The poll also comes at a time when Governor Gavin Newsom’s approval rating has climbed to 48%—its highest point in the past year—but his controversial proposal to gerrymander California’s congressional districts has drawn support from 57% of voters, as reported by Breitbart News. This move, which would override the state’s constitutional requirement for an independent redistricting commission, has added to the political drama surrounding the governor’s mansion.
Porter, meanwhile, has seen her fortunes decline in recent months. Once the clear Democratic frontrunner, Porter has been hit by a series of damaging viral videos that have raised questions about her temperament and campaign strategy. In early October, a clip from a CBS News California Investigates interview with correspondent Julie Watts went viral, showing Porter growing visibly frustrated with follow-up questions about her need for support from Trump voters. At one point, she threatened to end the interview, saying, “I don’t want to keep doing this, I’m going to call it.” The incident sparked significant backlash online, and, as Politico reported, was followed by the resurfacing of a 2021 video where Porter is seen cursing at a staffer during a video call with then-Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. Porter later acknowledged, “I could have handled things better,” and vowed to “continue to try to hold myself to do better.”
The fallout from these incidents has been swift. According to the latest polling, Porter’s support among independent voters dropped from 16% in September to 11% in October. Her overall favorability rating stands at 26%, with 35% of respondents expressing an unfavorable view, and 39% unsure or unfamiliar with her, according to the Orange County Register. By comparison, Hilton’s favorability is at 21%, with only 12% holding an unfavorable view and a striking 68% either unsure or unfamiliar with him. This high level of unfamiliarity suggests that the race remains fluid and that both leading candidates have significant room to define themselves in the months ahead.
Despite the setbacks, Porter’s campaign remains defiant. Peter Opitz, her spokesperson, told Newsweek, “Katie is the experienced, battle-tested fighter that Californians want as their next Governor. Poll after poll shows Katie leading her Democratic opponents by double digits, driven by grassroots supporters who know that she will stand up to Donald Trump’s attacks on California and bring down costs across the state. Katie remains focused on sharing her message with voters in every part and pocket of California.”
Yet, the numbers tell a more complicated story. The Democratic field remains crowded, but aside from Porter, no other Democrat is polling in double digits. Both Villaraigosa and Becerra trail in single digits, and speculation is mounting that a more prominent Democrat could enter the race. Senator Alex Padilla, who currently serves in the U.S. Senate, is widely rumored to be considering a bid. Padilla boasts the highest favorability rating among the top contenders at 40%, and a recent CBS/YouGov poll indicated that 38% of likely voters are considering him for governor. For comparison, only 27% said the same for Porter, with Becerra and Villaraigosa at 22% and 21%, respectively.
The state’s unique “jungle primary” system, where all candidates compete on a single ballot regardless of party and the top two advance to the general election, adds another layer of complexity. Winning the first round is no guarantee of ultimate victory, especially with such a large field and so many undecided voters. As Newsweek notes, most analysts still believe a Democrat is likely to win the governor’s mansion in deep-blue California, but Hilton’s unexpected lead has upended assumptions and could entice new, heavyweight candidates into the fray.
Polling trends also show just how volatile the race has become. The August 2025 Emerson poll had Porter in the lead at 18%, with Hilton at 12%. Since then, Porter has dropped three points while Hilton has climbed four, reflecting both the impact of recent controversies and Hilton’s increased visibility. A Zogby Strategies poll from early September found Hilton with 29% support to Porter’s 23%, though a substantial 23% of voters remained undecided at that time.
For now, the political landscape remains in flux. The California primary is set for June 2, 2026, and the general election will follow on November 3. With nearly four out of ten voters still undecided and the prospect of new candidates entering the race, the contest for California’s highest office promises to remain unpredictable and fiercely contested. Both leading campaigns are working overtime to define their candidates and sway the large swath of voters who have yet to make up their minds. As the months tick down, all eyes will be on the Golden State to see if this year’s political earthquake will translate into a historic upset—or if the state’s Democratic roots will ultimately prove too deep to unseat.
