With the NFL regular season barreling toward its dramatic conclusion, the 2025 MVP race has become one of the most tightly contested in recent memory. As Week 17 wrapped up, all eyes turned to two quarterbacks whose performances have electrified fans and analysts alike: Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams and Drake Maye of the New England Patriots. The debate over who deserves the coveted award has reached a fever pitch, with each player making a compelling case in the season’s penultimate week.
Let’s set the stage. Heading into Week 17, Stafford was the odds-on favorite to win MVP, with major sportsbooks giving him -225 odds. Hot on his heels, though, was Maye at +180, whose breakout sophomore campaign has put him in the thick of the conversation. Other names, like Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+10000) and Jacksonville Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence (+15000), remained mathematically alive but were considered long shots after recent performances.
Sunday’s action saw Maye deliver a performance for the ages. Facing the New York Jets, Maye didn’t just put up big numbers—he orchestrated what TruMedia has ranked as the single best quarterback performance since 2000, a data set encompassing 13,687 QB outings. The Patriots’ signal-caller completed 19 of 21 passes for 256 yards and a career-high five touchdowns, with only two incompletions. If that wasn’t enough, he added 22 rushing yards on three carries, and his efficiency was off the charts: Maye averaged 1.28 expected points added (EPA) per pass play, the highest in the database.
“Don’t let the sizzle reel of dominance against the league’s worst team take away from the fact that Maye’s sophomore season has been sensational,” reported FOX Sports. Indeed, Maye’s performance was more than just gaudy stats against a struggling defense. He delivered touchdown passes on fourth-and-goal and third-and-long, and even scrambled for an 11-yard gain on fourth-and-3. The Patriots rolled to a 42-10 victory, clinching the AFC East title for the first time since 2019 and snapping the Bills’ five-year reign atop the division.
Maye’s heroics didn’t go unnoticed among the league’s observers. According to Mike Sando of The Athletic, “Drake Maye’s statistical line in the Patriots’ 42-10 victory over the Jets ranks first on a list of 13,687 QB performances since 2000, counting playoffs.” It’s hard to overstate just how rare and impressive such a feat is, especially for a second-year quarterback leading his team into the postseason.
While Maye was busy rewriting the record books, Stafford prepared for a crucial Monday Night Football showdown against the Atlanta Falcons. The Rams, still in the hunt for playoff seeding, needed a win to improve their postseason outlook and potentially move up to the fifth seed in the NFC. The stakes were high—not only for the team but for Stafford’s MVP candidacy, especially with Maye’s star rising fast.
But under the bright lights in Atlanta, Stafford stumbled. After a scoreless first half, the veteran quarterback nearly led the Rams back from a 21-point deficit. However, his final stat line told a more sobering story: 22 completions on 38 attempts for 269 yards, two touchdowns, and three costly interceptions—one of which was returned for a touchdown. For a player who had thrown just five picks all season, nearly matching that total in a single game was a jarring turn.
Despite the disappointing 27-24 loss to the 7-9 Falcons, Stafford’s season-long body of work remains strong. He leads the league in touchdown passes (40) and has anchored the Rams’ offense with historic consistency. “Matt Stafford is not only the MVP this year, he’s a HALL OF FAMER!” declared NFL on CBS, highlighting the respect Stafford commands across the league. Still, Monday’s performance raised questions about whether he can hold off Maye’s late surge in the final week.
Elsewhere in the MVP conversation, other contenders saw their hopes fade. Josh Allen, last year’s MVP, struggled in a rain-soaked 13-12 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, finishing with 262 passing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and a failed two-point conversion that sealed Buffalo’s defeat. The loss handed the AFC East title to New England, ending the Bills’ half-decade atop the division. Trevor Lawrence, meanwhile, led the Jaguars to a 23-17 win over the Carolina Panthers, throwing for 263 yards and adding two rushing scores, but his recent hot streak cooled with an interception and modest passing numbers.
Chicago Bears rookie Caleb Williams also made headlines with a season-high 330 yards and two touchdowns in a 42-38 shootout loss to the San Francisco 49ers. While Williams’ December play has been impressive, it’s not enough to vault him into the heart of the MVP debate this late in the season.
With only one week remaining, the race between Stafford and Maye is closer than ever. If Stafford can rebound in the Rams’ season finale against the Arizona Cardinals and finish with a flourish, he could cement his place in NFL history with his first MVP award. On the other hand, if Maye maintains his torrid pace and the Patriots secure the AFC’s top seed, he might just pull off one of the most remarkable MVP coups in recent memory.
But don’t expect any official word just yet. The NFL MVP is determined based on regular-season performance, but the winner won’t be announced until the NFL Honors ceremony on February 5, 2026. That event, held at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco during Super Bowl week, will finally put an end to the speculation and crown this year’s Most Valuable Player.
So, who has the edge? The odds still slightly favor Stafford, but Maye’s Week 17 explosion has made this a photo finish. With both quarterbacks set for pivotal games in Week 18, fans and voters alike will be watching every snap, every throw, and every touchdown with bated breath. One thing’s for sure: this MVP race is anything but over, and the drama is only just beginning to unfold.
As the league’s brightest stars prepare for their final auditions, the NFL world waits to see who will rise to the occasion and etch their name into the annals of football greatness. The stage is set, the stakes couldn’t be higher, and the answer will have to wait until the lights shine brightest in San Francisco.
