Spending on special educational needs and disabilities (Send) in England is on a trajectory to outpace the Ministry of Justice’s entire day-to-day budget by 2029, according to a stark warning issued by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) this week. The think tank’s latest analysis paints a picture of soaring costs, mounting pressures on local authorities, and a system struggling to deliver for the children and young people it is meant to support.
The IFS forecasts that, unless significant reforms are enacted, combined expenditure on education, health and care plans (EHCPs) and a cash benefit for disabled children could reach £21 billion by the end of the current parliamentary term. That figure is more than double the real-terms spending recorded in 2016—a dramatic escalation that has left policymakers, educators, and families searching for solutions. As reported by BBC, the government is already spending £12 billion this year on supporting those with Send, a sum that has risen by 66% over the last decade. If trends continue, the government will face an extra £3 billion a year in Send spending by 2029.
Much of the projected increase is being driven by a surge in the number of children and young people with EHCPs. The IFS estimates there will be an additional 220,000 pupils with these plans by 2029. Currently, one in five pupils in England—about 1.7 million children—receive some form of special educational needs support at school. Of these, 482,000, or 5.3% of all pupils, receive the higher level of support from individual EHCPs, which legally obligate councils to provide and pay for tailored assistance.
Darcey Snape, a research economist at the IFS and author of the report, highlighted the scale of the challenge: “An increasingly large share of young people are getting targeted educational and cash support to help them with special educational needs or disabilities. There is worryingly little evidence on what forms of support deliver the best outcomes for these young people now and into the future. A clear risk is that the big increases in spending on children will be followed by higher spending on young adults.”
The financial strain is being felt acutely by local authorities, many of which have been forced into hundreds of millions of pounds of debt to keep up with the rising costs of Send support. According to BBC, the total debt is forecast to reach £5 billion next year. A government agreement has so far allowed councils to keep these deficits off their official books, but there are growing calls for the debt to be wiped entirely. Amanda Hopgood of the Local Government Association argued that such a move would "put councils on a stable financial footing," while also calling for legislative changes to address "outdated legislation that leaves councils facing rising and unsustainable costs."
The cost of educating a child with Send varies dramatically depending on the setting. The average annual cost of a place at a state special school is £23,900, while independent special schools can cost as much as £61,500 per year. The government has signaled its intention to encourage more early intervention and to keep more Send pupils in mainstream education, which is generally less expensive. However, as Angela Mawer—grandmother and legal guardian to seven-year-old Colby—shared with BBC, finding appropriate support in mainstream settings can feel like "winning the lottery." She described her relief at securing a place for Colby in a specially resourced unit at Littlecoates Primary Academy in Grimsby, but lamented, "It's really sad that I should have to feel like that. There isn't enough provision for children like Colby."
Angela is now searching for a suitable specialist school for Colby as he prepares to move on. The Launchpad unit at Littlecoates, which provides dedicated support within a mainstream environment, has been running for three years and plans to expand by 100 places across North East Lincolnshire. The unit’s aim is to help children adjust to mainstream classes with short-term specialist support. For some, like seven-year-old Finley, the approach has paid off. His mother Claire told BBC, “Getting to the point where Finley has made all this progress, I could burst with pride.” Yet, Claire also voiced concerns about the broader system, saying, “The government needs to put a lot of work into ensuring mainstream settings can meet children's needs. I don't feel like mainstream staff have got the right training to be able to deal with some of the special needs of the children.”
Kate Cowdroy, who runs Launchpad, echoed these sentiments, noting, “The reality is a lot of schools haven't got funding like this available to them. Some of the children they're putting in mainstream classrooms, they're setting them up to fail on a daily basis.”
Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, was blunt in his assessment: “The truly shocking thing is that despite this increase in spending, we are still left with a system that is failing to cope with the needs of these children and young people. Schools do not have sufficient funding and resources, assessments are commonly delayed, and families are left desperate and frustrated by the gaps in the system.”
The IFS report also highlighted that the rise in both EHCPs and claims for the child disability living allowance (CDLA)—which is forecast to hit £6 billion by 2029—has been significantly driven by increased diagnoses of autism and ADHD. Currently, one in 20 (5.2%) pupils under 16 have an EHCP, nearly double the proportion from a decade ago. Similarly, one in 14 (7.2%) children now receive CDLA, up from 3.4% ten years prior. Worryingly, the IFS found that children who receive both forms of support often face poorer outcomes as adults: half of 15-year-olds who received both in 2014 were not in education, employment, or training at age 22, and three in four were receiving adult disability benefits.
Munira Wilson, education spokesperson for the Liberal Democrats, described the situation as "heartbreaking," saying, "Years of underfunding have pushed councils to the brink, leaving them saddled with crippling debts to provide Send support that only papers over the cracks. It's heartbreaking to think that vulnerable young people are being set up to fail, with the current system leading to poorer outcomes for Send children further down the line." The party has called for a profit cap on private providers, better early identification, and increased state-funded special capacity.
The government, for its part, maintains that it has "not hesitated to take action" to reform the Send system. A spokesperson said, “We’ve not hesitated to take action and reform the system—including through improved training for teachers and investing £740 million to help create 10,000 more specialist school places, reassuring parents that support will be available as routine at the earliest stage.” Education minister Georgia Gould has pledged that "there will always be a legal right to additional support," and promised that children, families, and teachers will be "at the forefront" of upcoming reforms, which are expected to be set out in a Schools White Paper later this year.
With costs rising, outcomes for children in question, and the future of the system hanging in the balance, the debate over Send funding and reform is likely to remain front and center in the coming months. The choices made now will shape not just budgets, but the life chances of thousands of England’s most vulnerable young people.
