As Virginia’s gubernatorial race barrels toward the November 4, 2025, finish line, the contest between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears has tightened into a virtual dead heat, according to a flurry of new polling and a swirl of controversy that’s upending the campaign’s final weeks.
The most recent Trafalgar Group poll, conducted between October 8 and 10 and released on October 13, shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by a razor-thin margin—47.7% to 45.1%—among more than 1,000 likely voters. With a margin of error of 2.9%, the Democrat’s advantage is statistically negligible, making the race too close to call. Notably, 5.5% of voters remain undecided, a bloc large enough to swing the election either way as early voting, which began September 19, continues through November 1.
This nail-biter of a race stands in stark contrast to polling from just a month earlier. A Washington Post survey in late September put Spanberger ahead by 12 points, and an Emerson College poll from the same period showed her up by 10. But since then, a political bombshell has dropped—a series of violent text messages sent by Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones, revealed on October 3, has reverberated across the ballot, injecting fresh uncertainty into the governor’s contest.
Jones, who is running against Republican incumbent Jason Miyares for attorney general, admitted to sending texts in 2022 to Republican Delegate Carrie Coyner. In them, he entertained a hypothetical about shooting former Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert, writing, “Three people, two bullets, Gilbert, Hitler, and Pol Pot. Gilbert gets two bullets to the head.” After a phone call, Coyner texted Jones, “You were talking about hoping Jennifer Gilbert’s children would die.” Jones replied, “Yes, I’ve told you this before. Only when people feel pain personally do they move on policy.”
The fallout was immediate and severe. According to Trafalgar’s chief pollster Robert Cahaly, “Sixty percent of the people said it was having a significant to some impact” on the governor’s race, as reported by 7News. Republicans have seized on the scandal, seeking to tie Spanberger to Jones and arguing that her continued support for the Democratic ticket reflects poorly on her judgment.
The controversy took center stage during a debate between Spanberger and Earle-Sears held within the week before October 13. Earle-Sears pressed Spanberger: “What if he said it about your two children? Your three children? Is that when you would say he should get out of the race, Abigail? You’re running to be governor.” In response, Spanberger condemned Jones’ words but stopped short of calling for his withdrawal. “I am running for governor, I am accountable for the words that I say or the acts that I take, for the policies that I have put out,” she said at the debate. She added, “I do not support Jones’ language and find it abhorrent.”
Spanberger’s stance has drawn fire from multiple directions. The national law enforcement group We Back Blue publicly called on the Virginia Police Benevolent Association (PBA) to withdraw its endorsement of Spanberger, citing her refusal to call for Jones to exit the race. “From a law enforcement and public safety perception, I don’t think she’s right for the state, and I think the PBA should, at a minimum, just withdraw their endorsement and let the election speak for itself,” said Robert O’Donnell with We Back Blue, according to 7News.
Some rank-and-file police officers, echoing O’Donnell’s criticism, have reportedly canceled their PBA memberships over the endorsement. Stephen Selby, a retired Fairfax County police officer, told 7News, “The rank and file definitely support Winsome Sears for governor, because Abigail Spanberger is going to end all of the cooperation and everything good that the Governor has done for law enforcement. Everybody I’ve talked to in the rank and file are quite surprised at the endorsement.”
Despite this internal dissent, the Virginia PBA has stood firm. In a statement provided to 7News, the association said, “The Virginia PBA stands by its endorsement decisions, which are made through a fair, structured process focused on a candidate’s policies and commitment to law enforcement, not political convenience. Our statement on Jay Jones made clear that we condemn all violent or divisive rhetoric, regardless of party, and that Jones should not take office if elected.”
The attorney general’s race, meanwhile, has shifted sharply in the wake of the revelations. The same Trafalgar poll found Republican incumbent Jason Miyares leading Jones by nearly six points, 48.9% to 43.1%. That margin is far more comfortable than the razor-thin gap in the governor’s race and suggests that the scandal has taken a significant toll on Jones’ standing.
The down-ballot effects of the Jones controversy may extend further. In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Sen. Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid by less than a point—46.8% to 45.9%—according to Trafalgar. With such slim margins, voter turnout and late-breaking developments could prove decisive across the board.
National observers are watching Virginia closely, not just for its own sake but as a bellwether for the broader political climate. As Newsweek reported, off-year elections like this one often see the party out of power in the White House making gains—a dynamic that has Democrats on edge, even as forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball continue to rate Virginia as “Likely Democratic.”
Republicans, for their part, are hoping that the late-breaking scandal and tightening polls will energize their base and put them within striking distance statewide. Senator Ted Cruz, for example, responded to the Trafalgar poll on social media by declaring a “Massive shift in momentum.”
Democrats, meanwhile, are working to keep their coalition together. Spanberger and her allies have emphasized the state’s blue lean and pointed to President Donald Trump’s continued unpopularity in Virginia as reasons for optimism. But the specter of low turnout—a perennial feature of off-year elections—looms large, and the party is pulling out all the stops to activate its voters before early voting ends on November 1.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, the outcome remains uncertain. Both sides are pouring resources into get-out-the-vote efforts, and the fate of the governor’s mansion could hinge on a handful of undecided voters—and on how Virginians ultimately weigh the impact of a controversy that has dominated headlines and debates alike.
With just weeks to go, all eyes are on Virginia, where the governor’s race has become a test of political resilience, party loyalty, and the power of a single scandal to reshape an election.
