The trade war between the United States and China has cast a long shadow over America’s heartland, with soybean farmers bearing the brunt of the escalating economic conflict. On Tuesday, October 14, 2025, a flurry of political statements, economic data, and farmer testimonies painted a vivid picture of a sector under siege, as both national and local leaders weighed in on the crisis that shows no signs of abating.
Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota did not mince words during a high-profile meeting with Democratic National Committee officials, U.S. Representative Sharice Davids of Kansas, and Illinois farmer John Bartman. According to reporting from multiple outlets, Walz directly criticized President Donald Trump’s handling of the trade standoff, declaring, “President Donald Trump’s ego has gotten in the way, putting America second and abandoning America’s farmers.” Walz underscored the severity of the situation, noting that family farms are going bankrupt at the fastest pace in five years and that farm debt is projected to hit a record high of nearly $592 billion in 2025.
China’s role in this agricultural drama is impossible to ignore. The world’s largest soybean importer, China purchased 27 million metric tons of American soybeans in 2024, valued at nearly $12.8 billion. However, since May 2025, China has not bought a single American soybean, a move widely seen as retaliation for U.S. tariffs. In a Truth Social post, President Trump lashed out, accusing China of committing an “Economically Hostile Act” by “purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers.” Trump announced his administration was considering terminating business with China related to cooking oil and “other elements of Trade” as a form of retribution, arguing, “As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don’t need to purchase it from China.”
The stakes are high for soybean farmers in states like Oklahoma, Minnesota, Missouri, and Illinois. Soybeans are a major cash crop in Oklahoma, contributing about $76 million annually to the state’s economy, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 2024 State Agriculture Overview. Brent Rendel, a farmer and board member of the Oklahoma Soybean Board, shared the reality on the ground: “We’re optimistic that we are going to get through this. The reality is it’s tight. The industry—not just the farmer side, but the supplier side as well—is also feeling those same struggles.” Rendel highlighted how Oklahoma and the U.S. produce more wheat, corn, and soy than they can consume domestically, making export markets like China essential.
But with China turning to South American suppliers, especially Brazil and Argentina, American farmers have been forced to seek new markets or find alternative uses for their crops. The Goodyear tire plant in Lawton, Oklahoma, for example, uses soybean oil in some of its tire lines—a small but noteworthy example of expanding domestic demand. Still, as Rendel pointed out, “To say that if we don’t export, that just makes more for us isn’t an answer. All of the acres got planted under the assumption that we would find a home not only for our own domestic use but for our international customers as well.”
On the national stage, the Trump administration has floated the idea of a multibillion-dollar aid package to support struggling soybean farmers. The figure has ranged from $10 billion to $20 billion, with some of the money raised by tariffs earmarked for this purpose. Yet, the reception among farmers has been lukewarm at best. John Bartman, a corn and soybean farmer from Illinois, was blunt: “A bailout is like putting a Band-Aid on a bullet wound. And they don’t work.” His sentiment was echoed by others, including Brad Arnold, a multigenerational soybean farmer in southwestern Missouri, who told FOX Business, “China’s halt on U.S. soybean purchases has huge impacts on our business and our bottom line.”
Scott Gerlt, chief economist for the American Soybean Association (ASA), explained the longer-term risks: “Having dependable trading partners is better in the long run. Trade aid can get farmers through short-term, help keep them in business and get to the next year. But the problem is, if we’re not in the markets now, that’s just a further signal to South America to keep expanding.” Gerlt’s warning is already playing out. On the same day President Trump announced a $20 billion bailout for Argentina’s economy, Argentina suspended export taxes, making its soybeans even more attractive to Chinese buyers. Hours later, Argentina sold 20 shiploads of soybeans to China.
The shifting global landscape has left American farmers in a precarious position. Data from the ASA shows that China imported 61% of the world’s traded soybean supplies over the last five marketing years. Historically, the U.S. supplied an average of 28% of its crop to China before the 2018 trade war. That figure plummeted to 11% in the 2018-19 crop year, rebounded to 31% in 2020-21, but fell again to 22% in 2023-24. With each swing of the pendulum, American producers have been forced to adapt—sometimes by storing unsold beans, waiting for prices to recover, or by lobbying for more stable trade policy.
Politics, as ever, are deeply intertwined with economics. U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids, who sits on the House Committee on Agriculture, urged her party to spend more time in rural communities. “We also need to send the message to the president that these chaotic tariffs, this reckless approach, this whiplash that people are feeling, is having real consequences,” Davids said during Tuesday’s call.
Meanwhile, market volatility has become the norm. After President Trump’s latest social media salvo, the S&P 500 stock index fell, ending the day in the red following a volatile session. His threat to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025, only added fuel to the fire. Yet, in a characteristic reversal, Trump later attempted to calm the markets, writing, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!”
As the harvest season unfolds, the uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on farmers. Brent Rendel, reflecting on his family’s farm established in 1893, offered a note of resilience: “Just like soybeans add resilience to Oklahoma agriculture, I try to build that same resilience into my own farms and hope that other farmers do as well.” Still, as the battle over soybeans rages on, the question remains: how long can America’s farmers weather this storm, and will the markets they’ve spent decades building ever return?
For now, the answers are as unsettled as the markets themselves, but one thing is clear—America’s soybean farmers are caught in the crossfire of a trade war with no easy end in sight.
