In the heart of Johannesburg, the imposing Inkosi Albert Luthuli House stands as a symbol of the African National Congress’s (ANC) long and complicated legacy. For decades, the ANC has been synonymous with South Africa’s liberation, democracy, and the hope of a better future. But as of August 22, 2025, the country finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with the very real prospect of a future where the ANC no longer dominates the political landscape.
The 2024 general elections marked a seismic shift in South African politics. For the first time since the dawn of democracy in 1994, the ANC’s share of the national vote dipped below 50%. This outcome didn’t just signal a loss of dominance; it shattered the sense of inevitability that had long surrounded the party’s rule. According to Independent Newspapers, this moment represented both a symbolic and material turning point, thrusting the nation into uncharted territory.
The consequences of this shift have been immediate and profound. South Africa now faces the likelihood of governance by fragile coalitions, a prospect that leaves many citizens uneasy. Municipal coalitions in major metros like Johannesburg and Tshwane have already provided a cautionary tale: chaos, infighting, instability, and a lack of continuity have plagued these local governments, often at the expense of the very people they’re meant to serve. As one commentator put it in Independent Newspapers, “The end of ANC dominance may feel inevitable, even necessary, but I fear we have not sufficiently reckoned with what comes next.”
Discontent with the ANC is hardly unfounded. The party has been dogged by allegations of corruption, complacency, and internal decay. Service delivery has stagnated, unemployment remains stubbornly high, and corruption has become a fixture of political life. Yet, for many, the ANC still carries the weight of history as the party that led the liberation struggle and shaped the constitutional framework of modern South Africa. The uncertainty now is not just about who will lead, but about what kind of leadership, vision, and stability will replace the ANC’s imperfect, yet central, role.
This uncertainty is compounded by broader questions about the state of the nation itself. Is South Africa a failed state, or is it merely fragile? This debate has become increasingly urgent in recent months, with voices from across the spectrum weighing in. According to BizNews, Busi Mavuso, CEO of Business Leadership South Africa, warned, “Our fortunes as businesses are tied to those of government. If the government fails, the country fails. If the country fails, business fails. This is not sentiment, it is economic reality.” Her comments reflect the deep interdependence between government and the private sector, especially as businesses are forced to shoulder the burden of failing state functions.
The signals of state fragility are hard to ignore. Over the past few years, South Africa has experienced failures in basic service delivery, economic stagnation, a loss of state control over critical services like the police, and a marked increase in social unrest and political instability. The KwaZulu-Natal riots of 2021, rolling blackouts (load-shedding), the degradation of national infrastructure, and the capture of law enforcement institutions all contribute to a sense of crisis. Economist Dawie Roodt has argued that South Africa is “a failing state which is breaking its compact with its citizens,” particularly when it comes to safety and security. He cited personal experiences with violent crime as evidence of the state’s inability to protect its people.
Yet, despite these challenges, South Africa does not neatly fit the definition of a failed state. As BizNews explains, academic definitions of state failure emphasize the inability to project authority, deliver basic services, and maintain legitimacy. By these measures, South Africa still functions: it maintains authority over its territory, delivers welfare payments to a third of its population, and collects taxes from the formal economy. The Crisis States Research Centre at the London School of Economics describes South Africa as a “fragile state”—one that is particularly vulnerable to crisis and susceptible to internal and external shocks.
Public opinion, however, paints a more pessimistic picture. Surveys conducted by the Gauteng City Region Observatory show a dramatic shift in perception over the past decade. In 2015/16, most Gauteng residents disagreed with the notion that South Africa was a failed state. By 2023/24, that sentiment had flipped: 57% of respondents across all race groups agreed that the country was a failed state, with dissatisfaction most acute among coloured residents and least among Indian or Asian residents. This growing sense of disillusionment underscores the urgency of the current moment.
Not everyone shares this bleak outlook. Some experts, including Old Mutual chief economist Johann Els and political analyst Prince Mashele (as reported in Daily News), argue that South Africa is neither failed nor failing. Mashele points to the peaceful, gradual weakening of the ANC’s electoral dominance as evidence of institutional resilience. “We’re moving in the right direction,” Els said, noting that key economic indicators, institutional strength, and continued foreign investment suggest a country in transition rather than collapse. On the Fragile States Index published by the Fund for Peace, South Africa ranks 80th out of 179—a position that warrants an “elevated warning” but falls short of “high alert.”
In practice, South Africans are not waiting for government alone to address these challenges. Across the country, private citizens and businesses are stepping in to fill the gaps left by a faltering state. From infrastructure repairs to social welfare initiatives, these grassroots efforts reflect a determination to “help save the country,” as BizNews describes. Think tanks like the Institute of Race Relations have published extensive policy recommendations, offering roadmaps for growth, governance reform, and economic revitalization. These initiatives, while not a panacea, demonstrate a collective will to confront the nation’s problems head-on.
Still, the risks are real. As BizNews cautions, a takeover by corrupt political factions, poorly conceived policy initiatives, or gross misuse of state power could easily tip the balance toward outright failure. The ANC’s own leadership has acknowledged the gravity of the situation. Senior officials Malusi Gigaba and Senzo Mchunu have publicly warned that the party is “failing” and “on the brink of collapse,” prompting threats of disciplinary action from within the party ranks. The stakes, then, are not just about who governs, but about the very fabric of South African democracy.
As the country stands at this pivotal juncture, the choices made in the coming months and years will determine whether South Africa can navigate its fragility and crisis to emerge stronger, or whether it will slide further into dysfunction. The challenge is not merely to reject what has failed, but to build something better in its place—a task that demands vision, ethical leadership, and a renewed commitment to democratic values. If South Africans can rise to meet this challenge, there is every reason to believe that the nation’s best days still lie ahead.
