Scotland’s political scene is bracing for a dramatic debate next month as the Scottish National Party (SNP) prepares to gather in Aberdeen for its annual conference. At the heart of the agenda: a grassroots push to set a firm date for Scottish independence, dubbed by supporters as "independence day," with May 1, 2027, proposed as the moment Scotland would formally break from the United Kingdom—regardless of whether negotiations with Westminster have concluded.
This bold proposal comes after months of internal tension within the SNP, pitting local branches and activists eager for decisive action against the party leadership’s more cautious approach. According to The Herald, the original motion—backed by 43 local branches—argued that a majority of list votes for pro-independence parties in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections should serve as a mandate to begin independence negotiations with the UK Government. However, the party’s conference committee rejected this motion, sparking frustration among the grassroots.
Undeterred, activists from branches in Oban and Lorn, Tweeddale, and Helensburgh drafted a revised amendment. This new plan, distributed to 41 local branches and reportedly met with favorable responses, goes further than before. It not only reiterates the October 2023 party policy—considering the 2026 election a de facto referendum on independence—but also sets a hard deadline for independence itself. Under the subheading "Dissolution Day," the amendment states: "Conference resolves that the Union will be dissolved no later than 1 May 2027 regardless of whether the rest of the UK government has entered and concluded negotiations to end the Union."
One member backing the plan told The Herald, "There has been an indication from the conference committee that the substance behind our amendment will be debated." The member described the initial reaction to the leadership’s decision to block the grassroots proposal as one of "annoyance and frustration," adding that recent signals from the committee suggest a more "generous attitude" toward allowing amendments. "That would be a major step forward," the member said.
The revised amendment draws on recent party history, affirming: "Conference notes that it is current Party Policy as agreed at the October 2023 Conference that—consideration should be given to fighting the next Scottish Parliament election in 2026 as a de facto referendum on independence; and that a majority at that election for the SNP—or the SNP and any other party with which we have reached a pro-independence agreement—will be considered a mandate to negotiate independence."
The proposal’s timeline is ambitious. If adopted, it would see Scotland become independent less than a year after the Holyrood election scheduled for May 7, 2026—a much shorter timeframe than senior SNP politicians have previously suggested. The amendment acknowledges the practical difficulties, stating: "Hopefully the rest of the UK government will cooperate in negotiating a parting of the ways but that is not guaranteed, and the timescale involved in agreement may drag on to the possible detriment of the development of an independent Scotland." Yet, the plan is clear: come what may, the Union would be dissolved by May 1, 2027.
Another amendment, drafted by the party’s Newington branch, takes a slightly different tack. While it agrees with First Minister John Swinney’s resolution that an SNP majority in 2026 would be a mandate for a new independence referendum, it argues that since the 2014 referendum, attempts to secure a Section 30 order from Westminster to hold a new vote have failed. It proposes that a new SNP government should legislate to give Holyrood the power to decide on constitutional matters, including the right to hold referendums on increased powers or independence. However, the Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling that constitutional matters are reserved to Westminster casts doubt on the legal viability of such a bill.
The debate over the path to independence is not new. Former First Minister Alex Salmond, writing in The National in 2016, reflected on what might have been had the 2014 independence referendum yielded a Yes vote. "It could all have been so different. If Scotland had voted Yes to independence on 18 September 2014, 24 March is the day that it would officially have embraced its new status as a sovereign country of its own. The United Kingdom as we know it would have been no more," Salmond wrote. His timeline—eighteen months from referendum to independence—was already seen as ambitious, making the current grassroots proposal’s less-than-a-year window even more striking.
The party leadership, for its part, is treading carefully. First Minister John Swinney has publicly stated his willingness to debate the grassroots plan, telling STV News last month, "Of course I would be. I am a democrat. I lead a democratic political party and I have debated many important choices with my party over time." However, he has also been clear about his reservations, arguing that the original proposal—using a majority of list votes as a mandate—"would not work." Swinney emphasized to the BBC, "We [make independence a priority] by electing a majority of SNP MSPs to the Scottish Parliament and then taking forward the democratic path to independence, which will secure the future of our country. We only get that referendum if a majority of SNP MSPs are elected next May."
The debate comes at a time when the independence movement is seeking renewed momentum. Just this week, the Scottish Government published a new paper on independence, with Swinney declaring his determination for the SNP to secure a majority in the 2026 Holyrood election. Addressing critics who claim it is too soon for another referendum, Swinney pointed out a demographic shift: "By 2030, there will be one million young Scots eligible to vote who were too young in 2014. Some of them will not even have been born then. That seems like a generation to me."
For now, all eyes are on Aberdeen, where the SNP’s internal debate will play out in the open. Will the party embrace the grassroots’ call for a fixed "independence day," or stick with the leadership’s more measured approach? The outcome could shape Scotland’s constitutional future for years to come. As the conference approaches, the only certainty is that the question of independence—far from being the politics of yesteryear—remains very much alive, with passions running high on all sides.
In the end, the SNP faces a defining moment: whether to set a date with destiny or continue the long, winding road toward self-determination. The stakes, for party unity and for Scotland’s future, could hardly be higher.
