As Scotland’s political landscape braces for yet another pivotal moment, First Minister John Swinney has thrust the question of independence back into the spotlight—this time with a promise of a "fresh start" if voters choose to break from the United Kingdom. The Scottish National Party (SNP) leader, who succeeded Humza Yousaf in 2024 after a turbulent period for the party, unveiled his latest independence blueprint at the SNP conference in Aberdeen on October 11-12, 2025. Brandishing a new civil service-produced document, Swinney set out his vision for an independent Scotland, though critics quickly noted the paper was, as The Scotsman put it, "heavy on claims and light on detail."
Swinney’s push comes at a time when the SNP is eyeing a remarkable fifth consecutive Holyrood term in the May 2026 elections. Yet, the party’s path to another victory—and to independence—looks increasingly fraught, both from within and outside its own ranks. The conference, intended as a rallying point, instead revealed deep fissures in the movement, with senior nationalist figures openly condemning Swinney’s strategy and warning that the SNP stands little chance of winning an outright majority in the Scottish Parliament next year.
According to the Scottish Daily Express, Swinney’s independence plan—dubbed Scexit by some—was forced through the party conference, despite a spirited challenge from internal rebels. These dissenters advocated for a more aggressive approach: making the 2026 Holyrood election a de facto referendum by pooling all pro-independence votes. Their amendment was shot down, and with it, perhaps, a sense of unity among independence supporters. As one delegate, Graham McCormick, colorfully put it, the proposals were akin to backing a "donkey"—a clear jab at what he saw as an unworkable strategy.
Criticism wasn’t limited to anonymous delegates. Former SNP MP Joanna Cherry was particularly scathing, writing on social media, "Sad but not surprised to see the SNP rebels vanquished once again. It reinforces my decision to stop banging my head off a brick wall. There is no way the SNP will win the election outright. This strategy is just about maximising their vote so the gravy train can continue. It’s also about using false promises about Indy to distract attention from their record. The problem is that when they miss their target as they will, unionists will say that the issue has been put to bed for another five years, but of course maybe that’s what they want."
The Alba Party, led by Kenny MacAskill, echoed these frustrations. MacAskill called the SNP’s plan a "missed opportunity to unite the independence movement and pursue a clear, credible and popular strategy to seek and achieve a mandate for independence." He accused the SNP of "effectively handing a veto to Westminster over whether or not Scotland can be become independent, even if there is a pro-independence majority after next year’s election." In MacAskill’s view, the SNP is "putting the electoral interests of the SNP ahead of the needs of the country," a sentiment that found resonance among the 43 SNP branches that backed a more assertive plan conceived by former First Minister Alex Salmond.
The heart of the matter, of course, is the mechanism by which Scotland could achieve independence. Swinney’s latest strategy involves negotiating with the UK Government for a Section 30 order—a legal prerequisite for holding a binding referendum. Yet, as the Daily Record and others have reported, the Prime Minister is widely expected to reject any such request, regardless of the SNP’s performance in May 2026. Swinney has teased a "secret" plan for what happens if Westminster refuses, but he’s refused to reveal details, prompting critics to suggest there may be no real plan at all.
Defending his approach in a series of interviews on October 12, Swinney pointed to historical precedent. "In 2016 and 2021 in the Scottish Parliament elections, the SNP did not achieve a majority in the Scottish Parliament, and there was a pro-independence majority those two parliamentary terms. It is the obstructiveness of the UK Government preventing us enabling the people of Scotland to decide their own constitutional future," he said. Swinney argued that the 2011 election, when the SNP did secure a majority and a referendum followed, sets the template for what he hopes to achieve: "For everyone knows that a referendum is the way forward in which people are asked a direct question, and the outcome of that referendum was respected by all sides."
But Swinney’s critics say the comparison doesn’t hold. Eleven years after the failed 2014 independence referendum, the SNP still hasn’t produced clear answers to fundamental questions—what currency an independent Scotland would use, whether it could rejoin the European Union, or how it might compel any UK government to permit a second referendum. According to The Scotsman, the latest government paper on independence lacks any new thinking on these big barriers, leaving the party’s core pitch little more than "everything will be brilliant."
The SNP’s challenges aren’t solely about process or policy. Swinney’s support for self-identification for trans people has put him at odds with the majority of Scottish voters. A 2025 Supreme Court ruling affirmed that, in law, sex is a matter of biology rather than feelings, and 60 percent of voters back this decision, while fewer than 20 percent oppose it. This stance, combined with the party’s perceived lack of progress on independence, has eroded SNP support and allowed Labour to make significant gains. In the 2024 general election, the SNP’s representation in Westminster plummeted from 48 seats in 2019 to just 9, while Labour surged to 37 seats—a dramatic reversal of fortunes.
Despite these setbacks, the SNP faithful gathered in Aberdeen remain hopeful, perhaps even defiant. Swinney himself has shown little sign of wavering. Asked if he would resign should the SNP fail to win a Holyrood majority, he demurred, insisting he was "here for the long haul" and had pledged to lead a party capable of delivering independence. "I think Keir Starmer is in enormous difficulty with the strength of SNP support in Scotland. The return of an SNP majority in Scotland… would demonstrate the weakness of the Prime Minister," Swinney remarked, suggesting that Starmer’s position could become untenable if Labour fails to beat the SNP in Scotland. Yet, as The Scotsman wryly observed, Swinney showed no such willingness to step aside after his own party’s loss in 2024.
With the general election looming and the independence movement divided over strategy, Scotland faces a period of profound uncertainty. The SNP’s prospects for a fifth term remain strong, but the path to independence has never looked more complicated—or more contested. Whether John Swinney’s "fresh start" is enough to overcome internal dissent, public skepticism, and Westminster’s resistance is a question only the voters, and perhaps history, can answer.
