On October 26, 2025, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico made headlines across Europe when he firmly declared that Slovakia would not participate in any financial scheme designed to help Ukraine cover its military expenses. According to SME, Fico stated, "I refuse Slovakia’s participation in any financial scheme that would help Ukraine cope with its military expenses." His remarks, delivered at a time of mounting economic and political pressure across the continent, have sent ripples through the European Union and beyond.
Fico’s position was made even clearer as he voiced his opposition to the European Union’s proposal to confiscate Russian assets worth 140 billion euros to support Ukraine. "We would be facing a huge number of international legal disputes," Fico warned, as reported by SME. He further cautioned that any such move could provoke retaliatory actions from Russia, including the potential seizure of European-owned buildings or ships. The Slovak leader’s comments underscore the delicate and often fraught balancing act smaller EU nations must perform as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on.
Despite his hard line on military aid, Fico was quick to point out that Slovakia would not abandon Ukraine entirely. He committed to continuing humanitarian support, particularly medical assistance and demining operations, but drew a sharp line at funding weapons or direct military support. "No lethal weapons will reach Ukraine for free," Fico insisted, though he added that Slovakia would still be open to selling ammunition to Ukraine. The prime minister also left the door open for further political debate, stating he did not rule out convening an extraordinary session of Slovakia’s parliament to discuss the issue in greater depth.
Fico’s stance comes at a time when Europe is grappling with how best to respond to the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has now dragged on for more than three years. The continent is not just contending with the humanitarian and security fallout, but also with the economic aftershocks that have been felt far beyond Ukraine’s borders. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Russia itself, where the Kremlin is facing a host of internal challenges that threaten to destabilize President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power.
On October 27, 2025, The Telegraph reported that President Putin is increasingly wary of a possible coup d'état, as social discontent and economic difficulties continue to mount. The prolonged conflict with Ukraine, coupled with ever-tightening Western sanctions, has deepened fears within the Kremlin about the regime’s internal stability. The Russian economy, once touted as resilient, is now teetering on the edge of a quarterly recession, with inflation having soared by over 40% since the war began.
The financial picture is bleak. Russia’s public debt has reached a record high, and the Ministry of Finance forecasts a budget deficit of 2.6% of GDP in 2025—about 5.7 trillion rubles, which is five times more than originally planned. To address the shortfall, the Russian government is preparing to increase VAT to 22% starting in 2026 and ramp up domestic borrowing, which will only add to the country’s mounting debt burden. Fuel prices have spiked—another symptom of Ukraine’s successful strikes on Russian oil refineries—while revenues from oil exports are dwindling.
The strain on Russia’s defense sector is particularly acute. Craig Kennedy, an expert at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, told The Telegraph that the debt of Russian military enterprises has ballooned to 190 billion dollars, or about 37% of Russia’s annual budget. This staggering figure highlights the enormous cost of sustaining the war effort, even as the Kremlin’s traditional sources of revenue come under pressure.
International sanctions have only compounded these woes. The recent imposition of new sanctions by U.S. President Donald Trump against Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil has further squeezed the Kremlin’s finances. Following these measures, China and India—Russia’s main oil customers—have begun to reduce their imports, dealing a serious blow to the country’s foreign exchange reserves. Analysts cited by The Telegraph believe that Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on China, a shift that could have long-term consequences for Moscow’s foreign policy independence.
As economic pressures mount, the Kremlin has responded with a familiar playbook: tighten control at home and discredit the opposition. According to Angela Stent, honorary director of Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian Studies, "this has become a standard Kremlin tactic during periods of internal instability." The government’s efforts to silence dissent have taken a dramatic turn. On October 14, 2025, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) opened a criminal case against former Yukos head Mikhail Khodorkovsky and 22 members of the Anti-War Committee, accusing them of "attempting to seize power by force." Khodorkovsky, who now lives in London, dismissed the charges as "completely false and aimed at creating fear."
These developments reflect the profound uncertainty that now surrounds Russia’s political future. With the economy faltering and the public growing restless, Putin’s inner circle is working overtime to shore up support and suppress any hint of rebellion. Yet, as history has shown, authoritarian regimes under economic duress can be unpredictable—and sometimes brittle.
Meanwhile, the debate over how to support Ukraine continues to divide European capitals. Fico’s unequivocal refusal to fund Ukraine’s military, even as he pledges humanitarian aid, illustrates the complex calculus facing EU leaders. While some countries advocate for robust support—including the controversial plan to seize Russian assets—others, like Slovakia under Fico, worry about the potential for legal entanglements and Russian retaliation.
For Ukraine, the stakes are existential. The country’s ability to withstand Russian aggression depends not just on its own resilience, but on the willingness of its partners to provide meaningful support. Yet, as the fissures within Europe and Russia’s own economic turmoil make clear, the path forward is anything but straightforward.
As October draws to a close, both Slovakia’s political maneuvering and Russia’s internal struggles are reminders that the war’s consequences are far-reaching and unpredictable. Whether these pressures will lead to a change in policy—or a change in leadership—remains to be seen. For now, Europe watches and waits, hoping that a fragile balance can hold a little longer.
