On October 5, 2025, President Claudia Sheinbaum took to the stage at Mexico City’s historic Zocalo Square, flanked by supporters and government officials, to deliver her first State of the Union address. The moment was thick with symbolism and significance: Sheinbaum, a climate scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, is the first woman to preside over Mexico, and she does so at a time when her party, Morena, commands near-total legislative power and the political opposition lies in shambles.
Sheinbaum’s ascent to the presidency last year was nothing short of resounding. According to Mexico News Daily, her sweeping electoral victory not only placed her in the National Palace but also handed Morena control of both chambers of government. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), once the unassailable titan of Mexican politics, failed for the first time in decades to even produce a viable presidential candidate. Meanwhile, the center-right National Action Party (PAN) fractured under the weight of ideological and leadership disputes, leaving its candidate, Xóchitl Gálvez, unable to mount a serious challenge. Nuevo León Governor Samuel García, representing the Citizens’ Movement (MC), withdrew early in the race, further underscoring the opposition’s disarray.
This collapse of traditional parties has left Morena’s left-populist coalition largely unchallenged. The PRI, historically a centrist big-tent party, now leans toward moderate economic liberalization, while PAN champions market reforms and rule of law. MC, the youngest of the bunch, pushes for progressive reforms and transparent governance. Yet, as Mexico News Daily reports, none have managed to present a compelling counter-narrative to Morena’s broad social spending, anticorruption messaging, and its rallying cry: “the poor come first.” Attempts at forming coalitions have been stymied by internal divisions and a persistent public trust in Morena’s promise of transformation.
But the story isn’t just about personalities or party politics. Mexico’s political culture has long favored moderation. Polling from the Latin American Public Opinion Project reveals that 51% of Mexicans see themselves as centrists—far more than those who identify with the left or right. This broad center complicates efforts to build the kind of polarized, anti-elite right-wing movement that has swept through other Latin American countries. Even celebrity activist Eduardo Verástegui, who tried to channel the populist energy of Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, failed to gain traction, his campaign floundering amid controversy and a lack of mainstream appeal.
Meanwhile, Morena has proven adept at co-opting traditional conservative constituencies. Both Sheinbaum and her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), have paired progressive rhetoric with commitments to family and tradition, making them tricky targets for the opposition. The party itself is a broad coalition, blending state-directed spending, ties to local power brokers, and left-populist messaging. Many former PRI members and political elites have migrated to Morena, drawn by the party’s momentum and prospects for influence.
Mexico’s electoral rules add another twist. The absence of second-round runoffs means parties must build wide, inclusive coalitions to win. This dynamic pushes most mainstream figures toward the center, further starving fringe or polarizing movements of oxygen. Morena’s dominance, however, is not a mere replay of the old PRI machine. Instead, it’s a new formula for a new era, one that, for now, appears stable in the face of elite defections and internal rivalries.
Sheinbaum’s mandate has been bolstered by the legacy of AMLO’s sweeping reforms. According to Mexico News Daily, changes to the military, police, and judicial systems have provided Morena with tools to neutralize political opposition. Recent judicial reforms, which allowed Sheinbaum to help elect key allies to the Supreme Court at the expense of more conservative justices, have sparked nationwide strikes by judicial workers and ignited public debate about the future of judicial independence and investor trust. Supporters argue these reforms democratize justice and establish a more authentic rule of law, while critics warn they risk cementing one-party dominance and damaging Mexico’s trade relations, particularly with the United States and Canada.
The weakening of the National Electoral Institute (INE) and the National Institute for Transparency (INAI) has further limited the institutional levers available to opposition parties. Observers caution that such concentration of power, with only modest checks and weak pluralism, could create long-term challenges for Mexico’s democracy. Yet, for now, Sheinbaum enjoys approval ratings surpassing 70%, as reported by Reuters, with little organized dissent in sight.
Sheinbaum’s first year has also been marked by a focus on Mexico’s complex and critical trade relationship with the United States, its top trade partner. At the Zocalo, she expressed optimism about reaching favorable agreements with the U.S. and other countries. “I am confident we will reach a good agreement with the United States and all nations of the world regarding our trade relations,” she told the crowd, according to Reuters. Sheinbaum highlighted Mexico’s advances in technology—including electric vehicles, semiconductors, satellites, and drones—as part of adapting to a rapidly changing trade environment.
The free trade agreement with the U.S. and Canada, which has largely shielded Mexico from tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, is up for review in 2026. Sheinbaum’s government has imposed tariffs on countries like China, underscoring a nuanced approach that balances external pressures with fostering local innovation. In a symbolic nod to national sovereignty, she joked about naming a new railway from Mexico City to Nuevo Laredo the “Gulf of Mexico Train”—a playful response to U.S. policy decisions and a reminder of Mexico’s independent streak.
According to Mexico News Daily and Reuters, Sheinbaum’s government plans to unveil further advances in made-in-Mexico technology projects in the coming weeks, signaling her administration’s commitment to innovation and competitiveness. Oil prices, meanwhile, rose about 1% at the start of trading on October 6, 2025, after OPEC+ announced a production increase, adding another layer of complexity to Mexico’s economic landscape.
As Sheinbaum’s presidency enters its second year, the opposition remains sidelined, and the political center holds firm. The scale of her victory, the collapse of her rivals, and the transformation of Mexico’s institutions mark a decisive moment for the country’s pragmatic, technocratic left. Whether a new challenger—left, right, or otherwise—can emerge to reshape the landscape remains to be seen. For now, Mexico’s future is being written by a leader with a remarkable mandate and a nation navigating both opportunity and uncertainty.
